Modified Chase System (Covers, +RL)

[billdo75]

Play for 8/10/2009:

D(A) - Arizona Diamondbacks -1½ +130 (-165 ML / 1st / 63.46% [7/7]), 4.75(0.77) to win 6.17(1.00) units

Other qualifying games on record:
New York Yankees +125 / -160 / 25.00% [9/3]
Florida Marlins +115 / -150 / 60.45% [6/8]
Colorado Rockies +145 / -150 / 56.52% [11/0]

Non-qualifying games on record:
None

Parlays:
11 - 6x 2 teams, 4x 3 teams, 1x 4 teams using ARI/NYY/FLO/COL, 4.4 to win 38.16 units overall

NOTE: The percentages above are a new little wrinkle I wanted to track. The numbers after the percentages indicate the number of times the team/opponent have been the play. The percentages are a weighted win/loss record. Take today's Arizona game, for example. Arizona has been 0-0 as THE play for the day(x4), 3-2 as a qualifying game(x2), and 0-2 as a non-qualifying game(x1). That results in a 6-6 weighted record, or 50.00%. Their opponent, the Mets, when bet against, have gone 0-0 as THE play, 5-1 as a qualifying game, and 0-1 as a non-qualifying game. That results in a 10-3 weighted record, or 76.92%. Those 2 numbers averaged together equal 63.46%. I had been kind of paper-tracking it the past couple days. Yesterday, the highest win pct on the board belonged to St Louis and they were the only qualifying play to cover, so I figured I would make it official from here on out. We'll see if it continues...

[do5000]

Hey billdo,

Nice work so far, even though were getting kinda deep in this chase...
interested to see how the "%" idea above works out.

GL!

[jakeandba]

ok my math is a little rusty and this might be useless info but plays that are:
+105 are 7-2
+110 are 6-10
+115 are 2-3
+120 are 4-0
+125 are 5-3
+130 are 2-3
+135 are 2-0
+140 are 1-1
+145 are 0-1
+160 are 0-1

going into today. Someone might want to review my math since math is my 5th language.

[mikeveli20]

Was thinking of doing my first round robin parlay tomorrow, but would like some verification from Bildo or someone that I have it correct. As of right now the plays for the regular system on Pinnacle are Atlanta (-178/+121), Arizona (-201/+103), Baltimore (-153/+134), and Minnesota (-201/+101). So if doing a parlay with $20 per unit would it go like this: 1 half unit ($10) on each of Atlanta/Arizona, Atlanta/Baltimore, Atlanta/Minnesota, Arizona/Baltimore, Arizona/Minnesota, Baltimore/Minnesota for a total of 3 units or $60. Correct?

Also, are we betting on the ML or the RL for these and if it's the RL is it still possible to do the hedged -1 RL betting method? And is the amount of unit we are laying down the amount we are risking per parlay or the amount we want to win per parlay? Lastly, are these parlays played in a chase style from day to day meaning if I lost all of them do I up my bet the next day to recover?

Thanks for your help.

[brandon m]

Howd those parlays do today bildo just glancing it looked like you should have hit a bunch of em?

[billdo75]

Was thinking of doing my first round robin parlay tomorrow, but would like some verification from Bildo or someone that I have it correct. As of right now the plays for the regular system on Pinnacle are Atlanta (-178/+121), Arizona (-201/+103), Baltimore (-153/+134), and Minnesota (-201/+101). So if doing a parlay with $20 per unit would it go like this: 1 half unit ($10) on each of Atlanta/Arizona, Atlanta/Baltimore, Atlanta/Minnesota, Arizona/Baltimore, Arizona/Minnesota, Baltimore/Minnesota for a total of 3 units or $60. Correct?

You got it! Best of luck, my friend!

Also, are we betting on the ML or the RL for these and if it's the RL is it still possible to do the hedged -1 RL betting method? And is the amount of unit we are laying down the amount we are risking per parlay or the amount we want to win per parlay? Lastly, are these parlays played in a chase style from day to day meaning if I lost all of them do I up my bet the next day to recover?

Thanks for your help.

