[cocknocker]

I want to start off by welcoming everyone to my season long the for MLB. The purpose of this thread is to help one another beat the books with some sound research, discussion and prognostications. I would like to keep the focus of this thread solely on the game of baseball. I encourage input from all as it is best if the ideas of all are explained and offered rather than just offered. It might be a wise thing to have a bit input from everyne as due to the nature of the game, I may make only 5 actual game wagers in one whole week. I don't take much stock in wagering on baseball games every single day as bullpens are horrid in MLB and I cannot take the heartburn involved with losing a game in the 9th inning when my team led by 3 runs before the bastard reliever entered the game, and walks the first two batters he faces.

However, I will play mostly 4.5 or 5 inning wagers and totals for the first halves of baseball games. I believe that those are the innings that you will get the most favorable results, and also get just the talent of the starter working for you, as well as the eagerness by his team to get him some early run support. I also like to play team totals for the first halves of baseball games as well.

In a few days I will reveal what I do with baseball wagering, a home-made subset, that is a season long style of wagering. I call them CK Crumbs Plays, or Crumbs for short. In order to do it I encourage each person who plans on doing it to get $4000.00 together and a TOTALLY seperate account to use solely for this style of wagering. If you can't afford 4 dimes then 2 dimes will also work. You will just have to do your units in $50.00 wagers to start off and then build your way up to $100.00 wagers. Crumbs average more than 300 wins a year more than losses with live betting college playoffs and MLB Playoffs incuded. The money in the account for this wagering style is to not be touched until the end of the World Series.

Your sportsbook must offer proposition wagers that inlcude first inning props. One that also has live betting for televised baseball games is even better. One such book that has both is Betus. Greek.com also has the prop but not live wagering on baseball games that are not playoff games.

For the next couple of weeks I will be digging into the teams and their synergies. What matchups and situations I will be on the lookout for and so on. I do not wager on preseason baseball games.

[Jimbo42]

Yesssss! This is what I have been waiting for! The bankroll is nearly complete sir! You've got my full attention......

[CashMoney]

Just what I was waiting for. My $4K is set aside.

[Dexter]

pitching is my passion, as is baseball in general. i was a pitcher growing up, and know every pitcher inside and out in baseball. i'll be sure to pass along my daily selections as well - which will include totals, run lines, and small favorites of up to -140 on the moneyline.

i love the nfl and nba, but nothing compares to mlb.

[cocknocker]

Yesh! Baseball is my favorite spot to wager on by far!

[cocknocker]

Division Winner Props that I am taking:

D-Rays +554 AL East
Yankees -115 AL East (Of course! They may end up being what we thought they were)


White Sox+405 AL Central (Why not?)
Twins +245 AL Central

Field +245 NL East ( The Marlins can't be counted out that easily)
Phillies +165 NL East

Dodgers+140 NL West
Giants+165 NL West (They have the pitching to beat anybody on any given day)

Cardinals +385 NL Central (My favorite)

[Rellik]

Money is in the account. Let's roll everybody.!!!

[cocknocker]

Pitchers and good tendencies:

Tim Lincecum: Take the first five nnings under the team total for the oppositon

Cliff Lee: The same as above

Gio Gonzalez/Josh Outman: Play on them first five innings at home in day games

Erik Bedard: Play on as the pitcher starting an opening game of a road series against AL East opponent.

Vicente Padilla: Play on any road game (11-3 last year)

Kevin Millwood: Play the over for the first five innings

Joel Piniero- Play on only against the Reds

Kyle Lohse: Over first five innings

Rich Harden: Under the team total for the opposition first 5 innings

Jesse Litsch: Take the over game and first five innings when pitching against Baltimore

Roy Halladay: Take the under for the opposing team's team total for first 5 innings

CC Sabathia: Take the over for first five innings. #1 starter will get support but is mediocre in AL

Dan Haren: OMG, take the under the team total for the first five innings for the opposition

Brandon Webb: Same as above

Jeff Suppan: Take the over when pitching on road indoors or at night at home

Fausto Carmona: Take the over first five innings. He allows a lot of baserunners with no pick off move

Carl Pavano: Take the over first 5 innings until the wheels fall off

Andrew Miller: Take the Mets! Also take the over for the game. Let it simmer awhile.

