Toronto 76% - The Boston Faders Party Bus is still going strong, and tonight it looks like it could be rockin' once again. The key of course will be who is in and who is out of the Red Sox lineup.

David Ortiz has said he plans to return on Saturday. All reports indicate Manny Ramirez is very unlikely to return for this game, and on Wednesday Red Sox manager Terry Francona said this: "Whether it's five days, 10 days, we just don't know. But I think by saying two days, we're doing him a disservice. We've got to let this heal." Wily Mo Pena and Coco Crisp could be back, but may well be far less than 100%.

Facing Roy Halladay is only likely to magnify and compound Boston's problems further. Halladay has a very low degree of volatility, which boosts Toronto's chances of a win here. A 7-inning, 2-runs-or-less outing is likely. The chances that the Toronto lineup, which is cooling off but is still generally capable, will be able to extend a comfortable lead against spot starter Julian Tavarez and the Boston setup relievers is high.

Current lines give Boston a better than 30% chance of winning, which is dubious considering how poorly they have done recently in games where they were at far less of a pitching disadvantage.


Philadelphia 58% - Washington starter Pedro Astacio pitched a surprising and impressive shutout in his last home start, but that was very likely an anomaly. All of his other 10 starts this year have been mediocre at best, and he is likely to have another one here. He will struggle every inning to keep the productive Philadelphia lineup at bay. On the other side, Randy Wolf will have a less difficult challenge with the Washington lineup. These small edges give Philadelphia a decent overall edge, and value as a modestly-priced favorite.