Modified Chase System (Covers, +RL)

**billdo75** · 06-25-09, 08:49 AM

Well, looks like I've run into a little snag. It appears Covers.com has changed where they're pulling their opening line. Instead of being a true 20 cent opening line, they're all 8 cent lines now. In the event of a 20 cent opening line moving to an 8 cent daily line, how does that happen exactly? Say for example the book is getting a perfect split on each side, so the line doesn't need adjustment. Does a -140/+120 game move to -134/+126? If that's the case, it would actually shrink the pool of -150+ favorites. Probably not a massive difference, but still. I thought about using a different line, but the thread title indicates Covers, so I'm kinda stuck.

Just for future reference, if the Covers.com opening lines are not the standard 20 cent lines, I will convert them as mentioned above. A -120/+112 game would become a -126/+106 game when checking opening lines.

**billdo75** · 06-25-09, 10:38 AM

Play for 6/25/2009:

A - Seattle Mariners -1½ +110 (-179 ML / 1st), $4.55 to win $5.01

**billdo75** · 06-26-09, 12:52 AM

Mariners win 9-3.

A plays: 2-5 W1, - $10.71
B plays: 3-2 W1, + $11.97
C plays: 2-0 W2, + $33.77

Overall: 7-0, + $35.03

**billdo75** · 06-26-09, 10:52 AM

Play for 6/26/2009:

A - Los Angeles Dodgers -1½ +125 (-180 ML / 2nd), $4.00 to win $5.00

**billdo75** · 06-28-09, 12:19 AM

I was having problems getting my posts in this morning (turns out all I had to do was log out and log back in...) and I was gone all day. Father-in-law ended up at the hospital with heart failure

Anyways, on with the results and the plays from earlier today...

Dodgers win 8-2.

A plays: 3-5 W2, - $5.71
B plays: 3-2 W1, + $11.97
C plays: 2-0 W2, + $33.77

Overall: 8-0, + $40.03

Play for 6/27/2009:

A - Texas Rangers -1½ +105 (-150 ML / T-3rd), $4.76 to win $5.00

Rangers lose 3-7.

A plays: 3-6 L1, - $10.47
B plays: 3-2 W1, + $11.97
C plays: 2-0 W2, + $33.77

Overall: 8-0, + $40.03 ** Chasing **

**jakeandba** · 06-28-09, 11:04 AM

just wanted to know if there were any plays for today? sorry to hear about Father in Law..

**billdo75** · 06-28-09, 11:27 AM

Play for 6/28/2009:

B - Los Angeles Dodgers -1½ +110 (-200 ML / 1st), $8.88 to win $9.77

**billdo75** · 06-28-09, 11:12 PM

Dodgers lose 2-4.

A plays: 3-6 L1, - $10.47
B plays: 3-3 L1, + $3.09
C plays: 2-0 W2, + $33.77

Overall: 8-0, + $40.03 ** Chasing **

**billdo75** · 06-29-09, 10:43 AM

Play for 6/29/2009:

C - Florida Marlins -1½ +110 (-200 ML / 1st), $16.95 to win $18.65

**billdo75** · 06-29-09, 10:41 PM

Marlins win 4-2.

A plays: 3-6 L1, - $10.47
B plays: 3-3 L1, + $3.09
C plays: 3-0 W3, + $52.42

Overall: 9-0, + $45.04

**do5000** · 06-30-09, 08:45 AM

so far so good!

keep it up billdo

**billdo75** · 06-30-09, 11:24 AM

Play for 6/30/2009:

A - St Louis Cardinals -1½ +105 (-205 ML / 2nd), $4.76 to win $5.00

**Samson15** · 06-30-09, 11:41 AM

Lets get it!!

**billdo75** · 06-30-09, 09:59 PM

Cardinals lose 3-6.

A plays: 3-7 L2, - $15.23
B plays: 3-3 L1, + $3.09
C plays: 3-0 W3, + $52.42

Overall: 9-0, + $45.04 ** Chasing **

**billdo75** · 07-01-09, 11:12 AM

Play for 7/1/2009:

B - Florida Marlins -1½ +125 (-170 ML / 3rd), $7.81 to win $9.76

**billdo75** · 07-01-09, 03:43 PM

Marlins win 5-3.

A plays: 3-7 L2, - $15.23
B plays: 4-3 W1, + $12.85
C plays: 3-0 W3, + $52.42

Overall: 10-0, + $50.04

**billdo75** · 07-02-09, 11:12 AM

Play for 7/2/2009:

A - Chicago White Sox -1½ +110 (-165 ML / 2nd), $4.55 to win $5.01

**billdo75** · 07-02-09, 10:41 PM

White Sox win 4-1.

A plays: 4-7 W1, - $10.22
B plays: 4-3 W1, + $12.85
C plays: 3-0 W3, + $52.42

Overall: 11-0, + $55.05

**billdo75** · 07-03-09, 11:29 AM

Play for 7/3/2009:

A - Chicago Cubs -1½ +115 (-170 ML / 2nd), $4.35 to win $5.00

**billdo75** · 07-03-09, 10:18 PM

Cubs lose 2-1.

