[antifoil]

moneyball came out in 2003

[dlunc3]

It was an Achilles injury though. I think your expectations are a little too high. If he is even 75% of the player he was it will be a miracle.

all I am expecting are what doctors are reporting... obviously it wont be right away... but doctors are expecting a full recovery and he is expected to regain (eventually) his pre injury form

[antifoil]

and yeah the phillies are in a really bad spot. they have overpaid a player that will pitch between 60 and 65 innings a year, they have a bad ryan howard contract, aging pitching, and no funds to sign their best offensive player in shane victorino not to mention he plays CF or there best pitcher hamels. so yeah they are in a bad spot.

[Dutchie]

are you really implying that just in the past 2 years have team realized that "wins" or "ERA" or "RBI" are not the only aspects that define a players worth?? cmon man, these are million/billion dollar franchises... this is not the average joe public bettor..

and what do you mean by "the same situation the philles are in"? it is a bad situation to have won your divisionn 6 straight seaons and being fresh off a 102 win season? im not sure I understand.... are you basing your argument off of a team being 2 games under .500 less then two months into the season (that is still the vegas favorite to win the NL) with 2 of their best hitters yet to suit up for a game?

I think he said "several", and furthermore said "since moneyball" neither of those mean "2 years" you are grasping at straws as you drown.

the situation they are in, has nothing to do with where they were. Present and Future are all that matters. The amount of money they are paying and on the hook for to players on a steep decline is bad. So bad that they can't just go out and spend more to fix it, because they are right at the threshold of the soft salary cap.

furthermore they have one of the worst farm systems now, nothing on the horizon.

they are a 1 to 1.5 seasons away from having to blow this all up and start from scratch with a 2-5 year rebuild

no way to spin it but bleak.

speaking of the salary cap, this means it is literally impossible for them to trade for Tex BEFORE unloading Howard. without paying the 20-25% tax

[dlunc3]

moneyball came out in 2003

exactly... so since it has been almost 10 years since then, why have players like ryan hhoward and teams like philly been so successful since then (since you are iimplying that moneyball negatively aaffects teams and players such as them), if all of the advanced metrics evaluations have been around so long?

[In The Money]

According to Jayson Stark of ESPN, Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Cole Hamels isn't going anywhere.
An unidentified exec told Stark, "They'd have to be really out of it to trade anybody."
Well, at 21-23, the Phillies clearly need to make a move. Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. did allude to the fact that his team could be sellers in July if in fact the Phillies are out of contention.

[dlunc3]

I think he said "several", and furthermore said "since moneyball" neither of those mean "2 years" you are grasping at straws as you drown.

the situation they are in, has nothing to do with where they were. Present and Future are all that matters. The amount of money they are paying and on the hook for to players on a steep decline is bad. So bad that they can't just go out and spend more to fix it, because they are right at the threshold of the soft salary cap.

furthermore they have one of the worst farm systems now, nothing on the horizon.

they are a 1 to 1.5 seasons away from having to blow this all up and start from scratch with a 2-5 year rebuild

no way to spin it but bleak.

moneyball was out in 2003.. if it affects players and teams such as this so much, why havve they dominated ever since? and oof course they are on their way down... there ccomes a time when all great teamss have to take a step back and regroup. Still tough to argue that this team is still not a force though for at least yr and prob aanother yr or 2

[Dutchie]

are you seriously asking if a "book" "affects" players and teams? it ain't kryptonite.

[dlunc3]

and yeah the phillies are in a really bad spot. they have overpaid a player that will pitch between 60 and 65 innings a year, they have a bad ryan howard contract, aging pitching, and no funds to sign their best offensive player in shane victorino not to mention he plays CF or there best pitcher hamels. so yeah they are in a bad spot.

they have the money to sign hamels and still very well may.. itt is going to come down to whether they chose to spend that money n him or a strong bat.. he no dooubt could very well still be in philly after this yr

and you saying victorino is this teams best offensive plyer shows that you do not kknow verry much about this team

[antifoil]

yeah they use to have a good team. utley was good, jimmy rollins was good, victorino is good, werth had value relative to his salary. and these last few years really good pitching to make up for the offensive deficiencies.

[antifoil]

i know victorino is the best offensive player on the team.

[Dutchie]

moneyball was out in 2003.. if it affects players and teams such as this so much, why havve they dominated ever since? and oof course they are on their way down... there ccomes a time when all great teamss have to take a step back and regroup. Still tough to argue that this team is still not a force though for at least yr and prob aanother yr or 2

yep there comes a time where they have to step back and regroup!!!! I think that was what was meant by, "they are in a bad situation"

tough to argue them not being a force??????

I guess its tough. if its "tough" to point out LAST place in the division after 25% of the season

[dlunc3]

i love how people hate on a team with the exact same (actually better) roster then they had when they won 102 games just last yr...

Its so easy to talk in May while they are still undermanned... vegas still has them as an NL favorite for a reason.


No doubt this great stretch is coming to a close, just like all good teams do... but the time is not quite yet as you all think based on a tough two month stretch

[dlunc3]

yep there comes a time where they have to step back and regroup!!!! I think that was what was meant by, "they are in a bad situation"

tough to argue them not being a force??????

