1. 05-23-12 05:04 PM #106
    Smutbucket
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    5/23/12 - Good day to be alive.

    Braves (-120) risking 3.6 units to win 3units
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  2. 05-23-12 05:51 PM #107
    VictorHDH
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    Reds were looking good, but now i'm gonna pass. BOL
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  3. 05-23-12 09:18 PM #108
    Smutbucket
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    real gay loss. braves are terrible. thrown at home in the 1st. cant hit. eeeeesh.


    System YTD: 22-10 - +27.35 units
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  4. 05-24-12 12:20 AM #109
    VictorHDH
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    Tomorrow will be a great day. Keep posting winners
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  5. 05-24-12 03:03 PM #110
    Smutbucket
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    5/24/12 - gonna chase the braves, contrary to popular belief i believe this is a good play

    Atlanta (Even) - risking 2 units to win 2 units
    Mets (-135) risking 1.35 units to win 1 unit
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  6. 05-24-12 03:43 PM #111
    Bettalent
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    Thanks bro Let us cash these two
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  7. 05-24-12 11:53 PM #112
    Smutbucket
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    sorry fellas. braves just not getting it done. and I dunno what happened after that rain delay but all of a sudden hefner turned to shit. anyways ready for a big weekend. I know I say it all the time but in days with only 5-6 games on the card I need to layoff cuz they are killing me. Also, I ran outta weed last night for first time in 5 years and couldnt get any till after 8 pm, so this obviously another "variable" of why I did so terrible today.

    weekends are my bread and butter because of ALL the games, I think this system is like 8-0 in last two weekends or close to it....lets get it!

    System YTD: 22-12 (+24 units)
    System leans: 9-4
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  8. 05-25-12 05:29 AM #113
    Bettalent
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    Haha love your weed variable! Looking forward for your next bets Smut.
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  9. 05-25-12 05:02 PM #114
    Smutbucket
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    haha, ;-)..

    lets get it today.

    5/25/12
    Phil (-125) risking 3.75 units to win 3 units
    Det (-145) risking 1.45 units to win 1 units



    and a lean on Atlanta.

    Lets start the weekend off right
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  10. 05-25-12 10:39 PM #115
    Smutbucket
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    wahoo. good start to the weekend.

    2-0 +4units

    System YTD: 24-12 +28 units
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  11. 05-26-12 12:48 AM #116
    VictorHDH
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    Looks like the weed variable works again.
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  12. 05-26-12 12:56 AM #117
    Smutbucket
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    I will be sure to warn you all if I didnt smoke weed before making my picks....but I dont see that happening anytime in the next...month or so? hard to judge....
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  13. 05-26-12 08:37 AM #118
    Bettalent
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    Damn! I missed your bets. But it was a good night when DEVILS won the ECF!
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  14. 05-26-12 02:14 PM #119
    Smutbucket
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    Great day! I got a family dinner going on so I didnt have that much time to look into all the games. what I did was pretty much look for a few games I liked and dug into the numbers and found this little gem that I like. This pick is part of the "fade mike leake model" this moron got caught stealing $60 worth of tshirts from a department store so I doubt he understands the complexity of pitching in the major leagues and I think his last good outings were just against struggling hitting teams /missing lineups / physical talent can get pure dumb luck some of the time but not all the time. lots of value in this pick regardless if hits.

    5/26/12
    Colorado Rockies (+130) risking 1 unit to win 1.3 units
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  15. 05-26-12 02:19 PM #120
    Bettalent
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    Thanks bro, hope you smoked your weed
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  16. 05-27-12 01:05 AM #121
    VictorHDH
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    Looks like the weed variable is not working, You should relax, enjoy it and then throw us some picks
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  17. 05-27-12 06:37 AM #122
    Smutbucket
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    mike leake didnt implode. hes not as bad as I thought he was. and I move on....anyways not sure If theres gonna be a play today or not, honestly havent been putting as much time as I should into my picks but next week I'll be able to dedicate more of my time to picks....been up all night working (on other stuff) but just got done with a "big project" I had going for a while thats not baseball related. and now Im gonna pass out and maybe wake up in time top put something on one o clock games....

    best of luck to all....

