Didn't say it won't work. I just said it is a coin toss, the data is here to prove it. GL with it. I doubt anyone will track the outcome of this since lines will be different all over the place. Let us know at the end. BOL.
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05-03-09 01:38 AM #36
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05-03-09 11:34 AM #37
First off, much thanks Cheme for researching the historical info. on the system! A system has to have data to be what it is. Went 10-5 on Sat. for + 4 units. 19-11 the first 2 days at 63.3% rate! History says this won't continue or will it?
2004 109600-124080= -14480 51.5%
2005 110800-119880= -9080 52.6%
2006 115200-114900= +300 54.6%
2007 116100-111480= +4620 55.5%
2008 110000-113160= -3160 53.8%
Probably most people have done these calculations but at -120 this is the results. By the way today comes in at a -121.4 average. No run comes in at -104.5.
We all know at even money this would be sweet (maybe that was the case in 2004 and 2005) but at the present rate it probably could be considered a flip of the coin IMO.
CK there is no hate here, just explaining it as I have figured it out. With all due respect you are in the majors and I'm in the rookie league in FLA with regards to wagering. Only thing is now you say you won't play anything over -125 and at -140 will go the other way! Thought every game had to be played? If this is a tweak in the system that is cool, (wish Andy Reid would make adjustments at halftime) just would like to know your exact strategy now? Good luck to all!
MrMonkey
Last edited by MrMonkey; 05-03-09 at 11:56 AM.
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05-04-09 10:38 AM #38
Every game has to be played yet I have never taken a -140 line since I have been doing this over the last several years. It's just not in my DNA. -125 is as far as I will go on paying vigoridh. Anything over that gets played flat. Anything over -140 is a collection of Crumbs for me. Only an idiot would take a -140 wager on a first inning run. If you look back at my wagering pattern for my everyday baseball games from the beginning of the year until current, you will NEVER see me take a wager over -135. I think I took th Twins ONE time. But my average is in the + when I wager and not in the negative. Just like in my everyday wagering pattern, if I see a -140 line out there I'm fading it and collecting the crumbs. I know how to make adjustments as necessary.
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05-04-09 12:56 PM #39
This has Monkey intrigued! Lines at 111.33 for Y and 118.67 for N! Did anybody see that coming? Not me! I think one person we all know did.
2008 at 111.33 now goes from -3160 to +6016! Lines have such a big range deviation, how do we know if more +or - were winners?
Why doesn't every book offer this prop? When Micky's opened shop, there went a BurgerKing next to it. I would think Prop betting would be a cash cow for the books. Except maybe 1-2 props out of 8-10 might not be?
We love to shop at the store with the bigger selection, just have to be discipline in what we buy? Like I said, Monkey is very intrigued!
MrMonkey
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05-04-09 02:49 PM #40
I don't know about anyone else, but at Bookmaker all the lines are minus except Fla/Cin and Sea/Tex, both at +105, Mil/Pitt at +110, and CWS/KC EV. This seems to be the pattern every day so far, most of the lines are minus odds for a YES bet.
Originally Posted by cocknocker
Last edited by RoagBettor; 05-04-09 at 02:57 PM.
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05-06-09 08:11 PM #41
I don't know about you guys but I am peeling so much money from this shit so far it's ridiculous
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05-06-09 09:26 PM #42
shhhhhhh....... Originally Posted by cocknocker
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05-08-09 11:06 AM #43
Are you doing the cheapline YES NO thing you talked about or just excluding over -130 to -140? Originally Posted by cocknocker
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05-08-09 12:49 PM #44
You have got some gaul there my friend! Why ask for info from an IFFY source! Originally Posted by therber2
PM me and I'll set up an appointment for you to speak to CK! It's Friday and not raining finally so Monkey is happy!
MrMonkey
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05-08-09 12:52 PM #45
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05-08-09 01:03 PM #46
Post 454 from TA's thread! Oh I'm sorry buddy, maybe you already apologized to CK? I'm outta here, so have a good weekend sir! Originally Posted by therber2
MrMonkey
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05-10-09 03:30 PM #47
Listen Guys.. I have already doubled my starting bank roll in the first week so i don't get why you people are hating on this system.. if you follow the following rules YOU WILL MAKE EASY MONEY EVERY DAY
Play any plus line for flat money
Play any line from -101 to -120 by paying the vig
Play anyline from -121 to 139 flat with no vig
Fade any line over -140
if you fade the -140 line just to give you an idea.. from friday to Sunday you would be 6-2 (6-2 that a run would not be scored.. thats +110 money min, on each of those wagers.. which helps with the vig)
seriously I almost hope you don't figure this system out..
