[morningmoney]

Been lurking here a while, so I thought I'd share my dog system. I take the day's dogs and check them against the parameters below. Those that meet the most criteria are the plays for the day.

Home Dogs
Divisional game
1st homestand after 3 or 4 series roadie
1st game of the series
3rd game of the series after losing 2
Offense hot L6 games
Team on winning streak or won 6 of L10
Bats well vs opp L/R pitcher
WHIP advantage
Over +150
Coming off a series win/tie vs team off a loss or series loss
Vs team has poor road rec
Vs slumping L10
Vs non-division team coming off sweep
Vs team just threw two consecutive shutouts
Vs team on 3rd or 4th series of roadie


Away Dogs
Divisional game
Offense hot L6 games
Team on winning streak or won 6 of L10
Bats well vs opp L/R pitcher
WHIP advantage
Over +150 and non-division
Coming off a series win/tie vs team off a loss or series loss
Vs team has poor home rec
Vs slumping L10
Vs non-division team coming off sweep
Vs team just threw two consecutive shutouts


I'll be posting the plays here for anyone who's interested in following along. A lot of the parameters don't come into play for a couple of weeks but I always start playing it on opening day.

Good Luck to the forum

[Elysee26]

Like to see more Morningmoney, BOL...

[dowecheat'em&how]

bol morning money, i will tail i love playing dogs. i have a thread where we fade ben lee ekstein aka mr. chalk plays big favs all the time. aagain bol with all your plays looking forward to your posts.......DWCH

[DoctorD]

waiting. BOL

[bipolar]

do you have records from past seasons with this strategy?

[morningmoney]

do you have records from past seasons with this strategy?

Sorry, no recs.

[morningmoney]

bol morning money, i will tail i love playing dogs. i have a thread where we fade ben lee ekstein aka mr. chalk plays big favs all the time. aagain bol with all your plays looking forward to your posts.......DWCH

Very cool. I'll have to check that out. You can't go wrong when you start out by fading big chalk. BOL.

[morningmoney]

Some games to keep an eye on today:


PHI (8-9) @ BAL (6-7)

Some scouts are saying there’s something wrong with Halladay’s velocity as he sports a 10.57 era in 3 Grapefruit League starts this spring. Phils are also weighted by injuries.

LAA (9-7) @ KC (9-7)

Angels (.319) and Royals (.303) are ranked 1-2 in BA this spring and in top 5 overall offensively. LAA pitcher CJ Wilson is 2-0 with solid .78 WHIP after 9 innings.


PIT (6-9) @ NYY (8-9)

Pit has shown a better fielding team this spring than the Yanks. They’re also hitting 20 points higher and slugging 60 points better. Pirate Erik Bedard has 5 inn in the books this spring allowing 2 hits 2 runs and 5 SO while allowing a only a .133 avg.

[Joe D. 416]

Mise well play a round robin with BAL, LAA, and PITT.

[morningmoney]

Mise well play a round robin with BAL, LAA, and PITT.

That's the spirit.

[morningmoney]

Quick recap of yesterday’s looks:


PHI 4 @ BAL 1
Halladay pitched great, looks like his old self. The O’s kept it tied 1-1 until the 7th.

LAA 4 @ KC 6
The Royals broke a 4-4 tie in the eighth inning with two runs. Left-hander C. J. Wilson continued to look impressive.

PIT 3 @ NYY 10
The Bucs scored 2 in the 1st but the Yanks broke it open in the middle innings. Rivera pitched and got the win.



Dogs to watch today:

SD (10-8) @ LAD (9-5)
The Padres and the Dodgers are just a few points apart in BA, SLG, OPS and overall offense this spring with SD holding the slight edge in all categories. Tim Stauffer (0-1) goes up against Ted Lilly (2-1). LA won last night while the Pads have won their last 4.

MIN (11-8) @ DET (13-2)
Det looks strong this spring and so does Minnesota. The Twins have won 7 of their last 10 games including the last 3 in a row. Minn’s Liam Hendriks is 1-0 with 9 SO in 7 inn pitched so far with no earned runs. He goes up against Andrew Oliver for the Tigers who is pitching great this spring. Minnesota has shown slightly better fielding as a team thus far and Detroit’s overall pitching this year is ranked 2nd while Minn is 13th.

TB (5-10) @ NYY (9-9)
Tampa will def be up for this game. While their offense has been shit so far, their pitching is ranked 6th overall this spring with a combined ERA of 3.44 and a WHIP of 1.28. The Yanks won big last night in a game that saw Mariano pitch. NY is 3-6 in road games this spring.