John Maine: If it's Florida, see above; take the under team total first five innings for opposition on road

Oliver Perez: Will crash and burn this year, take the opposition moneyline first 5 innings on road

Felix Hernandez: Take the under the team total for the opposition for the fist five innings

Edison Voloquez: Take the under the team total for the opposition first five innings until All Star break also take the first five innings under the total on road/home day games

Jason Marquis: Take the over first five innings.

Carlos Zambrano: Take the over for his team's total first 5 innings and over for first five innings. He can swing the bat really well and is a good contributor offensively. Take the under for the opposing team's total first five innings at home in day games after May

Jake Peavy: Take the under the team total for opposition in home day games. Always.

Shawn Hill: Take the over for the first five innings on road and for game

John Lannan: Play the under for the opposing team total for first five innings especially if team has lost 4 or more straight and he is at home in a day game

Jeremy Guthrie: Play on against the Blue jays, also take their team total to go under first 5 innings

Tom Gorzelanny: Take the over for first five innings, and for game no questions asked

Paul Maholm: Take the under for the opposing team's total first five innings, under for game against Padres.

Wandy Rodriguez: Take over the strikeout prop for his home games

Mike Hampton: Home run waiting to happen. Can hit a little bit too. Over first five innings, and opposition's team total for game until further notice. He'll leave some runners on as he leaves.

Francisco Liriano: Take his side when at home and under the team total for the first five innings for opposition.

Glen Perkins: Take the over when he faces a right hand power team on the road. Play on vs. KC

Kevin Slowey: Take the walks vs. strikeouts prop. Only 34 walks all of last year. He's that good.

Justin Verlander: Play against him vs good hitting right hand heavy teams for entire game. The Tigers have a horrid bullpen that will help out for the over in these situations.

Dontrelle Willis: Take the over for the first five innings and the game until further notice.

Josh Beckett: For some reason he always has a lot of run support at home. Take the over at home. Good for the strikeouts/walks prop.

Jon Lester: Take the under for the opposing side team total for the first five innings on road.

Brad Penny: Take the over for the opposing sides team total for first five innings. Base runners galore.

Gil Meche: Notorious 2nd half of the season pitcher. Ride him after the All Star break to hold down the opposition from scoring much early in the game.

Brian Bannister:Take the over for the entire game when he pitches at night on road.

Joba Chamberlain: Take the under for the opposing team's total for first five innings in day home games. Also take the side (Yanks)when he pitches at home for first five innings.

Andy Pettite: Take the over the team total first 5 innings when he pitches against Boston anywhere.


So there is my list of pitchers and how I will be using them. Of course there are tons that I didn't mention, but this will be my referral card during the year, so so what? It's my thread and I am well off so I really don't care!

[cocknocker]

Next up, money pitchers! The guys who perform with the heavy chalk on the line.

[pho3nix32]

i know nothing about MLB, so i guess you guys will be my guide

[joanapoker]

CK,

I also don't know sh*t about baseball, first inning props, pitchers etc...nothing! So I'll make for time to time some questions that most of u here will find very stupid!
I've set aside the 4K (euros ) and I will try to make every single bet that u post here.

First of all,
does anyone knows if bet365 takes this kind of bets (first inning props, live baseball bets...)??
thx

[Killer Chihuahua]

Thank GOD for baseball season.............Time to make some real money at last!!! I also like to see who is catching (calling the game) to go along with the pitchers.

[cocknocker]

When the heavy vigorish is on the line there's nothing worse than to have a guy give a bad pitching performance. I make it a habit to go against ANY line that is over -150 and these numbers will support why I do it. Heavy vigorish is anything over -140 or -150, which is the mark I like to top off at if it can be helped:

Josh Beckett-This guy killed your pockets last year with big money on the line 0-9 -150 or more

Brandon Backe-This guy was 3-0 s a +190 or more pitcher last year!

Nick Blackburn 0-2 with lines over -150, however with even money you'll get even results

Joba Chamberlain 0-2 with lines of -150 or more

John Danks 0-5 with th big money on his shoulders

Zach Duke- 4-0 with big money against him +160 and over

Armando Galarraga- 0-3 with the big money including two losses at -200 or more

Luke Hochevar- 2-0 with +190 or more

John Lackey-0-2 -150 and over

Cliff Lee 0-3 -150 or over

Francisco Liriano 0-3 -200 or more (Don't do it!)

