By: Ganchrow Sports The combination of vulnerable starting pitchers (BH Kim and Aaron Sele), less than stellar bullpens, decent offenses and a low total has Ganchrow playing the over in this afternoon's Rockies-Dodgers contest in Los Angeles.
The Dodgers have been a very hot and cold team this year, and not only with respect to wins and losses. They have also had stretches where they have trended heavily over or under as well (mostly over).
They are currently in a streak of home overs, with all five of the games on their current home stand having gone over the total. This has been a common occurrence for the Dodgers this year, as their home games have been overs at an impressive 64% clip (44-25), which includes a stretch in August where they trended heavily to the under.
For this game, we will call for another over. The starting pitching for this game is shaky at best, and far inferior to the starting pitching in each of the first two games of this series.
Colorado starter Byung-Hyun Kim just doesn't bring much to the table in terms of stuff or velocity. With his small frame, he relies on deception and location, which leaves him with a small margin for error. Against weak-hitting teams who are seeing him for the first time, he gets a lot more leeway, and he can at times be effective. But against productive offenses who have faced him once or twice before, as the Dodgers' offense is and has, he is very vulnerable.
Kim has always intertwined terrible starts with his effective ones, but recently he has begun to throw clunker after clunker. He has thrown a considerable amount of duds on the road this year, and another one is looming here. Even if he doesn't get crushed, a shut down start is unlikely.
On the other side, Dodgers' starter Aaron Sele is no more promising. He has been a sub-par starter for a few years now, and his light-tossing, junkball pitching style isn't likely to result in any kind of sustained major league success.
Early this season he did string together some solid home starts, and that is not insignificant. But since the All-Star break, his performance at home has been as poor as it has been on the road. A shut down start from him in this game is unlikely.
Adding it all up, this game involves two very vulnerable starting pitchers, two mediocre bullpens, two currently productive offenses, a modest total, and a home park with both a season-long and recent trend to the over. This gives the over value as a significantly better than 50% proposition.
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Rockies at Dodgers - Sep 3rd
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