A plays: 4-8 L1, - $14.57
B plays: 4-3 W1, + $12.85
C plays: 3-0 W3, + $52.42

Overall: 11-0, + $55.05 ** Chasing **

**billdo75** · 07-04-09, 12:36 PM

Play for 7/4/2009:

B - Los Angeles Angels -1½ +120 (-165 ML / 3rd), $7.79 to win $9.35

**billdo75** · 07-05-09, 12:03 AM

Angels win 11-4.

A plays: 4-8 L1, - $14.57
B plays: 5-3 W2, + $22.20
C plays: 3-0 W3, + $52.42

Overall: 12-0, + $60.05

**jakeandba** · 07-05-09, 06:34 AM

nice call bro thanks for the pic

**billdo75** · 07-05-09, 12:07 PM

Play for 7/5/2009:

A - Los Angeles Angels -1½ +115 (-185 ML / T-3rd), $4.35 to win $5.00

**billdo75** · 07-05-09, 05:44 PM

Angels win 9-6. The Angels are 4-0 as a system play with 3 B wins and 1 A win. Nice.

A plays: 5-8 W1, - $9.57
B plays: 5-3 W2, + $22.20
C plays: 3-0 W3, + $52.42

Overall: 13-0, + $65.05

**jakeandba** · 07-05-09, 08:28 PM

nice call bro

**Foghorn** · 07-06-09, 10:35 AM

Through your tracking, have you noticed any trends of any teams that are -155 or more, playing against teams with team records under .500 versus teams over .500 ?????? Also, home team plays vs away team plays.............. thanks for you work......

**billdo75** · 07-06-09, 10:54 AM

Play for 7/5/2009:

A - San Francisco Giants -1½ +125 (-175 ML / T-3rd), $4.00 to win $5.00

**billdo75** · 07-06-09, 12:09 PM

Originally posted by Foghorn

Through your tracking, have you noticed any trends of any teams that are -155 or more, playing against teams with team records under .500 versus teams over .500 ?????? Also, home team plays vs away team plays.............. thanks for you work......

Since you asked, I went back and put in the team records at the time of the game so I could filter the results and here they are. Results given as straight wagers instead of tiered chase wagers and N=.500 record. Also, I started tracking all qualifying plays as of 7/3, so there are some extra results that haven't been posted:

WW 4-5 W2, -0.43 units YTD
WN 1-0 W1, +1.00 units YTD
WL 9-6 W1, +3.69 units YTD
NW 0-1 L1, -0.87 units YTD
NN 0-0 YTD
NL 2-3 L1, -0.37 units YTD
LW 1-0 W1, +1.00 units YTD
LN 0-0 YTD
LL 1-2 L1, -0.60 units YTD

Home 15-15 W5, +2.25 units YTD
Away 3-2 L1, +1.17 units YTD

**billdo75** · 07-07-09, 08:40 AM

Giants lose 5-4.

A plays: 5-9 L1, - $13.57
B plays: 5-3 W2, + $22.20
C plays: 3-0 W3, + $52.42

Overall: 13-0, + $65.05 ** Chasing **

**do5000** · 07-07-09, 09:33 AM

this looks really great. if it keeps up might be worthwhile to skip the A bets...

**billdo75** · 07-07-09, 11:09 AM

Play for 7/5/2009:

B - Chicago White Sox -1½ +125 (-180 ML / 4th, W vs L), $7.20 to win $9.00

**Foghorn** · 07-07-09, 03:15 PM

Originally posted by billdo75

Since you asked, I went back and put in the team records at the time of the game so I could filter the results and here they are. Results given as straight wagers instead of tiered chase wagers and N=.500 record. Also, I started tracking all qualifying plays as of 7/3, so there are some extra results that haven't been posted:

WW 4-5 W2, -0.43 units YTD
WN 1-0 W1, +1.00 units YTD
WL 9-6 W1, +3.69 units YTD
NW 0-1 L1, -0.87 units YTD
NN 0-0 YTD
NL 2-3 L1, -0.37 units YTD
LW 1-0 W1, +1.00 units YTD
LN 0-0 YTD
LL 1-2 L1, -0.60 units YTD

Home 15-15 W5, +2.25 units YTD
Away 3-2 L1, +1.17 units YTD

------------------------------------------------------

Thanks for your report. It doesn't appear to have any real strength one way or the other. Keep up the good work........

**billdo75** · 07-08-09, 09:53 AM

White Sox win 10-6.

A plays: 5-9 L1, - $13.57
B plays: 6-3 W3, + $31.20
C plays: 3-0 W3, + $52.42

Overall: 14-0, + $70.05

**billdo75** · 07-08-09, 11:01 AM

Play for 7/8/2009:

A - Houston Astros -1½ +125 (-180 ML / T-3rd, L vs L), $4.00 to win $5.00