Braden Looper 0-2 with -185 or more

Shaun Marcum 2-3 with -150 or more

Daisuke Matsuzaka-0-3 with -150 or more

Brian Moehler 3-0 with -150 or more ( Goody goody)

Manny Parra- 0-3 with -150 or more

Glen Perkins-2-2 with -150 or more

CC. Sabathia- 0-5 with -150 or more in American League

Ben Sheets 0-4 with -150 or more on him

Jerrod Washburn 3-0 +150 or more

Brandon Webb-0-5 with -150 or more (Surprise!)

Jake Westbrook 0-1 with -150 or more

Scott Baker 0-3 with -150 or more

Erik Bedard 0-2 with a -170 and a -200 stinger

Jason Bergmann 2-0 with +150 or more including a +220 cash day

Joe Blanton 1-5 as a -150 or more favorite

Dallas Braden 2-0 as a +150 underdog including one +205 casher

Clay Buchholz 0-2 as a -150 or more favorite with one loss of -220

AJ Burnett 0-2 as -150 or more

Paul Byrd 1-1 one win as a +190, one loss as a -200

Jorge Campillo: 1-1 one -235 loss (ouch) one-155 win

Kyle Davies: 2-0 as a +150 or more dog with a +200 and a +245 payday!

Ryan Dempster 0-3 as a -150 fav, and get this losses of -170, -205, -215

Justin Duchscherer:- 0-2 as a -150 or more fav with ugly -175 and -185 losses

Jeff Francis: 2-2 all over the place -255 & -225 losses and +180 and +155 wins

Roy Halladay: 1-5 as a favorite over -150 (Yes it's true)

Mike Hampton 2-0 as a +150 or more favorite with wins of +250 and +255

Ubaldo Jiminez 0-2 as a fav of -150 or more 1-0 as a dog of +150 or more

Jeff Karstens 2-0 as a dog of +150 or more with wins of +195 and +205

Ian Kennedy 0-2 as a favorite of -150 or more

Aaron Laffey 0-3 as a favorite of -150 or more

Jon Lester 0-2 as a fav of over -150 or more

Ted Lilly 0-3 as favorite of oer -150 including a -225 loss

Derek Lowe 0-5 as a favorite of over -150

Jason Marquis 1-4 as a favorite of over -150 including -220 & -260 losses

Gil Meche (MR MONEY) 4-1 as a +150 or more dog with +190, +170 & +180 wins

Brett Myers 0-4 as afavorite of over -150 with -270 and -210 losses

Roy Oswalt: 0-3 as a -140 or more favorite

Jake Peavy 0-6 as a -140 or more favorite

Tim Redding*** 7-0 +135 or more, 4-0 +180 or more

Johan Santana*** 0-5 as -145 or more including a -290 stinger

Joe Saunders 0-3 as a -140 or more including a -250 job

James Shields 0-3 as a -140 or more favorite

Kevin Slowey 0-2 as a favorite of -140 or more

Javier Vazquez 0-3 as a favorite of -140 or more

Edison Voloquez 0-3 as a favorite of -140 or more

Tim Wakefield 0-3 as a favorite of -145 or more

Carlos Zambrano*** 0-7 as a favorite of -140 or more

Cha Seung Baek*** 4-0 as a dog of +150 or more

Brian Bannister 2-0 as a dog of +150 or more

Miguel Batista 2-0 as a dog of +150 or more

Chad Billingsley*** 0-5 as a favorite of -140 or more

Mark Beuhrle 0-4 as a favorite of -140 or more

Fausto Carmona 0-5 as a favorite of -140 or more

Aaron Cook 0-5 as a favorite of over -170 including -245, -235 losses

John Garland 1-4 as a favorite of -145 or more

Cole Hamels***0-9 as a favorite of -140 or more losses of -230(2X),-220,-210,-300,-190