[morningmoney]

With the Royals’ win on Tuesday and the two wins yesterday, our spring training record so far is 3-3 for about +.6 units (for whatever that's worth). At this point we are just trying to get a feel for the teams and find dogs with a chance to win. Here's a quick recap of yesterday’s picks:

SD 3 @ LAD 0
Dodgers left-hander Ted Lilly was bumped from his scheduled start and got roughed up in the minors by the Cleveland Indians Class A team. SD held on to a 3-0 lead.

MIN 7 @ DET 3
Hendriks is off to a great start this spring and improves to 2-0. Detroit’s Oliver struggled with his control.

NYY 5 @ TB 2
Game was knotted at 2-2 until NY scored 3 in the 9th.




There’s a lot of split-squad games this afternoon but a few morning games offer us degenerates some opportunities.


TB (5-11) @ PIT (7-10)
Two crappy teams go head to head. But note that TB’s run diff is -28 vs Pitt’s -4. Also, Pirate Jeff Karstens is off to a good start with 8 inn pitched and 1 ER. The Rays look to start James Shields and dude is on his game (2-0, 0.75). If pitching and pens hold up, Pitt may be able to squeak by Tampa’s anemic offense in a potentially low scoring game.

PHI (9-9) @ TOR (15-4)
Toronto’s been hot this month but the Phillies are playing good, consistent ball. They send Cliff Lee (1-1, 4.66) to the mound to take on Brandon Morrow (1-0, 1.08). Both teams are close in overall hitting and pitching but the Phils have a slight edge in fielding.

[morningmoney]

A quick recaps at yesterday’s looks:


TB 8 @ PIT 6
Karstens walked 4 and the Bucs had 3 errors. The game was close into the late innings.

PHI 0 @ TOR 2
Brandon Morrow allowed one hit over six innings, outdueling Cliff Lee for the win in a low scoring game.



Today’s dogs to ponder:

B0S (9-7) @ BAL (7-9)
The Red Sox have a better hitting and better fielding team this spring than Baltimore. Also, Boston has a run diff of +9 while the O’s have a -8. They're both 3-5 over their last 8 games. Hard to ignore Boston’s slight edge in this matchup.


NYM (5-12) @ ATL (6-13)
These two are pretty evenly matched in hitting and pitching but the Mets have a little better run diff (-19) than the Braves (-34). Met John Niese (1-0, 2.61) takes on Brave Mike Minor (0-0, 0.00) who’s walked 5 in 14 innings this spring and has struggled with his control. Slight lean to NY.


WAS (5-11) @ HOU (9-9)
Neither team has been hitting well and their run diffs are about the same but I like the pitching advantage for the Nats in this one. Their overall pitching is ranked 11th vs Houston’s 25th. Washington is slated to start Jordan Zimmermann (0-0, 3.38) against Houston’s Bud Norris (1-1, 7.50) who got slammed in his last outing giving up 5 earned runs in 6 innings.


CHC (9-12) @ COL (10-9)
The Cubs are 10th in hitting while the Rockies are 14th. Chicago also ranks 12th in fielding vs Colorado’s 13th. Cubby Jeffrey Samardzija (1-1, 2.70) has 9 SO in 10 inn this spring. He’ll be matching up against Tyler Chatwood (1-1, 3.86) who has also been pitching well. The Cubs’ moneyline is currently at +116 for this evenly matched game.

[tcarn01]

morningmoney.. so are you taking bos or bal? bos is favored. can't really tell on your write-ups who you have??

[morningmoney]

Sorry for the confusion, bro. I saw the Red Sox at +108 earlier but things may have changed. The matchup still leans towards Boston. The play is Bos if you can get plus money.

[tcarn01]

all good. thanks..

[morningmoney]

Good morning.
Here's a recap of Friday’s games:


B0S 5 @ BAL 6
Clay Buchholz had a shaky outing yesterday giving up two home runs. This back and forth game saw the Sox mount a comeback but fall short in the end.

NYM 4 @ ATL 9
Scheduled to go six innings, ATL’s Minor left in the fifth after giving up 3 runs, 2 earned, while walking 4 and striking out 3. New York tied the game in the fifth on a two-runsingle, but left the bases loaded and didn’t score again. Met pitching gave up 6 runs in the middle innings.

WAS 1 @ HOU 5
The Nationals are 0-9-1 in their past 10 spring games. Jayson Werth’s single off Myers in the seventh inning was the first hit for the Nats. They suck.

CHC 10 @ COL 8
Samardzija was roughed up for seven runs and 10 hits in four innings, but theCubs were able to outslug Colorado for the win.




