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Haven't seen much bad advice in this thread. Only dumb posts are his.Originally Posted by Br0nxer
I have said that I hate baseball moneylines. Too many games decided by one pitch for my tastes. I stick to over unders but there is certainly a way to beat baseball other ways, it's just not for me.
Do you honestly think that you will get anywhere with this stupid "keep it real" attitude on a freaking internet message board? Are you serious? You don't impress anyone with your internet tough guy attitude
MonkeyF0cker been on a horrendous losing streak... taking his frustrations out on us
Poor bastard. I can't lose unders lately, I'll send him some mojo so he doesn't kill himself.
nah. let the prikk hang himself. poor bastard will be barreled in probably for the rest of his life
put the fukkin square out of his misery
heard he only bets 90% or higher public sides
yeah it is always funny when monkey steps out of being a dick in the think tank to screwing with the player talk people
Put up $50k+ and we'll talk.dumbfukk hamburger thinks he has a fukkin clue
ill out cap you any fukkin day of the week in bases kid
LOL. Nope.
Just bored.
No games. Too early to go out.
LOL. What? Is that what you think makes people sharp? Betting non-public sides?
LMAO.
Nevermind. I already know you could never afford a challenge against me.
bronxer is as legit as they come, square
now go answer the question in your naacp thread geek
Man, it's getting brutal in here. Cat fights in the square parade.
I better run before I get clawed by a pussy.
if you are bored, i have a question.
when you model do you account for thing like lincecum and halladay velocity being down and the impact that has on their future performance? the fact that before the season lincecum said he didn't want to throw his slider anymore because it hurt his arm? and stuff like that article i linked in the think tank about pujol's swing rate?
you dont have to tell me how to account for it. i just want to know if you keep up with the stats to that level of detail.
I'm pretty sure Monkey accounts for every pitch and its location, velocity and movement. By the way, how are you MF?
I'm great, smitch. How've you been, buddy?
Been a while.
Certainly.
i don't believe that because at some point keep track to that degree would be diminishing returns
Doing well. Ya it has been awhile, probably due to SBR chat's downfall.
Pitch F/x.
yeah i know. i just meant at some point the edge you gain to the amount of work isn't worth the value.
Definitely. Probably gonna be a rough year for your G-men...
Couldn't agree with you more.
Depends on the data. Some of it is noise. Some of it isn't.
There isn't much additional work once you have something coded up.
They certainly don't score enough runs to catch the ball they way they have so far this season. The way Cain and Bumgarner are pitching I would be happy if Lincecum were just decent, but man he's been awful. You're right, though, it doesn't look good.
I started a thread across the street about him the first week of the season. Got some good prices against him, but I really didn't anticipate him getting shelled as much as he did. All of that value is sunken now. Will probably get some good prices backing him in the near future.
His velocity might come back a little, but I don't think he'll ever be close to where he was several years ago.
Sad really.
Have to dig deep: lineups, starting pitchers, bullpen shape, etc. How overvalued is the SP based on name alone? Bullpens -- especially middle relief -- are a great place to exploit weaknesses in lines as well. How overworked are these cats from previous games in the series?
Work angles where you find value -- won't win every bet, but long-term, you can make money. It's a grinder's sport, that's for sure.
They really needed to keep a guy like Beltran...
Tough to rely on Sandoval and Posey for all of your offense.
Losing Brian Wilson and now Sandoval really hurts them.
On the upside, Cain is looking like he should. I've always thought he would be a stud.
Is it really his velocity though? His command is what bothers me. I've seen him dominate at 89-91 when he has good command and late moving life on his fastball. This season he has had trouble throwing strikes along with bad mistakes in the strike zone. Also teams and batters that see him a lot having been spitting on his change up. He's either tipping it or his lack of command has made it less effective.
They really miss Freddy Sanchez, too bad the guy is made of glass. He really changes the lineup and plays a solid 2nd base.
Yeah. True. Forgot about him.
It's a bit of both. He's getting behind in counts and he just doesn't have anything that he can put past most hitters anymore. His offspeeds aren't hitting the zone and he resorts to lobbing a juicy fastball or change middle plate.
Ya the Giants have a tough decision to make on him contract-wise, will be interesting. I'm sure there will be a team willing to pay him big bucks over a long term, not sure the Giants want to do that anymore.
He might be better suited for a closing role or something of that nature in the longer run - especially with his delivery. He'd have to get more comfortable out of the stretch, but it might be something that they could look at down the line if he continues to struggle.
If he struggles in his next few starts, I wouldn't be surprised to see him land on the DL for a while.
The only problem with that is that he doesn't have blow-past velocity like most closers...
If I were the GM, I would have tried to trade him before this season started. Not really sure what they can do with him now.
If you think you would have gotten decent value for Lincecum, you're crazy. Other GMs know when someone moves a guy suspiciously.
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