[metsy]

I am following the plays here by Biff, LTA, ON3, and others, following the units recommended. Just seems that everything I am following, overall has brought my balances down big time especially in the past week. That Phillies under 6 last night was not even close. What's the deal here? Are these legit recommendations? I question it because a friend of mine brought up an interestng point on how maybe they are 'opposite' plays posted by the books. I don't believe that to be the case. Anyone else here follow? I am relatively new to following plays, so don't know if dry runs like this are common. Thanks.

[Nyjrkm06]

Lol do your own plays if your going to bitch, you're following at will.

[MrShrink]

... 'opposite' plays posted by the books. I don't believe that to be the case.

First of all, these are attention-seeking degenerates and wannabes... not pros... Second of all, see bold.

[cmaulsby]

Track the cappers and the bloggers here before putting any money down. (Personally, I tail AllDay8 and EaglesPhan36 in the baseball section.) If you set a reasonable goal as far as rate of return you'll be fine. As an example, I am gunning for 1% gain of my bankroll. satring with $1000 my unit wager is 1% or $10. My goal is to make 1%......EACH DAY. At the end of the week I want to have made $70 - not much but that equals a rate of return of 3200% annually. Next monday, my roll is 1070 and unit wager is $10.70. I adjust every week and am more than happy to make 1%.

[MrShrink]

talking about the whole place btw before anyone gets their panties in a tight lil bunch.

[metsy]

You're too funny NYjrkm06. I wasn't bitching. Sorry if you took it like that. If you read the post you'll see my friend brought up a point and since I am new to all this, I was also questioning the dry spells. I know no one is forcing me to do anything, and I take full responsibility for my decisions in my life. I respect and appreciate LTA, BIFF, ON3, and the others for taking time out of their day to make posts and crunch the numbers. That is really nice of them. Was just looking to see if dry runs like this are common and what others thought about the possibility of books posting 'opposite' plays here. Thank you for playing though.

Lol do your own plays if your going to bitch, you're following at will.

[Nyjrkm06]

You're too funny NYjrkm06. I wasn't bitching. Sorry if you took it like that. If you read the post you'll see my friend brought up a point and since I am new to all this, I was also questioning the dry spells. I know no one is forcing me to do anything, and I take full responsibility for my decisions in my life. I respect and appreciate LTA, BIFF, ON3, and the others for taking time out of their day to make posts and crunch the numbers. That is really nice of them. Was just looking to see if dry runs like this are common and what others thought about the possibility of books posting 'opposite' plays here. Thank you for playing though.

Look at their records through those longs threads and you will see they are for real. It's not hard pal.

[Nova99]

Lost most my profits last two weeks as well. If u look at last night phi game was3-1 in the 9th until a new call up came in and fked up the under so i wouldnt say it wasnt close.

Posters cant win all the time esp if they wager daily, very hard to be consistent.

I think mlb betting u have to take in consideration good teams lose 30-40% of games, so ppl lose on the juiced favs. A lot of ppl also chase so a funky streak like sea winning 5 on the road or bos losing 5 at home will win the books a lot if money. I highly doubt books care to trick bettors on forums, if the dont profit the sport wouldnt be offered.

[CHAZ]

Dry spells are very common, especially in a long season like baseball. That's the whole reason why you bet a small percentage of your bank roll too, so that you aren't buried during the hard times. Maybe also try to follow just one or the other so that it cuts down on the number of your plays a day.

[CHAZ]

I don't understand your "opposite plays". What are you trying to say there?




"Trap" lines don't exist. However, every price tells a story and if a game looks too good to be true there's a reason for it"

[spladle08]

How can there be any hint of "opposite" plays.....

Most of the posters listed track their plays religiously, and show a positive record, if you follow exactly you will come out just as they do.

Hell Biff is up like 50+ units, if you were to follow his picks you too would be up the exact same.