Today's looks:


NYY (12-9) @ DET (14-3)
Starting pitchers here are pretty evenly matched and while Detroit has a hot offense (ranked #1), the Yanks are also playing well. Both teams have a positive run diff but the thing to note here is Detroit’s atrocious fielding. They rank 29th in the league so far this spring. With the Yanks winning their last 4 games, I like NY’s chances.

LAA (12-8) @ TX (6-14)
The Angels match up Earvin Santana (0-0, 2.45) against Greg Reynolds (1-1, 5.14) who’s given up 7 hits and 4 runs in 7 innings this spring. The Angels have the edge in hitting and fielding in this one. Also, their run diff is a +40 vs Tex’s -15. Momentum is also on the Halos’ side as they’ve won 3 straight. At the time of this writeup the Angels have a +105 line but I see that fading fast.

CHW (8-12) @ MIL (7-11)
The Brewers trot out Randy Wolf and his 3-0 mark today against the White Sox but Milwaukee is still in the bottom 3rd tier of hitting, pitching and fielding stats this spring. The Chi Dubs are no powerhouse either but they’ve won 6 of 10. They have a good chance to take this one.

KC (12-9) @ AZ (8-12)
Kansas City is2nd in hitting vs Arizona’s ranking of 25. The Royals also hold an edge in pitching and fielding. Even the run diff is on KC’s side with a +6 vs AZ’s -43. Diamondback pitching has been getting slammed this spring so I wouldn’t be surprised if KC posts a few crooked numbers in today’s boxscore.



have a great day.

[morningmoney]

Had a nice 4 game sweep yesterday with our selections. Here’s a quick wrap up:

NYY 4 @ DET 2
Detroit’s poor defense held up and this low-scoring game went to extra innings. Dewayne Wise hit a two-run double in the 10th for the Yankees. Audy Ciriaco homered for the Tigers in the ninth against D.J. Mitchell.


LAA 3 @ TEX 2
LA’s Earvin Santana pitched 5 innings Saturday allowing 5 hits and a run, helping the Angels to a 3-2 victory in the first of back-to-back games between their division opponents. Ranger Greg Reynolds gave up one unearned run and two hits in five innings.


CHW 6 @ MIL 4
Randy Wolf gave up 2 ER in 5 2/3 for the Brewers on Saturday striking out four. The White Sox hurlers gave up 3 ER and struck out 9 while holding Milwaukee scoreless from the 5th inning on. Chicago’s no-name offense collected 10 hits, scoring 5 ER.


KC 6 @ AZ 5
KC pitcher Jonathan Sanchez looked sharp going 5 1/3 innings allowing 2 ER and striking out 6. Arizona’s Tyler Skaggs, one of the Diamondbacks' top prospects, took the loss. He allowed 4 runs and 7 hits in 3 innings. The Royals held on for a 6-5 win.


Sunday’s dogs to watch:

MIA (7-10) @ TB (6-13)
These two teams are dead last in hitting but the fish are in the top 5 in pitching and fielding. Miami also has a better run diff with a -16 vs Tampa’s -43. With the starting pitchers sharing comparable stats, Miami’s Marlins have a good chance to reel this one in.

MIN (13-10) @ STL (12-6)
St. Louis is having a great spring but they may have their hands full as they host Minnesota this afternoon. The Twins have won 6 of their last 10 and edge the Cards in fielding and hitting. Particularly noteworthy is St. Louis’ 26th ranking in hitting vs Minnesota’s 5th ranking in fielding. Nick Blackburn, starting for the Twins, has yet to give up a run in 7 innings. With both teams sporting a positive run diff and coming off wins, the stats seem to lean toward Minnesota in this one.

NYM (5-13) @ WAS (5-13)
The Nationals host the Mets today and it could get a little ugly. Washington is starting gascan Stephen Strasburg who is 0-3 with a 5.52 ERA this month, allowing 13 hits and 9 ER in 14 2/3. NY’s Matt Harvey has 3 walks, no hits and 2 SO in 4 innings. With both teams evenly matched in hitting, pitching and fielding while sharing similar run diffs, the Mets stand a good chance today against the hapless Nats who’ve lost their last 10.

