[SBRforum Staff]

Offense Likely In Philly Today

By: Ganchrow Sports

An Astacio-Wolf matchup in Philadelphia today between the Nats and Phils should yield runs, runs and more runs.

It's always treacherous to take an over in a day game after a night game before seeing the lineup announcements. There can be surprises involving big hitters getting a day off. Still, for this game, assuming at least most of the usual starters will be in the respective lineups, there will be value with the over.

Both starters today are coming off of surprisingly good outings, but they are going to be more vulnerable today.

Washington starter Pedro Astacio has been very mediocre all season (except for his last game), and what makes it worse here is that all of his starts this year have come at night against relatively weak offenses in very hitter-friendly parks. Facing the Philadelphia lineup in the daytime at Citizens Bank will present a far greater challenge than anything he has dealt with this season.

On the other side, Washington has a lineup with some pop. Randy Wolf's last start did come at home against the powerful Mets' offense, and he was admittedly effective. But he is still very likely to yield at least a few runs to Washington at some point today.

In general, both teams' offenses are stronger than the opposing team's pitching, and the runs should add up relatively easily, coming early and/or late. Getting to 10 should not be particularly difficult. There is value with the over, as it is significantly better than a 50% proposition.

Play: WASHINGTON/PHILADELPHIA OVER 10 (-110)

[Illusion]

I will pass. I do not trust Washington's offense and both pitchers have been pitching well.