We're always dealing with run lines here. Money lines are only used to determine the plays. I'm not going to run through the numbers, but if you were doing these round robin parlays with money line favorites, you would need sweeps just to turn a moderate profit. By using the +run lines, we can miss one or two and still realize a profit. Unless your book offers -1 run lines, you're out of luck as far as the hedge goes. The units represent the risked amount and DO NOT chase the parlays! Take a -150 favorite. That -150 represents roughly a 60% expected win percentage. When you parlay two -150 favorites, the expected win percentage becomes 60% x 60% = 36%. 60% is a comfortable number to chase...36% is not.

Howd those parlays do today bildo just glancing it looked like you should have hit a bunch of em?

4-7 on the parlays for +16.96 units. Because of my money management on the parlays (0.2 units per play on 5 teams, 0.4 units per play on 4 teams, and 1 unit per play on 3 teams), I realized a +6.79 profit from the parlays, along with the +6.17 for the chase for a grand total of +12.91 units on the day. I'll take that...

[mikeveli20]

4-7 on the parlays for +16.96 units. Because of my money management on the parlays (0.2 units per play on 5 teams, 0.4 units per play on 4 teams, and 1 unit per play on 3 teams), I realized a +6.79 profit from the parlays, along with the +6.17 for the chase for a grand total of +12.91 units on the day. I'll take that...

Excuse my ignorance, but how did you go from +16.96 units as you said first to only +6.79 profit? What happened to the other +10 units?

Also, how did you get 4 plays using 3 team parlays?

[do5000]

ok my math is a little rusty and this might be useless info but plays that are:
+105 are 7-2
+110 are 6-10
+115 are 2-3
+120 are 4-0
+125 are 5-3
+130 are 2-3
+135 are 2-0
+140 are 1-1
+145 are 0-1
+160 are 0-1

going into today. Someone might want to review my math since math is my 5th language.

This is really good stuff.
as you say, it might be useless, but if a pattern develops it would be a huge help.
Any chance somebody wants to keep track of this? maybe post the results at the end of each month?

[billdo75]

Excuse my ignorance, but how did you go from +16.96 units as you said first to only +6.79 profit? What happened to the other +10 units?

To keep things consistent, I wanted to express my winnings in terms of the chase units. On the chase, I'm always trying to win 1 unit. Relative to that 1 unit, I bet 0.2 units on 5-team robins (26 parlays for a total of 5.2 units risked), 0.4 units on 4-team robins (11 parlays for a total of 4.4 units risked), and 1 unit on 3-team robins (4 parlays for a total of 4 units). Because this was a 4-team day, the raw profit of +16.96 was at 1 unit per play. 16.96 x 0.4 = 6.79.

[billdo75]

I. Standard -1½ RL with no cap:
A plays: 15-15 L1, +2.07 units
B plays: 9-6 L1, +7.84 units
C plays: 3-3 L3, +2.19 units
D plays: 2-1 W2, +7.85 units
E plays: 0-1 L1, -9.57 units
F plays: 1-0 W1, +19.62 units
Chase record: 30-0, +30.00 units

II. Standard -1½ RL with chase capped at C bets:
A plays: 17-16 W1, +3.24 units
B plays: 9-7 L1, +6.10 units
C plays: 4-3 L2, +5.75 units
Chase record: 30-3, +15.09 units

III. Hedged -1 RL with no cap:
A plays: 18-12-4 L1, +7.65 units
B plays: 7-5-0 L1, +5.64 units
C plays: 2-3-0 L3, -1.19 units
D plays: 3-0-2 W3, +17.90 units
Chase record: 30-0, +30.00 units

IV. Hedged -1 RL with chase capped at C bets:
A plays: 21-12-6 W1, +10.65 units
B plays: 7-5-0 L1, +5.64 units
C plays: 2-3-0 L3, -1.19 units
Chase record: 30-3, +15.10 units

All filtered plays at -1½: 78-79, +13.97 units, +10.77% ROI
All filtered plays at -1: 78-55-24 +33.46 units, +25.79% ROI
All unfiltered plays at -1½: 17-23, -9.90 units, -20.75% ROI
All unfiltered plays at -1: 17-19-4, -5.30 units, -11.11% ROI

Parlays: 8-36, +1.77 units

[Engine]

How sweet wasn't that. Next time we will get em all..

