[jellobiafra]

I'm starting my own thread (seems to be the thing to do) for this baseball season. I have been swinging wildly at everything thrown at me so far this year, and I'm collecting a lot more strikes than hits. So I've come to the conclusion I'm just not disciplined enough. No shocker if you knew me, but I digress.

I like to think I actually know the game of baseball and how to spot winners. My problem is that I also I think I see winning bets in every game. It's just not possible to be successful with that type of strategy. So I'm going to put some limits on myself. I'm going to restrict myself to 4 bets a day - One Parlay, One Straight, and One Total. The 4th bet is going to be the Run Line Chase system bet some of you may have taken notice of in another thread.

(Note: I will posting that pick here as well on a daily basis so it may be easier to check here than to sift through over there. If anyone is interested the thread is called "System Integrity". I am cautioning people to be very careful with those wagers as we really don't know what we have on our hands as of yet.)

My parlay will be a 2 teamer and will include two pretty heavy favorites for the most part - two of the most solid potential winners on the day as I see them.

My straight pick will be any team with -120 odds or better. I fall into the trap - like many gamblers I suspect - of reflexively siding too often with the favorite. I become victim to a myopia that blinds me from seeing obvious value in very slight favorites and underdogs. I'm hoping to use this as an outlet to open my perspective a little bit in that regard.

My total pick will be just that - one over/under selection a day. I usually have decent success picking totals in multiple sports. I'm hoping that limiting my choices to just one a day in baseball will sharpen this skill for me.

I really don't advise anyone to "tail" me, not that any of you would. I've never kept a running tab of how my picks perform so this thread is as much about that for me as anything. Anyone is welcome here. I'm always looking for an angle and hungry for advice, so feel free to post at will.

Should be a fun season. I hope it's a profitable one for all of us. I'll be back here later with my inaugural picks of the season. Day 1 - Monday April 4/13. Until then, best of luck.....

[pimike]

Welcome and Good luck on your first thread here

[jellobiafra]

OK, here are my selections for Monday April 13th:



The Parlay:

MIL-140/KC-125


CIN at MIL -
Yavoni Gallardo takes the ball for Milwaukee. Gallardo is a young power right-hander with electric stuff that will be a top of the rotation starter for years to come. He has had great success (cue Borat....niiiiice) against the Reds in limited opportunities. Yavoni has 2 starts vs. CIN with 13.2 IP, 10 H, and only 2 ER allowed. His opponent on the hill is Edinson Volquez - a strong young ace in the making himself. However, I don't think Volquez is quite right yet this season. He struggled mightily against the Mets and has been shelled by the Brewers in 2 of his 3 outings. Volquez's career numbers vs MIL include 17.2 IP, 20 H, and 10 ER allowed. I think he'll perform better than those numbers or than he did in his 1st start, but I don't see him beating Gallardo and the Brewers in this one.

CLE at KC
KC is a good baseball team. Let me say that again for those of you who aren't paying attention. KC is a good baseball team. The Indians are a bad baseball team. Adding to these basic tenets, Zach Grienke is a very good young pitcher. Fausto Carmona is a very bad young pitcher. Noticing a theme here? Greinke in his last 8 starts has given up the following ER in each game: 0, 0, 0, 3, 2, 0, 1, 0. What's not to like about that? Carmona's ER allowed in his last 7: 6, 4, 4, 7, 7, 3, 4. Any questions?



The Straight:


ARZ -105


STL at ARZ
Ok, not the sexiest game on the board I'll admit. But I think Arizona is in a nice spot here and getting basically even odds at home. They will be looking to bounce back after losing the last 2 to LAD. The Dodgers absolutely shut down Arizona's bats with back to back impressive performances by two lefties. Eric Stults and Randy Wolf completely befuddled them for most of 2 ballgames. They will be happy to see a right-handed starter take the hill against them - and a completely average one at that in Todd Wellemeyer. Wellemeyer was roughed up by the Pirates in his first appearance, and is nothing but a serviceable journeyman. The Cards are 1-4 in his last 5 starts. Doug Davis toes the rubber for ARZ. Davis is no ace, but he's a grisly veteran with a lot of experience vs. the Cards from his days in MIL. Davis consistently gives up 3 or 4 runs, gets you through 6 innings, and gives you a chance to win. ARZ is 19-9 in his last 28 home starts. STL is 1-8 in their last 9 in ARZ. I think ARZ is a solid play to get back on the winning track here.


The Total:

NYY/TAM under 9

We've got Wang vs Kazmir in the home opener for the AL Champs. That still feels weird to say. Kazmir, since getting beaten up the 1st few starts of his career vs. the Pin Stripes, has absolutely dominated the Yankees. In his last 6 starts against NYY Kazmir has 35 IP, 21 H, 4 ER, and 41 K's! Since his 2nd start of '07 he has owned the Yankees. Wang has been excellent vs. Tampa in his career thus far. In his last 9 starts since 2006 vs TAM, Wang 62.2 IP, 51 H, and only 14 ER allowed. He's also shown great control, walking only 15 in those 62 innings. Low pitch totals, pitches to contact, throws ground balls, etc. Everything you need to help a game go under. The under is 6-1-2 in Wang's last 9 vs. the Rays. The under is 16-5-1 in the Yankees last 22 vs. a LH starter.



The Run Line Chase:


Monday's Play: METS +100 (Run Line)

Current System Record: 4-0 (4-3 overall plays)

[netinfo]

I hope you do well.

Take care,

netinfo

[monkey107]

Good luck!

Is the Mets play for Monday?

[jellobiafra]

Good luck!

Is the Mets play for Monday?

Yeah. I just edited it to "Monday's Play" instead of "Today's Play". I thought that might cause some confusion since I'm going to be making the picks in this thread the night before the games.

[mcbaseball10]

Jello, Gallardo is Right handed. Only matters because Reds power hitters are Lefties. They fare much better against righties. Think this will be a pitchers dual. On the other side of this one, but best of luck regardless.

[The General]

Best of luck to you

[jellobiafra]

Shit. I'm off to a rough start. I actually watched the game the other night against the Giants, well along with about 10 other games. Why did I think he was left-handed? Saw him jack one out against RJ, too.

Oh well, I'm still sticking with the pick. He's dominated CIN and Volquez has struggled against MIL. Thanks for the correction. All the more reason not to tail me folks! :P

[jellobiafra]

Best of luck to you

Thank you sir. If my history with wagering is any indication, I will certainly need it.