I guess its tough. if its "tough" to point out LAST place in the division after 25% of the season

you realize LAST place is only 2 games under .500 and only 5.5 games out of 1st place right? i guess you are smarter then vegas... what a huge mistake they are making by still having the phills as a favorite.. hopefully you make millions off your wealth of knowledge.. its not often we can outsmart vegas

[antifoil]

i don't like or dislike any team. i just evaluated what the objective data tells us. so i am in a better spot as a non homer to see the truth.

[dlunc3]

i know victorino is the best offensive player on the team.

based on what? pence has more rbi, hr, better ops, better batting avg, better on base %, ect... what exactly is victorino better at?

[dlunc3]

yeah they use to have a good team. utley was good, jimmy rollins was good, victorino is good, werth had value relative to his salary. and these last few years really good pitching to make up for the offensive deficiencies.

so what is the huge difference between this yr and just 1 yr aago? they have a better bench and added a better left fielder and have pence for a full yr... to go along with adding papelbon.. Utley and rollins will have vvery similar numbers this yr as they ddid last yr...

As Vegas points out, just bc they are 5.5 gaames out in May, means nothing... tthis roster is just as good if not better tthen llast yrs (obviously largely depending on if the doctors are correct in regards to hhoward).

[Dutchie]

not hating. But evaluating the team going forward is dismal.

No doubt they have a shot, when you have Halladay, Lee, and Hamels on your current roster you are always in it.

don't take it personal. but going forward, the Phils are not in an enviable position by any stretch of the imagination.

[dlunc3]

i don't like or dislike any team. i just evaluated what the objective data tells us. so i am in a better spot as a non homer to see the truth.

but you obvously are not looking at data if you are claiming that victorino is this teams best offenssive playeer.. and you also are not looking objectivley if you are trying to judge a team in May that has played without two of their top weapons for the entire season thusfar. 5.5 games out is nothing in this sport, and you should know that

[dlunc3]

not hating. But evaluating the team going forward is dismal.

No doubt they have a shot, when you have Halladay, Lee, and Hamels on your current roster you are always in it.

don't take it personal. but going forward, the Phils are not in an enviable position by any stretch of the imagination.

and the Patriots are also not in a greeat spot going forward.. but as of noow, even though he is getting older, they still have brady and so vegas still holds them in high regard... aand above my personal preference or any of yours, I trust vegas odds as they know much better then any of us

phills are getting older quick.. but I would not ssleep on this giant quite yet...give them another yr or two, then sure, they will most likely be dead

[antifoil]

actually you are right last year they both had a wOBA of around the same so they had about the same offensive value last year.

but as i am sure you know, you can't make any judgements about this season because it is only may and it take around 500 plate appearance to stabilize most of the things you mentioned that are of value.

but what you can judge thus far in the season is walk rate, strikeout rate, swing rate, contact rate, line drive rate, and groundball rate. we can go over all of those if you like? i don't know what the answer will be but we can find out.

[Dutchie]

Vegas doesn't predict

Vegas puts out numbers (especially for futures) that will either split the action or entice squares and fans to pour tons of small bets on their favorite team that has no shot at winning. or a historically square fav like the yanks, lakers, ect.

that is why they put a limit on how much you can put on them. They don't want the sharps hammering them on the off numbers. But they'll welcome 10,000 fanboys that wanna bet the Phil's for example for 100 bucks a piece

[antifoil]

oh yeah dutchie my favorite bryan lahair stat is his home run to flyball rate of 32 percent. that doesn't mean i haven't been riding the streak with my fantasy team though.

[Dutchie]

I love that just about everyone has a shot still at this point. We are used to "parity" like this NFL. But its a bit new in MLB. Should be some interesting pennant races, and the trading deadline might be a bit more quiet this year

[vikingfan101]

No chance this goes down. Teixeria is a decent player but not worth close to what hes paid. Pitchers like Hamels fetch alot anywhase. Really think they would have to toss in Victorino as well?

The only reasoning I could see behind this deal is that the Phillies don't think they can afford Hamels so wan't to get something in return. And even so, the Yankee's could just sign him in free agency and not give up anything.

[Doug]

I think the Yanks would love to trade Tex and get Hamels for a few months. Tex is a huge salary and he isn't hitting well. They could throw Swisher at first instead.

[HoulihansTX]

Gotta be a complete dumbfuk to believe this.

Already have one overpaid 1stbaseman, now trade for another?

[Br0nxer]

Tex is sick

guy has been sick for 2 months and they have no idea what it is

coughing and breathing issues

they would throw in A-roid too for a bag of balls

[seaborneq]

Tex is sick

guy has been sick for 2 months and they have no idea what it is

coughing and breathing issues

they would throw in A-roid too for a bag of balls

Why doesn't anyone else know that Tex sucks?

[InTheDrink]

This is the worst thread in players talk

[LUCKYCHUCK]

i dont think that will happen. cole is their best pitcher right now. they will resign him.