Personally, I tail tail tail, and then degen off some at the end, which I'm sure contributes to your results (using your "gut" at times)

Lastly, take something you know is 50/50 like a coin toss, flip a quarter, 25x, 50x, 100x, whatever you want, and even though you know the long term odds of heads/tails are 50/50 record your results and look at the streaks of 5 tails, 9 heads, etc etc.... and think about them as wins and losses. You simply cant win everyday, and with everyone striving to have a 60+ win percentage, you have to realize that nearly half the time you are still taking "L's" ..... a couple weeks is a small sample size, grind out the year and keep tailing consistent winning players and you will come out ahead, you may not be rich, but you should be ++++++$$$$$

[ArMaNiBoYnYc]

Agree with everyone above. You follow at your own risk bro. Secondly stop following a whole bunch of people, with a million teams a day. A smart bettir picks out one or two games they are sure about and punds them. Is it always gonna be cash.. Noo.. Thats why its betting

[spladle08]

I don't understand your "opposite plays". What are you trying to say there?




"Trap" lines don't exist. However, every price tells a story and if a game looks too good to be true there's a reason for it"

Lol he is basically saying gambling sites hire people to post the losing play so we will all tail and lose, as if the outcome is pre-determined, and the books/athletes all know, but randomly enough with all the athletes and personnel this would take, nobody has ever come out from behind the curtain and reveled this evil truth........

• get outta here with this nonsense

[metsy]

Meaning books are posting plays here they think will win them money under the guise of a regular poster. That's what my friend meant by opposite plays.

I don't understand your "opposite plays". What are you trying to say there?




"Trap" lines don't exist. However, every price tells a story and if a game looks too good to be true there's a reason for it"

[metsy]

LOL, too funny. Close, but not exactly. If that's the case then the same can be said for the "legit" people that make picks here. "People post the 'winning' play so we will all tail and win, as if the outcome is pre-determined, and the books/athletes all know, but randomly enough with all the athletes and personnel this would take......."

What my friend was simply saying was that books could simply create a few fake screen names and post what they thought would make them money, just as what legit posters post here that they think would make us money. That's all, nothing else.

Lol he is basically saying gambling sites hire people to post the losing play so we will all tail and lose, as if the outcome is pre-determined, and the books/athletes all know, but randomly enough with all the athletes and personnel this would take, nobody has ever come out from behind the curtain and reveled this evil truth........

• get outta here with this nonsense

[ArMaNiBoYnYc]

Bro if your tired of losing get on texas tonight. Put that on your pipe and smoke it

[spladle08]

LOL, too funny. Close, but not exactly. If that's the case then the same can be said for the "legit" people that make picks here. "People post the 'winning' play so we will all tail and win, as if the outcome is pre-determined, and the books/athletes all know, but randomly enough with all the athletes and personnel this would take......."

What my friend was simply saying was that books could simply create a few fake screen names and post what they thought would make them money, just as what legit posters post here that they think would make us money. That's all, nothing else.

As I said before, the posters you listed are winners. Its not rocket science, finding posters with threads 20+ pages long and results that are positive. If you are tailing people who are posting "LOCK OF THE CENTURY BET YOUR MOTHERS HOUSE" then yes, you will lose both short and long term. But Im just telling you, the people who are long term winners put the time in and decide the best chance for winning and post it. Tons of us tail them so its difficult for them to lie about their records, for this gambling-site based scandal you are referring to the poster would have to only have a few posts and therefore wouldn't get much respect anyways.... its just a ridiculous idea... but if the "LOCK OF THE CENTURY" threads are what is swaying you, than maybe you are onto something....

[EASY_MONEY72]

Lol he is basically saying gambling sites hire people to post the losing play so we will all tail and lose, as if the outcome is pre-determined, and the books/athletes all know, but randomly enough with all the athletes and personnel this would take, nobody has ever come out from behind the curtain and reveled this evil truth........

• get outta here with this nonsense

ARE YOU SERIOUS? i CAN NAME YOU NUMEROUS INSTANCES OF GAMES BEING FIXED JUST IN THE PAST 5 YEARS - AND IT HAS BEEN DOCUMENTED.

[MatI]

...stop following a whole bunch of people, with a million teams a day. A smart bettir picks out one or two games they are sure about and punds them. Is it always gonna be cash.. Noo.. Thats why its betting

This.