Must say I like how you organize and present stats and picks.

So big up to you billdo!

[brandon m]

Nice day bildo, to bad the yanks couldn't come through.

[billdo75]

Play for 8/11/2009:

A - Atlanta Braves -1½ +105 (-201 ML / T-2nd / 38.18% [7/14]), 0.95 to win 1.00 unit

Other qualifying games on record:
Milwaukee Brewers +145 / -142 / 37.36% [5/15]
St Louis Cardinals +135 / -142 / 69.58% [9/16]

Non-qualifying games on record:
New York Yankees -150 / -220 / 22.73% [10/4]
Minnesota Twins -115 / -201 / 44.08% [4/9]
Arizona Diamondbacks -115 / -201 / 72.43% [8/8]
Colorado Rockies +100 / -171 / 64.14% [12/11]

Parlays:
4 - 3x 2 teams, 1x 3 teams using ATL/MIL/STL, 4.00 to win 23.40 units overall

GL, everybody!

[mikeveli20]

How come the Brewers and Cardinals are qualifying plays even though they both have a -142 ML?

[billdo75]

How come the Brewers and Cardinals are qualifying plays even though they both have a -142 ML?

Occasionally, Covers.com will show an 8 cent line as the opener. Since they normally show 20 cent lines, I make the conversion. a -142/+134 has a no-vig line of roughly ±137. The closest 20 cent line is -150/+130 at ±138. That's the number I use for determination and that's why both those games qualified. I don't like the idea of losing a potential play because of the vig.

[mikelius]

You are doing an excelent job. Keep it on!!

I´m with you on Atlanta!!!


And colorado is not qualifayed? I don´t understand.

Good luck everybody

[billdo75]

Braves win 8-1. Went 0-4 on the parlays for a net -4.00 units. Updated records:

I. Standard -1½ RL with no cap:
A plays: 16-15 W1, +3.07 units
B plays: 9-6 L1, +7.84 units
C plays: 3-3 L3, +2.19 units
D plays: 2-1 W2, +7.85 units
E plays: 0-1 L1, -9.57 units
F plays: 1-0 W1, +19.62 units
Chase record: 31-0, +31.00 units

II. Standard -1½ RL with chase capped at C bets:
A plays: 18-16 W2, +4.24 units
B plays: 9-7 L1, +6.10 units
C plays: 4-3 L2, +5.75 units
Chase record: 31-3, +16.09 units

III. Hedged -1 RL with no cap:
A plays: 19-12-4 W1, +8.65 units
B plays: 7-5-0 L1, +5.64 units
C plays: 2-3-0 L3, -1.19 units
D plays: 3-0-2 W3, +17.90 units
Chase record: 31-0, +31.00 units

IV. Hedged -1 RL with chase capped at C bets:
A plays: 22-12-6 W2, +11.65 units
B plays: 7-5-0 L1, +5.64 units
C plays: 2-3-0 L3, -1.19 units
Chase record: 31-3, +16.10 units

All filtered plays at -1½: 79-81, +13.54 units, +10.25% ROI
All filtered plays at -1: 79-57-24 +33.03 units, +25.00% ROI
All unfiltered plays at -1½: 19-25, -10.05 units, -19.14% ROI
All unfiltered plays at -1: 19-21-4, -5.45 units, -10.38% ROI

Parlays: 8-40, -2.23 units

[Engine]

If a F-play lose, would there be a G-play then?

Thanks!

[FreeFall]

If a F-play lose, would there be a G-play then?

Thanks!

Yes but practically I have no idea how you would afford that.

[brandon m]

If you play with a 20 dollar unit you could goto f pretty easy, and grind out some decent cash, 20*31 is 620 bones.

