Major League Baseball: System Play Based on a Scientific Approach
One of the reasons baseball is so profitable to an experienced sports handicapper, is that it’s filled with numerous statistics not found in any other sport. No other sport breaks it down with such detail indicating which teams struggle with offensive and defensive inconsistencies and provides a clearer view of starting pitcher and bullpen slumps and flaws. Our analysis also pinpoints when a team is starting to produce at a higher rate. The system we introduce here represents a scientific approach to handicapping. Our selection techniques were developed so the handicapper can take advantage of formulas created which analyzes the quality of starting pitchers along with its bullpen. It became evident which teams get the best of a certain starting pitchers and bullpens they face. Our formulas also place a great deal of weight on the bullpen, by creating a bullpen rating. Of course to produce an accurate rating is a very difficult since relief pitchers are shuttled in and out of the bullpen very frequently. Relief pitchers as we know are also traded, released or shipped to minors. We also analyze team batting tendencies when facing dominant left or right, handed hurlers and vice versa, when pitchers may struggle against teams with predominantly left or right handed batters. Our baseball system handles a large number of team and pitching offensive/defensive events, interacting factors and creates a team, scoring index, along with a Money Line.
When handicapping baseball you are always looking for value - is the price on today's game worthy of a selection. Quite often the inexperienced handicapper does not recognize value and always seems to jump on the wrong side. It is the oddsmaker's job to confuse the general public into thinking he is getting a good team at a cheap price, when in fact the public has been duped into playing a team where the ML is way out of line. Obviously there are situations and circumstances surrounding such teams and players that are not readily made available to the general public and that is why at times lines look so enticing. It is therefore important to compare our projected ML to the oddsmaker's posted lines before making any plays.
· When comparing our projected money lines to the oddsmaker's posted lines there needs to be at least a 25-cent Differential or Overlay.
· Make sure a pitcher has pitched at least 20 innings.
· Never bet on a team favorite in which you must lay over -175.
· Never bet on teams that are on a 2 game or more losing streak.
· Never bet against a team on a 2 game winning streak or more.
· Try to stay away from teams traveling long distances in their first game.
A money line of (-1.25) indicates the Home team is a favorite, while a (1.25) indicates the Road team is a favorite. As an example, suppose WAS at home is facing the NYM's and the Predicted ML is 2.25. This indicates the NYM's are an overwhelming favorite at 2.25. Now suppose the Actual or Offshore casino's ML for the NYM's is 1.50. This tells us that the NYM's are a Road favorite having good value since we only have to lay 1.50. To see if there is a play we need to subtract the actual ML of 1.50 from the predicted ML 2.25 which gives us a differential of 75 cents which greater then the 25 cent overlay required. Therefore, the NYM's becomes our play. Of course the opposite scenario applies.