Mets 56% - The Mets again rate an edge over St. Louis despite having little or no edge in starting pitching. The reasons are the same, namely, their strong offense going up against the shaky bullpen of St. Louis. When the bullpens get involved, the Mets will have an easier time than St. Louis maintaining any lead they have, or coming back from behind. Dave Williams is no prize, but he is capable of having a reasonable start more than once in a while.
If Williams gets hit hard and Marquis has a quality start, of course St. Louis will have a huge advantage, and that is a reasonably likely scenario. But anything other than that tips the scales strongly in favor of the Mets.
Tampa Bay 47% - Tampa Bay has won three straight over Texas as a home underdog, and they will have value tonight as a home dog yet again. Both on the year and in August they are only barely over .500 at home, yet their return is around 20%. Seth McClung has added depth and quality to their bullpen, which is now starting to get the job done holding leads.
Neither starting pitcher inspires confidence. Robinson Tejeda has problems with wildness, and if Texas does have a starting pitching edge in this game, it's not by much.
A Texas blowout is possible, but if that doesn't happen, Tampa Bay will have a solid chance to win.