CHC (10-13) @ CLE (6-13)
Cleveland’s Jeanmar Lopez is 1-0 in 11 innings pitched so far giving up 4 hits and 0 ER. He’ll match up against the Cubs’ Rodrigo Lopez who's also pitched 11 innings and has a .83 whip with a 2.25 ERA. And while the starters look strong, it’s the offensive and defensive matchups that garner some attention here. The Tribe are 23rd in hitting vs the Cubs’ 16th ranking in fielding and Chicago is 14th in hitting while Cleveland ranks 20th in fielding. The Cubs also have a 20 point run diff advantage over the Indians. The value in this line appears to be on the side of the Cubs.

[morningmoney]

Things are getting interesting as we work our way towards opening day. The picks are 10-10 so far for a little over a unit and a half. Let's hope we can maintain this consistency throughout the remainder of the spring and into the season. Here’s a quick look at Sunday’s picks:

MIA 5 @ TB 1
Miami’s pitching and defense held Tampa to a single run as we hoped to project. Rays starter Wade Davis struggled in what could be his final bid to make Tampa Bay's rotation.

MIN 2 @ STL 9
It was close until the starters came out, then it was all St. Louis. There were also two rain delays.

NYM 0 @ WAS 12
This game was indeed ugly and over early as the Nats routed the Mets. Strasburg was nails allowing 5 hits in 5 innings with 5 strikeouts and a walk.

CHC 6 @ CLE 2
The Cubs got 13 hits and were helped by 4 Cleveland errors - 3 within a span of two batters in a three-run seventh against Indian reliever Rafael Perez.



Monday’s dogs to catch:

HOU (11-11) @ WAS (6-13)
The Nats got a win last night but are still in poor shape. They’re hitting 26th in the league and are 1-9 over the last 10. Though the 'stros aren't much better, they still have a great defensive team, ranking #1 overall while allowing just 8 errors against Washington’s 20. With a current line of 124, the lean is towards Houston.

KC (13-10) @ SF (13-10)
Both teams look good so far with stellar offenses and a positive run diff. But one can’t ignore the rather large discrepancy between the Royals’ 2nd ranked offense and the Giants’ 25th ranked defense. San Fran has committed 27 errors so far this month and they’re allowing stolen bases at an insane .556 clip. Additionally, KC has scratched in Luis Mendoza to take the mound and dude is money. In 4 starts and 11.2 innings he’s allowed only 1 ER while SO 12 and giving up 1 BB. If the stats hold up today, the Royals should edge the Giants.

CIN (10-14) @ TEX (6-16)
These teams are pretty evenly matched in most categories, however, it’s interesting to note that Tex is only 1-10 at home. Also, today's pitching seems to favor Cincy. The Reds will start lefty Jeff Francis (0-1, 2.77) who has a .92 whip, 8 SO and 0 walks in 13 innings against Ranger righty Colby Lewis (0-2, 6.55) who’s given up 12 hits and 8 ER in 11 innings. With the Reds going 5-5 over their L10 and the Rangers going 3-7, I'm giving Cincinnati the slight nod in this contest.

[figue]

[morningmoney]

All 3 dogs lost yesterday. Two for today.




LAA (14-9) @ SF (14-10)
The Angels have the #1 offense going into this game and start Brad Mills, who’s gone 8.2 giving up 3 hits and no ER. Lincecum (2-0, 4.50) takes the mound for SF and has given up 18 hits and 7 ER in 14 innings.


COL (13-10) @ ARI (9-14)
The Rockies have the Dbacks beat in nearly all categories and starter Jeremy Guthrie is coming off a 4.2 scoreless innings in his last start vs the Dodgers. The run diff also favors the Rockies.

[morningmoney]

We got the split this afternoon to wrap up the spring session. The dogs went 11-14 for a loss of about a unit and a half. Moving on...

The first game of the 2012 season is a a play for us. Using the system outlined in post #1, we see that Oakland falls into a few categories, these being *Home Dog, *1st game of the series, *Offense hot L6 games, and *Team on winning streak or won 6 of L10. We'll use these qualifiers along with some basic handicapping until we can turn the system on autopilot (mostly) in a few weeks. Our basic handicapping shows us that this spring Oakland's Brandon McCarthy (0-0, 4.63) has had control problems while Seattle's Felix Hernandez has been inconsistent, alternating wins and losses for a 2-2, 4.50 mark. But the A's finished atop the Cactus League with a 14-5 mark, 2.5 games better than the Mariners and clipped them in hitting, fielding and overall pitching along the way. With a dog's price, there's some value in the Oaktown play early tomorrow.

Here's to a great season and Good Luck to the forum.

[airattackers]

@morningmoney...i will tail you and your plays...please let me know where to find them..

[morningmoney]

@morningmoney...i will tail you and your plays...please let me know where to find them..