Dan Haren 0-4 as a favorite of -140 or more

Felix Hernandez 0-5 as a favorite of -140 or more

Randy Johnson 0-6 as a favorite of -145 or more

Scott Kazmir 0-2 as a favorite of -160 or more

Hiroki Kuroda 0-4 as a favorite of -145 or more

Tim Lincecum 0-4 as a favorite of -145 or more

Kyle Lohse 0-3 as a favorite of -145 or more

John Maine 0-3 as a favorite of over -150 including a -235 job

Kevin Millwood 3-0 as a dog of +150 or more

Ricky Nolasco 5-0 as a dog of -150 or more

Michael Pelfrey 0-4 as a favorite of -150 or more

Oliver Perez 0-6 as a faovorite of -150 or more

Andy Pettitte 0-9 as a favorite of -145 or more OUCH

JoJo Reyes 0-2 as a favorite of more than -150, but 1-0 as a dog of +230

Jonathan Sanchez 3-0 as a dog of +150 or more

Ervin Santana 0-7 as a favorite of more than -150

Carlos Silva 2-1 as a dog of +150 or more

Andy Sonnanstine 2-0 as a dog of +150 or more

Justin Verlander 0-9 as a favorite of -150 or more

Chris Volstad 3-0 as a dog of +145 or more

Jered Weaver 0-6 as a favorite of -150 or more 2-0 as a dog of +150 or more

Randy Wolf 3-0 as a dog of +140 or more

And that's it folks.






















I'll be back hroughout the day checking out the money pitchers

[cocknocker]

Thank GOD for baseball season.............Time to make some real money at last!!! I also like to see who is catching (calling the game) to go along with the pitchers.

Shoot us a list of the best pitcher/catcher combos for the thread!.

[solobass]

pitching is my passion, as is baseball in general. i was a pitcher growing up, and know every pitcher inside and out in baseball. i'll be sure to pass along my daily selections as well - which will include totals, run lines, and small favorites of up to -140 on the moneyline.

i love the nfl and nba, but nothing compares to mlb.

amen to that brother, i was a pitcher as well. now there is the game within the game within another game within something else entirely. all you need is the dodgers to move back to brooklyn!

i have been working on my databases as well and plan on posting some spring training picks here in the next coming days. did anyone bet on any futures for the WBC?

[Killer Chihuahua]

Shoot us a list of the best pitcher/catcher combos for the thread!.

I will work on that for sure!

[solobass]

today tigers +105 fun money.....both teams have players out for the WBC. good chance to see some up and comers today.

[Dexter]

love the pitching writeups - great stuff.

again, i like to play the under in games were both pitchers are coming off of 115+ pitch perfomances. guys like sabathia, lincecum etc should likely be filtered out since they have freakish arms that can deal with high pitch counts.

[shoebox]

Hell Yess!!
Baseball is by far the best game to cap for me anyway.
I think I may start a season long thread of my plays, no dis-respect ck baseball is my thing..

[fusion]

great stuff CK. i m totally new to baseball but i am on board following your lead

[Dexter]

the key in baseball is to really focus on playing teams with good bullpens - as ck alluded to, pens can blow the wins of a good starter in a heartbeat. the league is so watered down, that talent runs very thin in most all pens.

thats what im going to focus on in the first few weeks of the season - try and find a few teams with solid pens and focus on them on the run line when away.

[The_Kid]

Pitchers and good tendencies:
Dontrelle Willis: Take the over for the first five innings and the game until further notice.

That's so true. I like the ending "until further notice." Even when he was sent back down to the minors and called back up, he didn't do much but give up more runs, walks, and hits.

[Dexter]

yeah, the d-train is a mess

[alukk]

what i can see is that this is a great researching work. best of luck in ur mlb season, and as u convinced me i will also make a 8k account just for ur picks.
alsoi will have another accoutn for my pick.

[Dexter]

thats some lethal info in post #13

[cnleaf]

I have NOT done anything in baseball. All I need is a good lesson here. Everyone please shoot me one anytime. thank you in advance.

[InTheHole]

Nice Job CK

[solobass]

alright, tigers cash yesterday pounding CC. dontrelle willis cannot find the strikezone with a map and compass right now, and he knows any decent hitter will crush his stuff. psychologically he is done and he is messing with his mechanics too much. that being said if he does head north with the tigers hit the over for the first 5!

