There are several reasons we get on this play tonight with the first half line giving us a full run advantage as the total for the game is 9 and the first half line is 5.
Even the oddsmakers have taken into consideration the current form of these to pitchers listing this game at 9 as the overall numbers would suggest a higher total. Harang comes into this game at 1 – 1 with an ERA of 5.50 for his L3 starts and Morris comes in at 0 – 2 with 4.19 ERA in his L3.
The public will look at the overall numbers and the 9 and will be all over the over. What the public is not considering is the fact that Harang pitches at the Great American Ball Park, one of the truest hitters ball parks in the majors and where his ERA jumps 2 full points from a road ERA of 2.76 to a home ERA 4.77. Harang’s road numbers are as good as anyone’s as he is 7 – 5 posting that 2.76 ERA but the number I like are his hits to innings pitched. Harang has pitched 91.1 road innings and given up 90 hits and only 5 home runs.
Opposing Harang the Giants send Matt Morris to the mound who overall numbers are also inflated with a horrible start to the season. In Morris L5 games he has given up runs of 5, 1, 3, 5, and 0, however, in the first five innings of those games he has given up only 3, 2, 1, 1, and 0 runs. We look for a low scoring game though the first five innings and since we don’t trust either bull pen we take the first five.
Take the UNDER 5 in the first Half
Last edited by SBRforum Staff; 08-25-06 at 03:46 PM.
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