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***BRP's Bases 5/7... 24-17 YTD... Detailed write-ups inside***
The Hot Streak: May 7,2012
10:12 AM Daily Shootout No comments
BRP’s Picks – May 7th, 2012
YTD (24-17) +1.05 Units
8:10 P.M. – Cincinnati Reds (Bronson Arroyo) @ Milwaukee Brewers (Yovani Gallardo)
The Reds come into this game 1 game above .500 on the year, and 1 game below .500 this year. The Brewers come in struggling so far this year without Fielder, at 12-16 on the year and just playing .500 ball at home. The Reds also come in as the hotter team, winners of 5 of their last 7 games, while the Brewers have lost 7 of the last 10 games they have played.
If you’ve ever watched Bronson Arroyo pitch before, you know that he’s not overpowering, but is annoying as hell to hit against. So far this season Arroyo has been annoying batters at a good success rate, and it has led to an E.R.A. of just above 3 so far this season. He has a career E.R.A. of right around 4, and as one of those head scratching stats, Arroyo just absolutely LOVES pitching at Miller Park where he happens to be starting tonight. In his last 4 starts on the road against the Brewers, Arroyo has posted a 1.95 E.R.A. while averaging 7 innings per start.
I made a bet when this season started with my friend that Ian Kennedy would out perform Yovani Gallardo this season. It’s safe to say that I like the way that bet is going so far, and a lot of that thanks has to go to Yovani. He has gotten off this season to a 5.79 E.R.A., and just doesn’t seem to have it this season. Don’t expect that to change at all tonight, as again, here is another one of those head scratching stats. Gallardo has an E.R.A. of 6.51, and a WHIP of nearly 2 against the Reds in 9 career starts against the team he is facing tonight.
Reds come with Arroyo to Miller Park, the wrong team is favored here!!!
Reds at +130 (2 units to win 2.6)
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8:10 P.M. – Los Angeles Angels (Jered Weaver) @ Minnesota Twins (Francisco Liriano)
An over in an Angels / Twins game, I know, off the top it doesn’t sound the most appealing. I’m not gonna go into these 2 teams atrocious hitting stats so far this season. What I will say is that Pujols first HR yesterday should wake him, and in turn, the Angels bats up for the near future.
Jered Weaver is a dominant pitcher, one of the best in baseball, and I’m not going to go into his overall stats, because they are that good. Jered Weaver has pitched 20+ innings against 17 different teams over the last 3 years. Although it makes no sense, the team he has the highest E.R.A. over that span against is the Twins, who which he sports a 4.81 E.R.A. over 6 starts. He also hates pitching in the Metrodome, posting a 5.68 E.R.A. in the building he’s pitching in tonight.
Francisco Liriano is a human gas can right now. If the Angels bats are struggling, they shouldn’t be tonight. Liriano posts a very impressive E.R.A. just .03 points shy of 10 on the season over his first 5 starts this year. For all the struggles the Angels bats have had this year, Liriano has also managed to serve up 10 runs to them in just 10.1 innings, as he has already faced them twice this year. What may be more impressive is the fact that his E.R.A. of nearly 9 this year against the Angels is actually a bit of an improvement over his last 3 seasons against the Halos. Liriano sports an 11.32 E.R.A. against the Angels over the last 3 years.
Liriano should give up at least 5 by himself here, Halos could cover this number themselves!!!
1st 5 Total Ov. 4 +110 (2 to win 2.2)
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9:40 P.M. – St. Louis Cardinals (Lance Lynn) @ Arizona Diamondbacks (Joe Saunders)
The Cardinals have been hitting very well as of late, on the other hand I think the D’Backs are still struggling due to missing Chris Young. I’m not going under here because of the lineups though, I’m going under because pitching trumps hitting, and the pitching matchup is too good here for this high a number.
Lance Lynn has taken over the rotation spot for Chris Carpenter, and apparently taking over Chris Carpenter’s rotation spot turns you into Chris Carpenter. The impressive thing is though, that might be an insult to a pitcher who has posted a 1.60 E.R.A. in his first 5 starts after being given a chance to start. The Cards are going to have a decision to make when Carpenter comes back, if Lynn hasn’t already made that decision tough enough, watch him make it for them tonight!
Joe Saunders has also been one of the bigger surprises to start this season. Saunders is also another prime example of how changing from the AL to the NL pretty much instantly drops your E.R.A. at least half a point. Saunders career E.R.A. is over 4, but since joining the D’Backs it has been below 3.5. So far this season Saunders has been terrific, posting a 1.24 E.R.A. over his first 5 starts. As a little boost, Saunders has faced the Cards once in his career, in that start he gave up 0 runs.
Two pitchers in the zone right now, this number is too high!!!
1st 5 Total Un. 4 ½ +110 (2 units to win 2.2)
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10:05 P.M. – Colorado Rockies (Drew Pomeranz) @ San Diego Padres (Edison Volquez)
Padres at -110 (1.1 units to win 1)
***I’m not going to do write-ups on 1 unit plays, but I feel there is definitely value in them, and I’m tired of not posting them as they have been consistently hitting at a high rate as of late, consider them free plays***
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Originally Posted by Smutbucket
