[gregm]

Pretty average looking card, getting some very good pitchers at a decent price. Haren is really struggling here to start the season but the Angels have been really hitting the ball well and finally getting some runs in. I think that line is a little low because of Harens troubles but the Yanks hit Chen pretty well and the Orioles are returning to their usual poor form pretty quickly here.

Rays -1 -129 risk 1.29

Liriano is off to a disastrous start, posting an ERA around 12 and WHIP numbers at 2.74, he ended up last year with an ERA around 5. He had a great season in 2006 going 12-3 with an ERA around 2.16 but missed the next season and going for Tommy John surgery and has really been erratic ever since. He had a good 2010 but that has really been about it and he is off to a horrible start to the year getting shelled by the Yanks, Orioles and Angels for 17 runs in 11 innings of pitching.

Niemann is off to a rough start but he is at home and has great career numbers against the Twins and is too good of a pitcher not to start winning games. I am going to really be looking for spots to wager on the Rays, with Upton back in the lineup and weaker Sox and Yankees this year, I think this team is really going to contend for the Al East title.

Dodgers -1 -106 risk 1.06

I know Wandys numbers at home are much better but getting Billingsley who has started the year 2-0 with an ERA at 1.33 and one of the hottest teams in baseball at a great number is always going to be a play for me. Especially against the Astros who are 2-9 in their last 11 and Billingsley traditionally has great numbers at Minute Maid. The Dodgers are just playing all around great ball and Kemp is just killing it out there.

I am going to continue with the Dodgers until I see some signs of them slowing down, especially in a spot like this with Billingsley on the mound.

Cardinals -1 -106 risk 1.06

Cardinals/Pirates u4 (1st 5) -135 risk 2.70

Tough call on this one ,Lohse off to a great start at 2-0 and ERA less than 1 but Bedard is such a tough hurler to face , he hasnt got a win yet but the Pirates arent exactly helping him out with run support. Bedards ERA is 2.65 so far this year and the Cardinals have suddenly had some struggles with their offense and the Pirates always struggle with the bats and getting runs. That under in the first 5 looks like a solid wager here.

Brewers -1 -109 risk 2.18

It was good to see Braun and the Brewers hitting the ball last night. This is much a play against Guthrie on the mound for the Rockies as it is a play on Gallardo and the Brewers. If the Brewers bats and Braun are waking up, they should get some opportunities against Guthrie who has never pitched in Miller Park and has struggled this year. He has an ERA around 8 to start the year and has been shelled in his last two outings against the Giants and the Padres , Gallardo has had a pretty average opener to start the year but he looked solid in his last two outings.

Rangers -1 -108 risk 1.08

Angels -1 -118 risk 2.36

Yankees -1 -109 risk 1.09

[onacloud]

Still steady killing can't believe this thread doesn't get more attention each day

Thanks for the write ups always a good read I loved the tennis ones and these are on point too

[gregm]

Thanks onacloud. Tennis is just taking a back seat right now, baseball takes so much time. I have never had the kind of numbers on my sheets through the years in tennis on clay to justify the time I spend on it. I still watch alot of tennis though, Nadal just dominated. Kind of depressing though, I was hoping someone else would challenge for the French.

Whits Sox/Mariners O7 -120 risk 1.2

I know betting overs on Seattle is always painful with the mariner offensive prowess but I did the numbers today on these totals and I think this one is way too low. Only 3 games out of 10 since 2010 between these two havent at least reached 7 runs. Millwood is 1-5 against the Sox with only a 3.14 era though he has started the year with a 6.30 ERA and the 36 year old pitcher is really starting to slow down, he had a decent year last year but only threw 9 games for Colorado but his last really good year was with Texas in 2009. His short stint with Baltimore was a disaster in 2010 and has really been giving up the the runs with an Era hovering around 4 and 5 since 2007, huge drop off in numbers as he has got older.

Danks has struggled this year so far but the Mariners are always hit and miss with any help in the totals department, their games have gone over 7 in seven of their games and under 7 in six of their games so far this year. 5 over-6 under for white sox with a total of 7. Worth a punt here with Millwood and Danks struggling so far this year.

[onacloud]

Cards under 4 1st 5 will be close

[gregm]

Yeah, its going to be close. Surprised to see Bedard struggling but you can always count on the Pirates offense to be putrid. He might still end up the day with an ERA of around 3 barring a big inning and still end up 0-4 with that pirates offense and their run support.