[billdo75]

Play for 8/12/2009:

A - Minnesota Twins -1½ +105 (-210 ML / T-5th / 41.11% [5/10]), 0.95 to win 1.00 unit

Other qualifying games on record:
San Francisco Giants +105 / -210 / 26.19% [8/2]
Arizona Diamondbacks +110 / -180 / 74.02% [9/9]
Florida Marlins +110 / -170 / 64.09% [7/9]

Non-qualifying games on record:
St Louis Cardinals -155 / -310 / 61.18% [10/17]
New York Yankees -125 / -255 / 30.74% [11/5]
Atlanta Braves -130 / -240 / 46.61% [8/15]
Boston Red Sox -120 / -230 / 43.06% [9/3]
Colorado Rockies -135 / -230 / 56.58% [13/12]

Parlays:
11 - 6x 2 teams, 4x 3 teams, 1x 4 teams using MIN/SFG/ARI/FLO, 4.40 to win 27.64 units overall

GL, everybody!

[mikeveli20]

I still can't figure out how you're getting 4x3 teams for your parlays. Can you explain to me how you are you arranging the teams?

[Andrew1975]

I still can't figure out how you're getting 4x3 teams for your parlays. Can you explain to me how you are you arranging the teams?

1. Twins / Giants / Diamondbacks
2. Twins / Giants / Marlins
3. Twins / Diamondbacks / Marlins
4. Giants / Diamondbacks / Marlins

[mikeveli20]

1. Twins / Giants / Diamondbacks
2. Twins / Giants / Marlins
3. Twins / Diamondbacks / Marlins
4. Giants / Diamondbacks / Marlins

Thanks.

[mikeveli20]

Well, after my 2nd day of playing the parlays, I'm down a total of 6.64 units on those. Hopefully a 3 or 4 team sweep hits soon to make that back and then some. I had the same teams as Bildo today so we both would have hit the SF/MIN and that's it. Arizona had so many chances today and just blew it and the Marlins...well they're probably the most inconsistent team in baseball right now.

The losses hurt less when my chase B bet of Boston over Detroit hit (I was able to get them at +109 RL on Pinnancle last night). However that only lasted temporarily because once I logged in I discovered that the bet was canceled because of a pitching change

The Twins won so I'm glad Bildo hit his bet, but I hope it's a better day overall for me tomorrow. As of right now it's looking like Brewers on my B bet for the chase, and a Brewers/Twins parlay depending on how much the lines change between now and when Pinnacle allows you to make a parlay (8:30am PST). BOL to all!

[billdo75]

Twins win 7-1. Went 1-10 on the parlays for a net -2.72 units. Updated records:

I. Standard -1½ RL with no cap:
A plays: 17-15 W2, +4.07 units
B plays: 9-6 L1, +7.84 units
C plays: 3-3 L3, +2.19 units
D plays: 2-1 W2, +7.85 units
E plays: 0-1 L1, -9.57 units
F plays: 1-0 W1, +19.62 units
Chase record: 32-0, +32.00 units

II. Standard -1½ RL with chase capped at C bets:
A plays: 19-16 W3, +5.24 units
B plays: 9-7 L1, +6.10 units
C plays: 4-3 L2, +5.75 units
Chase record: 32-3, +17.09 units

III. Hedged -1 RL with no cap:
A plays: 20-12-4 W2, +9.65 units
B plays: 7-5-0 L1, +5.64 units
C plays: 2-3-0 L3, -1.19 units
D plays: 3-0-2 W3, +17.90 units
Chase record: 32-0, +32.00 units

IV. Hedged -1 RL with chase capped at C bets:
A plays: 23-12-6 W3, +12.65 units
B plays: 7-5-0 L1, +5.64 units
C plays: 2-3-0 L3, -1.19 units
Chase record: 32-3, +17.10 units

All filtered plays at -1½: 81-83, +13.72 units, +10.10% ROI
All filtered plays at -1: 81-59-24 +33.21 units, +24.45% ROI
All unfiltered plays at -1½: 23-26, -7.30 units, -12.34% ROI
All unfiltered plays at -1: 23-21-5, -1.45 units, -2.45% ROI

Parlays: 9-50, -4.95 units

[billdo75]

Play for 8/13/2009:

A - Minnesota Twins -1½ +110 (-175 ML / T-3rd / 53.08% [6/11]), 0.91 to win 1.00 unit

Other qualifying games on record:
Florida Marlins +130 / -165 / 58.00% [8/10]
Cincinnati Reds +130 / -160 / 38.13% [4/16]

Non-qualifying games on record:
Colorado Rockies -125 / -250 / 65.52% [14/13]
New York Yankees -120 / -215 / 55.83% [12/8]
Milwaukee Brewers -110 / -175 / 34.19% [6/16]

Parlays:
4 - 3x 2 teams, 1x 3 teams using MIN/FLO/CIN, 2.00 to win 11.03 units overall

GL, everybody!