[spladle08]

ARE YOU SERIOUS? i CAN NAME YOU NUMEROUS INSTANCES OF GAMES BEING FIXED JUST IN THE PAST 5 YEARS - AND IT HAS BEEN DOCUMENTED.

numerous instances, vs everyday occurrence, = big difference...

Does it happen where a player gets some benefit by purposely failing/missing/taking a dive? YES

Is most every outcome pre-determined before the game (especially in team sports) starts? NO

Do vegas books probably have models saying 70% chance this is the outcome lets hope the money goes the other way? Surely

Is it possible they have posters posting the plays opposite the 70% outcome? YES

Would you tail somebody who posted 70% losing plays?.....

[MatI]

ARE YOU SERIOUS? i CAN NAME YOU NUMEROUS INSTANCES OF GAMES BEING FIXED JUST IN THE PAST 5 YEARS - AND IT HAS BEEN DOCUMENTED.

let's see this list buddy.

[CHAZ]

Its ridiculous to think the books really give two shits about a couple of posters on SBR. Honestly, how many posters do you believe actually bet real money to even make a dent in the market?

[EASY_MONEY72]

let's see this list buddy.

NO PROBLEM


1)TIM DONNAGHY 2007
2)STEFFEN KARL - SOCCER (THIS WAS A NICE ONE WITH REFS, AND ABOUT 30 PLAYERS INVOLVED)
3)AUBURN (KID WITH THE LAST NAME OF WARD JUST THIS SEASON
4) tOLEDO - KID NAMED MCDOUGAL - THIS WAS BIG TIME AS WELL AND CROSSED OVER FROM FOOTBALL / BASKETBALL
5) HAWAII - NOT ENOUGH EVIDENCE SO IT WAS NEVER FOLLOWED UP ON
6) SAN DIEGO BASKETBALL LAST YEAR

THESE ARE JUST THE ONES THAT PEOPLE HAVE FOUND OUT ABOUT.

All this said - i dont think every game is fixed, but it happens a lot more than just the 6 i have listed here - guarantee you that....

[Smutbucket]

the only way you can discern what information is good to tail/fade is doiing the real work yourself. so stop complaining and do something

[MatI]

So Tim Donaghy and a bunch of college games. Pretty much what I expected.

The more you pay players, the less likely this is to happen, so college sports are a good opportunity to fix.

Each NBA team usually plays approx 80 games a season, MLB plays 162. And apart from Donaghy, none of these two sports are implicated in any major way. And to be honest, I couldnt give a shit about a few fixes as you are just as likely to end up on the right side as the fix as the wrong side.

There are about about 400 fixed soccer matches every year world wide. not so bad when there are literally thousands of games played every year and dozens on any given day. Again, who gives a shit, most of these occur in kazakhstan, uzbekistan and any other 'stan you can think of, with others in places like greece, turkey, italy. And like i said, chances of it actually effecting you in any serious way are pretty low.

I am in no way saying match fixing doesn't occur, but to say it is some kind of common daily occurance which adversely effects a sports better is just stupid.

[metsy]

Nobody was complaining. Just inquiring and asking questions.

the only way you can discern what information is good to tail/fade is doiing the real work yourself. so stop complaining and do something

[EASY_MONEY72]

So Tim Donaghy and a bunch of college games. Pretty much what I expected.

The more you pay players, the less likely this is to happen, so college sports are a good opportunity to fix.

Each NBA team usually plays approx 80 games a season, MLB plays 162. And apart from Donaghy, none of these two sports are implicated in any major way. And to be honest, I couldnt give a shit about a few fixes as you are just as likely to end up on the right side as the fix as the wrong side.

There are about about 400 fixed soccer matches every year world wide. not so bad when there are literally thousands of games played every year and dozens on any given day. Again, who gives a shit, most of these occur in kazakhstan, uzbekistan and any other 'stan you can think of, with others in places like greece, turkey, italy. And like i said, chances of it actually effecting you in any serious way are pretty low.

