MLB 2nd Half Strategy - +318u last 3 years

[ledjend]

TODAY 9/5


- CHC A bet (vs Ari) - currently -220, play Money Line (220 est)
- StL B bet - currently -148, play Money Line (405 est)
- NYM A bet - currently -148, play Money Line (710 est)
- KC A bet - currently -155, play Money Line (710 est)


Possibly one more play depending on the outcome of the first Cin/Mil game.

Good luck!


*IMPORTANT: Be sure to monitor the lines on Covers.com and wait as long as you can to place your action. Closing lines of -130 or lower should be made on the Run Line/Alternate Run Line.

[ledjend]

YESTERDAY 9/5

Flat Betting (Entered day 141-91, -21.11 u)

- KC +1.5 at -240 - Loss
- CHC at -220 - Win
- StL at -152 - Win
- NYM +1.5 at -330 - Win


3-1, +.6 u on day

Year to date only -199 lines and below - 97-69, -13.66 u
Year to date only -200 lines and above - 47-23, -6.85 u

Year to date combined - 144-92, -20.51 u



Chase (Entered day 140-7, +7 u)

- KC A bet - Loss
- CHC A bet (vs Ari) - Win
- StL B bet - Win
- NYM A bet - Win


Year to date - 143-7, +10 u


Important Note: As of 7/23, lines of -200 or greater I have not been flat betting - but I continue to keep records for both: 1) for those of you who still are, and 2) to see whether that decision will turn out to be profitable or not.

[ledjend]

TODAY 9/6


- KC B bet - currently -201, play Money Line (210 est)
- Hou A bet - currently -230, play Money Line (210 est)
- Tex A bet (vs LAA) - currently +114, play Run Line +1.5 at -190 (335 est)


Good luck!


*IMPORTANT: Be sure to monitor the lines on Covers.com and wait as long as you can to place your action. Closing lines of -130 or lower should be made on the Run Line/Alternate Run Line.

[stacks on deck]

penetrating cueto

[ledjend]

penetrating cueto

Yea he's in a funk - glad he wasn't our C bet.

[ledjend]

YESTERDAY 9/6

Flat Betting (Entered day 144-92, -20.51 u)

- KC at -202 - Loss
- Tex +1.5 at -180 - Loss
- Hou at -239 - Win


1-2, -2.82 u on day

Year to date only -199 lines and below - 97-70, -15.46 u
Year to date only -200 lines and above - 48-24, -7.87 u

Year to date combined - 145-94, -23.33 u



Chase (Entered day 143-7, +10 u)

- KC B bet - Loss
- Tex A bet (vs LAA) - Loss
- Hou A bet - Win


Year to date - 144-7, +11 u


Important Note: As of 7/23, lines of -200 or greater I have not been flat betting - but I continue to keep records for both: 1) for those of you who still are, and 2) to see whether that decision will turn out to be profitable or not.

[ledjend]

TODAY 9/7


- NYM A bet - currently +165, play Run Line +1.5 at -145 (105 est)
- KC C bet - currently -181, play Money Line (810 est)
- LAD B bet (vs LAA) - currently -164, play Money Line (905 est)


Good luck!


*IMPORTANT: Be sure to monitor the lines on Covers.com and wait as long as you can to place your action. Closing lines of -130 or lower should be made on the Run Line/Alternate Run Line.

[Griffin]

I'm probably going to regret doing this, but please take this in the manner it's intended. Just some observations based on my own experience....

I see y'all struggling a bit here and I went through a phase with a system like this a while back. You've got a standard basic framework using the A-B-C betting routine and while I can't quite suss out the parameters you are using to generate picks, I can say that often in back testing these systems look great. The problem with them as I see it -- and this is just my opinion, your mileage may vary -- is that they simply force you into too many scenarios where you have to put up insane money on a single game. Baseball is truly a game of statistics and what we'd probably call a very large system. Viewed from afar it has some regularity and predictability in it. But you're always subject to bubbles and oddities that can ruin your day. If you can afford to lose a few C bets and build a D bet in, or even an E bet, you'll win a lot more -- but who the hell has that kind of money? In a system like this one, it only takes a few odd ducks to bury you.

I've found that rather then sourcing a smaller number of series and risking an overloaded chase on one or two games, that a useful strategy is to take advantage of the size of the baseball universe by making a large number of smaller bets, utilize a limited chase, and build in some sort of reset that takes you back to a manageable bet size on a regular basis.

I'm not going to tell you the nitty gritty details of how I pick games, but I think those elements I noted above are the key to building a true winning strategy. I cashed in on +110 units over about four weeks in Vegas this year (and I just got back to Vegas and I'm starting to round out the last four weeks of the season now). I bet smaller units; I started with an 80 unit bankroll for safety's sake, but never dipped into it beyond 40. I run $250 units and I'm up a little over $25,000 in profit.