NOTE: I decided to change my money management on the parlays. I'm now risking 0.5 units each on 3 teams, 0.2 units each on 4 teams, and 0.1 units each on 5 teams, relative to the unit I'm chasing. Because there's such a high volume of parlays, I don't want to wipe out all my gain (and then some) from the chases.

In regards to the percentages I added a few days back. Just for the record, their correlation to W/L so far is -0.01, pretty much no correlation at all.

[BlueJays]

Damn! MIN lost and now we have to start chasing!

[billdo75]

Twins lose 4-5. Went 1-3 on the parlays for a net +0.65 units. Updated records:

I. Standard -1½ RL with no cap:
A plays: 17-16 L1, +3.16 units
B plays: 9-6 L1, +7.84 units
C plays: 3-3 L3, +2.19 units
D plays: 2-1 W2, +7.85 units
E plays: 0-1 L1, -9.57 units
F plays: 1-0 W1, +19.62 units
Chase record: 32-0, +31.09 units **Chasing**

II. Standard -1½ RL with chase capped at C bets:
A plays: 19-17 L1, +4.33 units
B plays: 9-7 L1, +6.10 units
C plays: 4-3 L2, +5.75 units
Chase record: 32-3, +16.18 units **Chasing**

III. Hedged -1 RL with no cap:
A plays: 20-13-4 L1, +8.74 units
B plays: 7-5-0 L1, +5.64 units
C plays: 2-3-0 L3, -1.19 units
D plays: 3-0-2 W3, +17.90 units
Chase record: 32-0, +31.09 units **Chasing**

IV. Hedged -1 RL with chase capped at C bets:
A plays: 23-13-6 L1, +11.74 units
B plays: 7-5-0 L1, +5.64 units
C plays: 2-3-0 L3, -1.19 units
Chase record: 32-3, +16.19 units **Chasing**

All filtered plays at -1½: 83-84, +14.81 units, +10.71% ROI
All filtered plays at -1: 83-60-24 +34.30 units, +24.81% ROI
All unfiltered plays at -1½: 26-26, -4.30 units, -6.86% ROI
All unfiltered plays at -1: 26-21-5, +1.55 units, +2.47% ROI

Parlays: 10-53, -4.30 units

[billdo75]

Play for 8/14/2009:

B - Cincinnati Reds -1½ +115 (-180 ML / T-5th / 44.79% [5/17]), 1.66 to win 1.91 unit

Other qualifying games on record:
Florida Marlins +120 / -180 / 88.10% [9/2]

Non-qualifying games on record:
Chicago Cubs -130 / -235 / 73.93% [13/14]
St Louis Cardinals -115 / -225 / 58.11% [11/17]
New York Yankees +100 / -205 / 60.41% [13/9]
Minnesota Twins +100 / -185 / 36.69% [7/13]

Parlays:
1 - 1x 2 teams using CIN/FLO, 0.50 to win 1.87 units overall

GL, everybody!

[brandon m]

Any reason you took the reds over the marlins?

[billdo75]

Any reason you took the reds over the marlins?

Good point. I guess I was in such a hurry to get the plays in that I didn't happen to notice they were both at -180 ML. According to the rules set forth, Florida should be the play. Since they're close enough on the RL and the total would've made Cincy the play at the next tiebreak level, I'll stick with them. This same thing happened once before, on 7/10 I believe. Ended up playing both SFG and TBD to the tune of 8-0 and 6-0, respectively. Here's hoping for a repeat performance...

[BlueJays]

So it is CIN or FLA?
Thanks!

[brandon m]

Lol gotcha, I think I'm gonna play em both and parlay I like both teams today.

[mikeveli20]

I can't believe the Marlins gave up 4 runs in the top of the 9th to not cover the -1.5 RL. They were my play for today and now I'm heading to the D bet