[Dexter]

brett myers has lost like 30lbs and is playing for a contract - he may have a solid year.

[cocknocker]

Brett Myers may be alright, but CC is going to tank it this year and i can't wait to get my hands on some of that +180 money. I like to wager against any line that is -150. I am SURE that he will fit into that criteria ALL season long. I have been very busy studying the NCAA. I will continue to update the list of pitchers after i get back from Reno. But in the mean and between, I would lie to see if someone could come up with a ranking of leadoff hitters as i think that this information will be of good use this year.

[diogee]

Good stuff CK...how long have you used/tracked these "Crumbs". Any backtesting...I assume this is the 1st inning system I read about a month ago. Was last year an anomaly with how well it did and why would the books not make an adjustment?

All the best this season...hope it treats you well.

[ICEMAN888]

CK,

I also don't know sh*t about baseball, first inning props, pitchers etc...nothing! So I'll make for time to time some questions that most of u here will find very stupid!
I've set aside the 4K (euros ) and I will try to make every single bet that u post here.

First of all,
does anyone knows if bet365 takes this kind of bets (first inning props, live baseball bets...)??
thx

Bet365 has perhaps the best live betting I have seen. If anyone knows a better live betting site please let me know. However, Bet365 will pick and choose the games they will allow for live betting. The type of live betting I have seen for inning betting includes run scored or no run scored both teams. I don't know if they allow for all the prop bets that CK wants you to bet though.

[ICEMAN888]

Ranking Leadoff Hitters


1. Ichiro Suzuki, Mariners (2008: .310, 103 R, 43 SB, 6 HR, .361 OBP) - Perhaps the best leadoff hitter in the game but the top 3 are all very close. In the past 8 seasons playing in the MLB he has always posted 100+ runs scored, 200+ hits, 30+ steals, .300+ average and .350+ OBP. Even though he doesn't walk much he always finishes in the top 10 in times on base every year.

2. Jose Reyes, Mets (2008: .268, 101 R, 38 SB, 33 HR, .374 OBP) - On the verge of being the best leadoff hitter and that is a lot for a Yankee fan like me to say (hate the Mets). Every time he is on base you will see fear in the eyes of the pitcher and catchers. Highlights for 2008 include 113 runs scored, 204 hits, 327 total bases, 19 triples, 56 stolen bases, 271 times on base. He is still very young and his talent level is rising, not diminishing. He gives off the image of a weakling run scoring leadoff guy, but this guy also has some power and may hit over 20 HR this year.

3. Grady Sizemore, Indians (2008: .268, 101 R, 38 SB, 33 HR, .374 OBP) - This guy can do it all. His OBP of .374 is superb for a leadoff hitter and he has power (33 HR). He can even drive in runs (90 RBI). He had 38 steals last season and also averaged 30 doubles the last 4 seasons. His biggest knock is his .268 average last season and also he may not be a leadoff for long.

4. Jimmy Rollins, Phillies (2008: .277, 76 R, 47 SB, 11 HR, .349 OBP) - His 2008 numbers pale in comparison to his 2007 MVP numbers but that doesn't mean he still is not one of the best leadoff hitters in the game. He had a very pedestrian .349 OBP but when he got on base he took advantage of it by stealing 47 bases in 50 attempts. Also he does not strike out much (career low 55 KO's last year). He can still get the extra base hits and will not crumble when there are men in scoring position like Ichiro always seems to do. He is on the decline, but still a threat.

5. Nate McLouth, Pirates (2008: .276, 113 R, 23 SB, 26 HR, .356 OBP)- Big time up and comer. Great stats in 2008 and he is also on the rise . He led the league with 46 doubles. How long will this guy be a leadoff hitter? Well if he can hit over 30 bombs this season it probably won't be long until he moves to the #3 slot. Also, this guy had a .714 average with the bases loaded. Not something you see all the time with a leadoff hitter.

6. Curtis Granderson, Tigers (2008: .280, 112 R, 12 SB, 22 HR, .365 OBP) - As a leadoff hitter he went down a bit in 2008. He only had 12 SBs, which was down from 26 the year before. But look at the people who are batting behind him and you know you have to put him high on this list. He had a .280 average, which is not bad, but his .365 OBP is exceptional. His biggest problem is he strikes out too much. 111 whiffs last year. I still think he is one of the better leadoff hitters in the game and he should be able to surpass last years stats.

