[gregm]

That YTD should read 52-43 +17.11

I finally had that breakthrough day yesterday, lots of favorites covered that one run line. I am not seeing much I like on todays card. I dont like laying this heavy number on the Nationals but Strasburg continually seems to impress me as one of the best pitchers in baseball when he is healthy and his numbers facing a pitcher like Weiland and the Astros justify the juice here. Having one of the best pitchers in baseball facing one of the worst teams in baseball and Weiland posting an ERA in the 7 range and 2.00 whip seems like a good spot to lay this run line.

Strasburgs numbers have actually been better on the road but I think that will change and he looked absolutely dominant against the Mets after the first inning. You could justify the run line against weiland alone looking at his numbers, Weiland would not be in most teams starting rotation but I don't think the Astros have much to lose here by letting him in the rotation. The astros have actually won a few here to start the season but I think that is about to change as they go on the road and they have dropped 4 of their last 5. Watch for the pitch count on Strasburg though, hopefully they let him go deep into this one but the nats bullpen, especially Stammen, has been impressive.

Nationals -1 -175 risk 1.75

National (1st 5) -.5 -145 risk 1.45

I read a stat this morning, The Yankees have beat the twins 33 out of 40 games in New York and the Yanks are now facing one of the worst Twins teams in memory. The Twins are just coming off being swept and Pavanos numbers are pretty poor here facing the Yanks and they were pretty poor when he was with the Yankees as well. Pavano is off to another poor start to this year and got shelled against the Angels and the Orioles, now he faces a Yankees teams whose bats seem to be waking up and who are now 5-1 in their last 6.

Yankees -1 -134 risk 2.68

Dbacks/Pirates u8.5 +100 risk 1

Giants Phillies u3 (1st 5) -105 risk 1.05