Welcome aboard, airattackers, and tread lightly as this system has never been documented. The plays will be listed here but we might set up a twitter. We're waiting until our next game which is prolly the STL @ MIA game, Wed 04/04.

[morningmoney]

With baseball season so seemingly reluctant to start, it’s good practice to keep sniffing out the spring dogs. Here’s a few that jump out at me today:


TOR (21-4) @ BOS (12-10)
The Jays have the #1 ranked pitching staff so far and boast a 9 game winning streak as they take on the Red Sox later today, who’ve won only 3 of their last 10. Toronto also has a run diff of +78 vs Boston’s +19.

HOU (13-12) @ NYM (6-16)
Grapefruit League cellar dwellers, the NY Mets (3-8 at home), host the Houston Astros. The ‘stros have the stat advantage edging the Mets in offense, L10, win streak, run diff and more notably, fielding with Houston ranked #1 (.989 FPCT, 10 errors) and NY ranked #30 (.969 FCPT, 28 errors).

SF (15-11) @ TEX (9-16)
It’s Matt meets Matt as the Giant’s Matt McCain goes up against Ranger Matt Harrison. Both pitchers are just killing it this spring so the early innings could be close. However, that may change once we see the pens. SF’s pitching staff (ranked 5th overall) has a team ERA of 3.41 vs Texas’ 5.01 ERA (ranked 25th overall). Further, the Giants are 8-3 on the road while the Rangers are sitting on a 3-10 home mark. Frisco’s run diff is slightly better as well, besting Tejas by about 25 points.

[morningmoney]

Dog picks were 2-1 yesterday. For today:

TB (8-16) @ PIT (18-17)
Tampa’s bottom-ranked offense (30th) has only scored 84 runs this spring (29th). They’re also last in team BA (.222) and have the 2nd worst run diff in the league (-48). Pittsburgh counters with a respectable 10th ranked offense that boasts a team BA of .280 and a slugging percentage that is over 100 points higher than that of the Rays. With Tampa Bay’s Matt Moore (0-1, 9.00) and Pittsburgh's Brad Lincoln (0-0, 10.50) in a race to see who can get lifted first, we could have a wild one here.

PHI (12-14) @ NYY (13-11)
The Phils have the slight edge going into this one in regards to hitting and fielding. The discrepancy between NY’s 23rd ranked offense and Philadelphia’s 7th ranked defense is particularly noteworthy. Both teams are pretty solid going in with similar run diffs hovering around the even mark but the Phillies should give the Yanks a game today.

MIA (10-11) @ WAS (10-14)
The Marlins may not be able to hit the ball for shit but they have the #1 ranked defense and the #2 ranked pitching staff in the league. Contrast that against the Nat’s weak offense (206 SO and .254 team BA) and there seems to be some value in the fish pick. Marlin starter Josh Johnson (2-1, 1.62), who has 15 SO in 16.2 innings, will probably be adding to that Washington SO total (5th highest).

[PharaohUB]

Tampa Bay is -150?

[morningmoney]

Tampa Bay is -150?

Yep, damn near. The lineups don't look too crazy, either.

[dowecheat'em&how]

morning, are you going to post here or twitter dont have twitter acct and dont want to tail if you are not going to post all plays here but bol on your plays.........DWCH

[jturn49]

sounds interesting, bol

[morningmoney]

morning, are you going to post here or twitter dont have twitter acct and dont want to tail if you are not going to post all plays here but bol on your plays.........DWCH

I will post and record the plays here. No twitter.

[morningmoney]

04/04

STL (0-0) @ MIA (0-0)
The Cards game today is a play. It matches 5 parameters for the Away Dogs as described in the top post. Specifically, those are: *Offense hot L6 games (31 runs, two 9 runs games), *Team on winning streak or won 6 of L10 (7-3 L10), *WHIP advantage (Lohse 0.97 < Johnson 1.39), *Over +150 and non-division (+163, Central @ East), and *Vs slumping L10 (MIA 3-7 L10).

I won’t be able to post the specifics each day but feel free to ask about the data anytime. The system is currently 0-1 counting the Oakland loss from last week.

[airattackers]

@morningmoney...any plays for tommorrow?

[morningmoney]

@morningmoney...any plays for tommorrow?

Sorry for the delay, gents. Got killed by a stomach bug overnight. Fortunately for us, the only play today is the Cubs game so there's still time to get in your play.

[morningmoney]

04/05

Rec 1-1, +.62u


Previous:
STL 4 @ WAS 1


Today's play:

WAS (0-0) @ CHC (0-0)
The cubbies meet 5 of out parameters in this game. GL