I am in no way saying match fixing doesn't occur, but to say it is some kind of common daily occurance which adversely effects a sports better is just stupid.

lol - you asked me to list them and I did. And again - if you think these are the only games fixed, you aren't too bright.

I am sure every player and ref has been caught fixing.

and if you think the more the players get paid - the less it happens - you aren't too bright either. The refs do more of the controlling than the players.

lastly - if you were a person fixing a game, 95% of the people doing so would lie about it or at the very least say nothing - because they wouldnt want to be known by their friends and family as the scum of the earth that they are. THAT is why we dont know about it more often and people dont "come out" to speak out against it.

All that said - you still have the same chance to be on the right side of the fix - so who cares?

[EASY_MONEY72]

Oh - and one other thing - you need to read up on some of the comments Donaghy made during his questioning if you think he is the only person in the NBA controlling games.

[MatI]

Oh - and one other thing - you need to read up on some of the comments Donaghy made during his questioning if you think he is the only person in the NBA controlling games.

I have read his comments. in fact, i have read the book. And I think I don't think his word is worth shit.

Do you expect him to say that he is the only one who was involved? Not that I believe he is. But to think it is a daily occurrence is ridiculous.

[spladle08]

Agree with most of what yall are saying, and the "dont want to look like a scum-bag who fixes games" angle works, but that's assuming everyone who is approached goes along with it, I am not naive enough to think "Fixing" doesn't go on from time to time, but you would think at least 1 in the thousands of athletes/refs approached, would speak out on the subject... the more I type I would assume its an athlete or ref that would come up with the plan. Not that they need the money butttt.. can you imagine, perhaps a Kevin Durant total points line set at 21... it get hammered on the over, he has someone place a huge bet on the under (assuming some book would take big props action) and boom, he scores under and ultimately dooms his team.... win win win... regardless.. KD wouldnt do that, loves the game to much, and this is obv a drastic example, bribing a field goal kicker or something would be much easier.... blah blah blah

OK Im done with this thread, final stance = tail people with proven results and check their plays/reasons for each play and see if you agree... if the info doesnt add up, find some plays you do like and see if you get support or opposition on the boards... new info is always popping up.... some games COULD be fixed, but not all are, and as has been said, maybe you will be on the right side of the fix... if you aren't risking your whole roll every play it wont matter. Just bet within your BankRoll and enjoy the ride.

[EASY_MONEY72]

I have read his comments. in fact, i have read the book. And I think I don't think his word is worth shit.

Do you expect him to say that he is the only one who was involved? Not that I believe he is. But to think it is a daily occurrence is ridiculous.

like I said - I dont think every game is fixed. This conversation started based on someone thinking that someone might come on this forum and "intentionally" lead the wolves to slaughter.

The fact that people come here looking for good picks, and this site is run / paid for by sportsbooks, leads one to believe that this isn't a crazy line of thinking.

all that said - again - I dont give a crap. I have just as much chance of being on the right side of the play as the wrong side as long as i am not letting people influence me. '

this guy shouldnt be letting some random people on the site influence his decisions unless he is paying for a service. that's my point out of all of this. And if you are paying for a losing service, then you need to get your head examined

[balls2wall]

I don't tail, but have a few times in the past when I was a noob. The best thing to do is to make your own plays and use the guys you like to confirm your play or make you think twice about it.

However, if you do tail it is probably key to make sure you find who you want to tail and play every play for the same number of units they are playing them at (not the same amount of $$).

If you jump in after someone is up 60 units they may be ready to go on a slide. If you tail them for a few days and they lose then you back off and they start winning again then you jump back on that is probably going to be a recipe for disaster.

I don't see how someone can be up 50 units, but you are tailing him and losing money if you are following all of his plays exactly as posted.

I would personally narrow your list down and find the one guy (or 2) who fits your style and just tail him.


good luck

[MrShrink]

First of all, these are attention-seeking degenerates and wannabes... not pros... Second of all, see bold.

Wherein do you find the implication that these people are shills for the industry? I was obviously saying that if tailing the plays was losing him $$$ than fading them would be profitable. Goooood lord...