[MagicDiceFlow]

I've been betting these since 1997 and made many mistakes when I just started out. These are very tempting bets and may appear fast and easy. You have to pick your spots and don't just go blindly across the board just to get a quick fix. Thats a recipe for disaster.

Yesterday was a good day for the No score but in the course of a season, you will see it even out to about 53% NO /47% YES. Given those odds, it may appear that the No bets have the advantage but not really. The chalk that must be layed from -120 to -170 for the No, the Yes bets are actually more profitable in the long run.

Also, the first inning is sometimes the most volatile even for the best pitchers. It takes them an inning or two to get warmed up. That's why you'll see sometimes a great pitcher will give up a run in the first inning then will proceed to shutout the rest of the game. I've seen it happen to all the best from Halladay to Verlander.

Also, if you get a leadoff double, you're pretty much screwed as that runner will score over 60% of the time. The leadoff hitter is gonna be your quickest player most of the time and another single or two sacrifices....heck you dont even need another base hit sometimes.......he scores.

Remember, the key is picking good spots with considerations to not only pitchers but the opposing hitting lineups from 1-4 and a vital but often overlooked component is the quality of their leadoff hitter(does he have a good on base percentage)?

Best of luck on all your bets and hope everyone has a great MLB season!

[rubyruubes]

so..any leans on any games later on?

[MarkTX]

MDF - thanks great post. I see people playing these every year but was always wary to play them myself as I have witnessed the same thing. For every night like last night you'll also have nights when almost every team scores in the first. It seems like a coin flip sometimes. But if you ever post yours I'll be tailing them - you seem to hit them pretty well.

BOL man.

[MarkTX]

Just look at today - every game has scored in the first!Pena just hit a grand slam off Sabathia!

[BigDofBA]

I've been betting these since 1997 and made many mistakes when I just started out. These are very tempting bets and may appear fast and easy. You have to pick your spots and don't just go blindly across the board just to get a quick fix. Thats a recipe for disaster.

Yesterday was a good day for the No score but in the course of a season, you will see it even out to about 53% NO /47% YES. Given those odds, it may appear that the No bets have the advantage but not really. The chalk that must be layed from -120 to -170 for the No, the Yes bets are actually more profitable in the long run.

Also, the first inning is sometimes the most volatile even for the best pitchers. It takes them an inning or two to get warmed up. That's why you'll see sometimes a great pitcher will give up a run in the first inning then will proceed to shutout the rest of the game. I've seen it happen to all the best from Halladay to Verlander.

Also, if you get a leadoff double, you're pretty much screwed as that runner will score over 60% of the time. The leadoff hitter is gonna be your quickest player most of the time and another single or two sacrifices....heck you dont even need another base hit sometimes.......he scores.

Remember, the key is picking good spots with considerations to not only pitchers but the opposing hitting lineups from 1-4 and a vital but often overlooked component is the quality of their leadoff hitter(does he have a good on base percentage)?

Best of luck on all your bets and hope everyone has a great MLB season!

Yep. Someone in another thread said they hit at like 80% last year. That's a bunch of BS.

[rubyruubes]

SHEESH. that was monstrous

[rubyruubes]

how do you guys feel about the SF/AZ game for the 1st inning?

[BigDofBA]

how do you guys feel about the SF/AZ game for the 1st inning?

Why not just bet on the game instead of a prop?

Odds are there won't be a run scored in that game but it's not worth paying the juice if you lose.

[onlooker]

Yep. Someone in another thread said they hit at like 80% last year. That's a bunch of BS.

You must of missed him saying it was a joke. Plus if anyone believes that hitting 80%, then I feel sorry for them.

[ram749]

Run scored in the 1st in all early games , won't ever bet these props again, I'm throwing away my winnings from yesterday !!

[MagicDiceFlow]

MDF - thanks great post. I see people playing these every year but was always wary to play them myself as I have witnessed the same thing. For every night like last night you'll also have nights when almost every team scores in the first. It seems like a coin flip sometimes. But if you ever post yours I'll be tailing them - you seem to hit them pretty well.

BOL man.

You have a cautious and prudent mindset which are successful traits to have when betting. You'll do well in the long run.

Because of yesterday's barrage of No's , I took the day off on these bets and luckily so as the Yes bets are scoring left and right today.
I'll post in advance whenever I come across some good spots that arent too juice heavy.

BOL MARKTX.

[face]

value is on "yes" with the plus money, "no" is too expensive

[MagicDiceFlow]

Chalk up another one for the YES as Brewers just scored in the first. Immediate swing of tides from yesterday to today, every game now has scored in the 1st inning.