Cubs 61% - Pirates' starter Paul Maholm has been reasonably effective at home, but his WHIP to ERA ratio suggests he has gotten some good bounces. Derrek Lee's return will likely give the Cubs a good boost; even if he's not 100% back in terms of timing, he seems pretty close.

Carlos Zambrano is likely to have another quality start. He is pitching solidly and consistently right now, and that is damaging to Pittsburgh's chances. The Pirates seem to benefit greatly when they face a sub-par starter, but wilt when up against a capable one. After lighting up Angel Guzman yesterday, facing Zambrano will be a completely different ballgame.


Cleveland 67% - Since Gustavo Chacin has returned from the DL, he has shown nothing to suggest he is ready to consistently get hitters out; his minor league rehab starts were poor and his first start back in the majors was a disaster. Facing the strong and surging Cleveland lineup here is likely to only compound his struggles.

On the other side, C.C. Sabathia has been pitching very well, although for this game he will be off of a season-high pitch count of 122. This is likely to affect him, although it is not clear to what degree. Toronto hits lefties well in general, and they are likely to get to Sabathia at least a modest amount.

Cleveland's bullpen is coming together a bit now, which boosts their chances.

The combination of factors for this game gives Cleveland a big statistical edge, but with a very low confidence number, due to the relatively high degree of uncertainty associated with both starters. In other words, it is likely that Chacin will be bad, but it is unclear just how bad, and it is likely that Sabathia will be good, but is it unclear just how good.


Washington 44% - Washington starter Tony Armas is the definition of shaky; he has had career-long problems with his command of his above-average stuff. Still, he often does deliver a reasonable performance. He has faced Philadelphia four times this season, and each start has been similar - mediocre but decent, between 5-7 innings and 3 or 4 runs. If he has a similar performance here, which is likely, Washington will have value as a big home underdog.

Philadelphia ran into a tough Mets team in their last series, and they do usually play well against lesser teams on the road. Brett Myers was dominant in his last start, and he could be so again here. But he has faced Washington 3 times this season, and was hit hard twice. His likelihood of a dominant start is not high enough to offset his likelihood of a mediocre one, giving Washington value as a big home dog.


Atlanta 54% - Atlanta starter Tim Hudson has begun to pitch better of late, and the Atlanta offense, which always has explosive potential, is coming alive again with both Joneses back in the lineup.

This game has a low confidence number, because so much is dependant on the likely performance of Hudson, and so much is dependant on the likely duration of Jason Schmidt’s outing, both of which have high degrees of uncertainty.

There is an extreme disparity in edge between Schmidt and the Giants' bullpen. When Schmidt is in, San Francisco has an edge because he neutralizes Atlanta's offensive explosiveness, but when the Giants' bullpen comes in Atlanta will have a major edge, and will be capable of putting up many runs in few innings.

Atlanta is always vulnerable because of their shaky bullpen, but because of their lineup, they will actually have an advantage the closer the game is, and the longer the bullpens are involved.


Florida 51% - The Mark Mulder disaster train is making another stop in this game. It's not clear what the cause is behind his problems with location and velocity. He was having quality starts only 3 months ago, so it is likely that at some point either this year or in future seasons he will again be an effective starter.

Still, considering where he is right now, and the state of the St. Louis lineup and bullpen, St. Louis is a dubious favorite here. St. Louis surrounds Pujols and Rolen with a sub-par slate of hitters, and if the opposing team can avoid giving up too many multi-run HRs to those two, St. Louis has an offense that can be easily held down.

Florida starter Scott Olsen will be vulnerable in this game, but he is likely to have a 6-inning, 3-run type of outing, which would put Florida in a good position to win.