    System YTD: 24-13 +27 units
    Leans: 9-5


    PS the weed variable was a joke, lets move on.
    Last edited by Smutbucket; 05-27-12 at 06:41 AM.
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  18. 05-27-12 12:21 PM #123
    Smutbucket
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    5/27/12

    Phillies (-105) risking 2.1 units to win 2 units
    Dodgers (-160) risking 1.6 units to win 1 unit
    Points Awarded:

    Bettalent gave Smutbucket 1 SBR Point(s) for this post.

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  19. 05-28-12 11:05 PM #124
    Smutbucket
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    After a nice day off relaxing for holiday Im ready to rededicate my time/money to all that is sabrmetrics this week.....

    ready for a big week....

    System YTD: 25-14 +25.9 units
    system leans: 9-5
    Last edited by Smutbucket; 05-28-12 at 11:06 PM. Reason: fixed units
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  20. 05-28-12 11:14 PM #125
    Up and Up
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    Outstanding!! Hope you had a great holiday and thank you for sharing your picks!!
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  21. 05-29-12 04:09 PM #126
    Smutbucket
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    5/29/12
    Baltimore (+120) risking 3 units to win 3.6 units
    SFG (-140) risking 2.8 units to win 2 units
    Rays (-160) risking 3.2 units to win 2 units

    First day with 3 picks, lets see how this does. LETS BREAK THE 30 unit mark!
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  22. 05-29-12 04:18 PM #127
    Smutbucket
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    Had some extra time today to writeup on baltimore. they really stood out for these reasons:

    Arrieta is (2-5, 4.87 ERA) and Romero is (5-1, 3.86 ERA). But wins and losses and ERA arent the best indicators of true value in pitching performance. A little time spent digging deeper into the "advanced" statistics will show you that. Arrieta is superior (in this season) to Romero in K/9 (by 1.7 K/9), has a whole 2.74 less BB/9 than Romero. Arrieta also leads in FIP, xFIP, WAR, and SIERA. Now time to look at the SITUATIONAL SPLITS. Arrieta has proven this year he is much stronger performer away then at home, this season his wOBA is .356 at home opposed to .260 away (this is rediculous difference) Although in his career he is only slightly better away then home. In his career Arrieta, has always performed significantly better against Righties (wOBA .298) of than Lefties (wOBA .374). And the BlueJays have an abundance of right handed batters. Although Romero has had slight more success at home then away, he has always significantly struggled in the month of may with a wOBA of .331 (physical/mental exhaustian perhaps). He also struggles significantly against Left handed batters in his career , (vs. Lefty wOBA .358) and (vs. Righty wOBA .294) and this season (vs Lefty wOBA .341) and (vs Right wOBA .279). And the Baltimore Orioles have some good hitting lefties. A quick glance at the Batter vs Pitcher History and Romero has statistically performed worse vs the Orioles Lineup than Arrieta has performed against the Toronto Blue Jays Lineup. As In regards to team batting performance, Baltimore has been hitting lefties well lately and are ranked in the top tier of most significant hitting categories. Toronto on the other hand is struggling against righties and are ranked in the bottom 10 in the same categories. Romero continues to show why he has struggled in may walking a career high 7 in just 6 innings. (He has walked 21 in his last 4 starts) Arrieta is coming off an average performace against a Boston team that is finally getting their bats back, and before that he had a stellar performance against the best team in the NL East, the Nationals. In spite of all these facts I have presented to you, Toronto is still a "favorite" to win, and free (terrible) services like "accuscore" will tell you that TOR should win this game 55% of the time. Yesterday the line opened up at +135 for Baltimore Orioles, it is now at +110 and dropping. Although this change in value isnt anything that will effect the game, I think its a good indicator that shows the books are trying to balance their books and minimize their losses in the event the Baltmore wins
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  23. 05-30-12 12:02 PM #128
    Smutbucket
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    Going thru a cold streak. sorry to all who tail. make sure to bet within your means to sustain times like these....

    anyways...like tyson ross a lot last year....