7. Brian Roberts, Orioles - This guy is a big time spark plug on a really lousy team. Check out these stats: 2008: .296, 107 R, 40 SB, 9 HR, .378 OBP. On top of those stats he knows how to draw a walk.

8. Chone, Figgins, Angels (2008: .276, 72 R, 34 SB, 1 HR, .367 OBP) - When this guy actually plays he is awesome. He can get on base (.367 OBP), he can steal bases (34 SB), He scores runs (72 R). His problem is he is becoming a fragile player and may never be able to play over 150 games again in his career. However, when he is in there he is damn good.

9. Jacob Ellsbury, Red Sox (2008: .280, 98 R, 50 SB, 9 HR, .336 OBP - This guy has a lot of heart and he plays the game right. He has great stats for a leadoff hitter. He should only rise on this list in the next year and years after that.

10. Ian Kinsler, Rangers (2008: .319, 102 R, 26 SB, 18 HR, .375 OBP) - Another spark plug that plays on a team that doesn't do much but hit. He had some impressive leadoff numbers last year He should have many good years ahead of him putting up stats cuz what else can he do in Texas except pad his stats.

11. Johnny Damon, Yankees (2008: .303, 95 R, 29 SB, 17 HR, .375 OBP)- Johnny has clearly lost a step but that does not mean he is not still an awesome leadoff hitter. Also, next year he is a free agent so he will be overly enthusiastic to put up big numbers this year. Last year he had a very respectable .375 OBP and he stole 29 bags. Look for at least 1 more great season from Damon with similar stats to last year.

12. Rafael Furcal, Dodgers (2008: .357, 34 R, 8 SB, 5 HR, .439 OBP)When he is healthy is the prototypical leadoff man. He gets on base at close to a .350+ clip every year. He usually scores more then 100 runs and he almost always steals around 25 to 30 bases per year. Question is will he remain healthy. He's is 34 years old and his production will definitely tail off but now that the Dodgers have Manny Ramirez you should see some nice numbers from Rafael.

13. Randy Winn, Giants (2008: .306, 84 R, 25 SB, 10 HR, .363 OBP) He is Mr. Consistency. Almost always batting right around .300 with right around a .360 OBP, scoring right around 90 runs and 25 Stolen Bases.

14. Alfonso Soriano, Cubs (2008: .280, 76 R, 19 SB, 29 HR, .344 OBP) He bats leadoff for the Cubs but is he really a leadoff man? You cannot dispute his production over the years.

15. Willy Taveras, Reds ( 2008: .251, 64 R, 68 SB, 1 HR, .308 OBP) He ranks as high as he does because of one number 68 Stolen Bases. His .251 Batting Average and his .308 OBP are pretty miserable. You have to think he will improve those numbers. However, once he gets on base he will cause problems for the Pitcher and Catcher. He should be able to score 100+ runs if he can just raise his OBP to .350.



This is all i have for now. I will append to this list later on.

[Dexter]

Brett Myers may be alright, but CC is going to tank it this year and i can't wait to get my hands on some of that +180 money. I like to wager against any line that is -150. I am SURE that he will fit into that criteria ALL season long. I have been very busy studying the NCAA. I will continue to update the list of pitchers after i get back from Reno. But in the mean and between, I would lie to see if someone could come up with a ranking of leadoff hitters as i think that this information will be of good use this year.

-150? sabbathia is going to be -240ish on most all home games, and prob -180ish on the road. (with teams like boston, drays, angels as the exception)


**This quote by Greg Rybarczyk of Hit Tracker, published in the Hardball Times Annual, backs up the theory: "Citi Field, the new ballpark for the New York Mets, is poised to become MLB's new Grand Canyon. City Field is a vast, cool weather, sea-level stadium, and those factors will have a hugely negative impact on home runs."

[rowdy08]

Looks like this thread is about to come alive, can't wait. Idon't know the first thing about betting baseball but looks like I'm about to learn. Thanks CK and all others.