1. #1
    SBRforum Staff
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    Mets -135

    Mets -135

    This game has similar elements to the other games in this series and the one before it against St. Louis (including the game John Maine started), which have given the Mets value as moderately priced favorites, and rewarded their backers accordingly.
    The basic idea is that the Mets have a strong lineup and bullpen, and as such, when they are at home, they do not need a major edge in starting pitching in order to have a major statistical edge to win overall.

    In this game, however, they probably do enjoy a good-sized edge in starting pitching anyway. Mets' starter John Maine has been very good of late, and particularly at home. Even his last start against St. Louis, in which his stat line looks bad (but which the Mets won anyway), was not as bad as it seemed. He was the victim of 2 home runs by Albert Pujols, which resulted in all 7 runs against him.

    While Maine is probably not as good as he might seem to be based on his recent outings, he is still a better deal than Jamie Moyer is right now. It's true that Moyer is a crafty veteran who knows how to maximize his limited stuff, get guys out, and keep his team in the ballgame. But he still doesn't bring much to the table anymore, and a few runs are always just around the corner against him when he goes up against strong lineups like the Mets'.

    Moyer also was ideally suited to pitching at Safeco, and specialized in winning there; his numbers in other ballparks have been far inferior over the past few years. Shea Stadium might be a generally pitcher-friendly park, but that will be more than made up for by the Mets' very pitcher-unfriendly lineup.

    But even if Moyer and Maine have similar outings, which would not be a surprise, the Mets will still have a big advantage overall. Their depth and talent in the bullpen, in tandem with their depth and talent up and down the lineup, gives them a big edge in the later innings at home, as their recent series attest to. They are 12-2 at home in August, and it hasn’t had much to do with their starting pitching. As long as they send out someone who can give a mediocre performance, they have a big advantage.

    Philadelphia does have a quality lineup, and they could hit Maine hard, and Moyer and the Philadelphia bullpen could manage to hold the Mets down enough to pull out a win. But the relatively small likelihood of that happening gives value to the side of the Mets as a moderately-priced favorite.

    Play: NY Mets -135

    Note: One caveat for this game involves the lineups. Day games after night games often bring lineup surprises, especially late in the year, and especially when a team is as far ahead in the standings as the Mets are. Mets manager Willie Randolph has openly expressed his intention to give his starting players breaks as the year grinds on to keep them in good shape for the playoffs. The Mets do have some quality depth, but depending on who is playing, our edge for this game will be adjusted. We only made a moderate initial bet on the Mets, and will finish it off in full after the lineups are announced, if we see that the Mets are fielding a team reasonably close to their usual level of strength.

    By: Ganchrow Sports
    Last edited by SBRforum Staff; 08-27-06 at 10:29 AM.

  2. #2
    bigboydan
    bigboydan's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-10-05
    Posts: 55,425

    it's hard to bet against the phillies with that umpire stat on Angel Hernandez.

    i'd probly take a shot with the phillies in this game myself.

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