    5/30/12
    Oakland (-105) risking 2.1 units to win 2 units
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  24. 05-31-12 06:20 AM #129
    Smutbucket
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    Hello friends, Gotta step away from the game for a while and re-coup my head. honestly in my head I know what the problem is, lately I just been lazy about my picks and part of it is bc all my moneys tied up and am gambling pennies of what I used to bet and part of it is just me tired of looking at all the numbers. sometimes I like to just sit back and watch the games, and relax without having to have money on them. Anyways this is a perfect opportunity for me to do that also because I have all my cash tied up in other investment for about week-2weeks so Im gonna lay off the numbers till then. Also a little advice, I think I just heard from "stevenash" someone who I respect on these forums is to always bet within your means, if your not betting withing you means, it won't be enjoyable when you lose. and I am almost to the point of betting beyond my means (atleast until this investments pay out in 2 weeks) I dont have a job, I dont recieve any government handouts or aid from anyone. I rely solely on saved up money Ive made in past/prior investments and that puts more weight on me to try to make this profit, but grinding out the numbers isnt the way to do it, atleast for me. anyways I wouldnt feel like I would be doing this "system" justice and frankly I havent with a majority of losses (especially todays oakland) could have been prevented (maybe half) but I guess thats always easier to say after the fact. I will be back around half way thru june to pick up on system.


    System YTD: 26-17 +19.7 units
    system leans: 9-5
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  25. 06-05-12 05:44 PM #130
    Smutbucket
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    This one really standing out to me today. enough to qualify pretty well
    woulda fit better with encarnacion in but Ill take it anyway,

    6/5/12
    Toronto (-105) risking 2.1 units to win 2 units
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  26. 06-05-12 10:26 PM #131
    Smutbucket
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    winner.

    ytd: 27-17 +21.7 units
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  27. 06-12-12 06:23 PM #132
    Smutbucket
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    6/12/12

    Phillies (-105) risking 2.1 units to win 2 units
    Seattle (-175) risking 1.75 units to win 1 unit
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  28. 06-17-12 11:42 AM #133
    Smutbucket
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    Happy Fathers Day. Back and doing things the right way. conservative and time consuming. today just 1

    6/17/12
    Cleveland First Five (-140) risking 2.8 units to win 2 units
    Last edited by Smutbucket; 06-17-12 at 11:42 AM. Reason: fixed line
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  29. 06-18-12 05:34 PM #134
    Smutbucket
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    6/18/12
    Toronto -110 risking 3.3 units to win 3 unitss
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  30. 06-19-12 06:25 PM #135
    DemoralizdDreamr
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    any late plays/leans today?
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  31. 06-19-12 06:29 PM #136
    Smutbucket
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    not really man, havent really had much time to put in capping, gonna try to pick this up after IL play.....last season same shit happened, I was doing real well picking 1-2 games a day for first couple months but come june I always struggle, IL play just not enough numbers for me to go off, plus a lot of new pitchers called up and still need to get adjusted.....next season Im going to pound this system first 2 months of season because I know I can profit....

    small leans on nice value: giants +180.....but didnt look at numbers just soley off what I know about pitchers, zito has always pitched real well away from home in his career too
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  32. 06-19-12 07:39 PM #137
    thekidfanky
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    good thread, just started reading...hope u have some plays to come BOL!
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  33. 06-19-12 08:23 PM #138
    DemoralizdDreamr
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    i went with angels, phillies and thunder ml parlay. philly's about to win, OKC is looking very good with a 11 point lead and angels should take it.
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  34. 08-14-12 02:16 PM #139
    Smutbucket
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    Officially closing "The Promising System" tracked thread. Sorry I couldnt add more to this thread, to be honest, I just had poor money management wreck me, I was doing so well in the beginning, so then when I went on cold streak, I kept chasing my losses, rookie mistake, honeslty if I had a steady income/job right now I woulda tried to put more time in it, but after 5/29 didnt wanna risk too much more given the fact that I had no promised income at the time ( havent had "steady income" since last year august I was arrested/stuck in jail for 3 months for marijuana charges). (on 5/29/12 I got buried like a lot of people, LTA couple other good cappers were big on BALT, all signs pointed to BALT, due to like 7 errors in first 3 innings they lost the game, but I guess thats all part of the game. Also had TB against Humber real big, they lost as well). Anyways, Still learned a lot this season, and will definately be posting my picks next year in a thread, called The "promised" system [atleast for +12 units ], hopefully each year I can improve on my picks and practice good money management/ have enough funds to dedicate to sports handicapping to make it "worth my while" per say.

    The being said, I love college football, I have set aside a couple hundred bucks for the upcoming season / and NFL of course....feel free to msg me about it/got system ideas/ Ill probably start a thread for NFL/NCAA football picks and discussions

    Final NumberS:
    ytd: 27-21 +11.75 units
    leans : 9-6
    (went 1-5 (-9.85 units) after 5/29/11 (day I got buried/stopped putting the time in to the numbers I should have)
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