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05-11-09 10:52 AM #48
kmar just curious what do you mean by vig? these are moneyline plays correct? the vig is in the line whether it is -130 or +110? can you explain? thanks.
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05-12-09 01:33 PM #49
He means when playing the lines -101 to -120, pay in so that you will win a whole unit, rather than at -121 to -139 you are just betting a unit with potential outcome of winning less than a whole unit.
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05-15-09 08:26 AM #50
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05-15-09 02:08 PM #51
So, can someone tell me what exactly this system is? The spreadsheets just have past results, but no clue as to what is being bet.
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05-16-09 12:32 AM #52
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05-16-09 01:10 PM #53
We are not "hating" on the system. The original rules were to bet every single game blindly to win 1 unit. Those rules will not make it profitable. That's all I'm saying. Now you coul adjust the strategy and I'm glad it's working for you, never said a tweak in the strategy wouldn't be profitable. Originally Posted by kmarinouofm
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05-20-09 09:57 AM #54
Originally Posted by kmarinouofm
Looks like somene is playing the system the correct way like I am. I couldn't have given a better example of my new wrinkles. This is an exact blueprint of what i am doing. Good job, KM
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05-20-09 02:14 PM #55
seriously shut up everyone.. i don't want to hear about this system anymore.. it is so simple , yet so many boneheads are screwing it up... i got my dad playing this stupid thing and he has never laid a bet in his life..
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05-20-09 02:19 PM #56
CK never said pay vig when he first posted this.. he always , always , always said play it flat at first.. which i knew would be the only way this system makes money.. just think about it logically..
I was playing it flat across the board at first without the new adjustments and was still making a killing.. The strength of this system is really in your units.. The bigger the unit.. the more you are going to love this system. However to give you an idea.. My father started with only 1k.. which is a 1/4 of what the doctor ordered. So we adjusted and cut his units down till it made sense (25 bucks= 1 unit for him right now) and he is up over 400 bucks in his first week, last i checked with him.
Originally Posted by cheme82
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05-23-09 12:29 AM #57
KM, I hate to say it, but I have gone degenerate and am playing ALL of them for yes flat. I just don't have the time in the morning to go through all of that figuring. I am so used to just doing them that I can't stop...I'm addicted to this shit...
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05-23-09 01:25 AM #58
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05-23-09 10:24 AM #59
Sorry guys but I a newbie and curious about this system.
I know you want to keep it off the thread but can someone PM me what the bet is exactly (I think I have an idea but want to make sure).
And i understand Post #47
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05-23-09 11:09 AM #60
raining money in here, interested to see how interleague will play out. historically i have data but we will see.
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05-23-09 11:11 AM #61
Originally Posted by cocknocker
let me pose it a different way. what if i said a stock has the potential to increase 55% in ONE DAY. well there is your -145 or whatever. you would slaughter firstborn if that was a bank account, money market or stock with that ROI so the notion of laying off worse odds is nothing more than an elegant rouse.
word to the wise, most of my "traditional" capping involves taking dogs.
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05-23-09 12:24 PM #62
Good call you 3 guys, and rpbrownie, my 2 cents says you and any guys interested, just PM any guys on this thread that are good with it! Not necessary to ask question here! And please with no disrespect, don't PM CK, he is too busy with the Heavier action to be involved any further with this! If you read his earlier post, you would ascertain that!
Once again, "A good deed never goes unpunished"! A extremely good deed was done, so leave it at that!
Oh by the way, has CK ever ask for a red cent from anybody! There the kind of friends I love, doing a favor without looking for something in return!
MrMonkey
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05-23-09 01:57 PM #63
A quick and dirty rundown for interleague games. (From May1st - regular season only)
2008 -5 wins
2007 +17 wins
2006 +21 wins
2005 +5 wins
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05-26-09 10:23 AM #64
since may 1st 56.7% overall
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05-27-09 11:47 AM #65
This is probably a dumb question but if both are -110 or something along that or -105 and -115 which one do you bet no score or yes score
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05-28-09 06:58 AM #66
YES and lay the vig. example if the the line is YES -115 you bey -1.15 units to win 1 unit.
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