It can be done, but you can't do it the way you've outlined it here, I think. Too much risk of just a few games running out the bankroll. Think about the 2400 regular season games that get played every year and find a way to milk a little bit out of a whole lot of them. If a few get sideways on you, no big deal. The rest keep working like they should.

http://griffin.mysbrforum.com/spreadsheet/

Stay thirsty my friends.

[keel44]

You see Griffin, your nailin' it at almost a 65% clip. Most people with systems, even mine, are trying to turn a profit without hitting that magical win percentage. I do believe it can be done in sports not other casino games.

[bob6199]

another person who comes in claiming to have a good system (which it might in the past), but yet again it fails. After seeing these "Systems" fail, it proves my point. Past results don't mean much to future ones. I was hoping this would be good and he was here to stay, but it's another bust system. I tried being optimistic in this thread...

[stacks on deck]

Tough having a c bet with ventura pitching.

[sportsbetter21]

Have to give him until the end of season and even if he turns 1 unit in the positive it's not a failure. I've seen some collassal failures in the past but at least he was able to consistently post plays and keep an accurate record.ehich is better than I can say for most

another person who comes in claiming to have a good system (which it might in the past), but yet again it fails. After seeing these "Systems" fail, it proves my point. Past results don't mean much to future ones. I was hoping this would be good and he was here to stay, but it's another bust system. I tried being optimistic in this thread...

[ledjend]

YESTERDAY 9/7

Flat Betting (Entered day 145-94, -23.33 u)

- KC at -190 - Loss
- NYM +1.5 at -120 - Win
- LAD at -165 - Win

2-1, +.1 u on day

Year to date only -199 lines and below - 99-71, -15.36 u
Year to date only -200 lines and above - 48-24, -7.87 u

Year to date combined - 147-95, -23.23 u



Chase (Entered day 144-7, +11 u)

- KC C bet - Loss...-240, -202, -190 = -28.78 (rounded to -29 units)
- NYM A bet - Win
- LAD B bet (vs LAA) - Win


Year to date - 146-8, -16 u


Important Note: As of 7/23, lines of -200 or greater I have not been flat betting - but I continue to keep records for both: 1) for those of you who still are, and 2) to see whether that decision will turn out to be profitable or not.

[ledjend]

TODAY 9/8


- Bal A bet - currently +147, play Run Line +1.5 at -135 (705 est)
- Was A bet - currently -108, play Alt Run Line +1.5 at -210 (705 est)
- TB A bet - currently -118, play Alt Run Line +1.5 at -245 (708 est)
- KC A bet - currently -170, play Money Line (810 est)
- Hou A bet - currently -102, play Run Line +1.5 at -230 (1005 est)


Good luck!


*IMPORTANT: Be sure to monitor the lines on Covers.com and wait as long as you can to place your action. Closing lines of -130 or lower should be made on the Run Line/Alternate Run Line.

[ledjend]

YESTERDAY 9/8

Flat Betting (Entered day 147-95, -23.23 u)

- Hou +1.5 at -230 - Loss
- Bal +1.5 at -135 - Win
- Was +1.5 at -210 - Win
- TB +1.5 at -245 - Win
- KC at -173 - Win

4-1, +1.7 u on day

Year to date only -199 lines and below - 101-71, -13.36 u
Year to date only -200 lines and above - 50-25, -8.17 u

Year to date combined - 151-96, -21.53 u



Chase (Entered day 146-8, -16 u)

- Hou A bet - Loss
- Bal A bet - Win
- Was A bet - Win
- TB A bet - Win
- KC A bet - Win


Year to date - 150-8, -12 u


Important Note: As of 7/23, lines of -200 or greater I have not been flat betting - but I continue to keep records for both: 1) for those of you who still are, and 2) to see whether that decision will turn out to be profitable or not.

[ledjend]

TODAY 9/9


- NYY A bet - currently -133, play Money Line (705 est)
- Was A bet - currently -104, play Alt Run Line +1.5 at -200 (705 est)
- SD A bet (vs Col) - currently -165, play Money Line (910 est)
- Hou B bet - currently -153, play Money Line (1005 est)


Good luck!


*IMPORTANT: Be sure to monitor the lines on Covers.com and wait as long as you can to place your action. Closing lines of -130 or lower should be made on the Run Line/Alternate Run Line.

[ledjend]

YESTERDAY 9/9

Flat Betting (Entered day 151-96, -21.53 u)

- Was +1.5 at -200 - Loss
- NYY at -134 - Loss
- SD at -168 - Win
- Hou at -153 - Win


2-2, -1.34 u on day

Year to date only -199 lines and below - 103-72, -12.70 u
Year to date only -200 lines and above - 50-26, -10.17 u

Year to date combined - 153-98, -22.87 u



Chase (Entered day 150-8, -12 u)

- Was A bet - Loss
- NYY A bet - Loss
- SD A bet (vs Col) - Win
- Hou B bet - Win


Year to date - 152-8, -10 u


Important Note: As of 7/23, lines of -200 or greater I have not been flat betting - but I continue to keep records for both: 1) for those of you who still are, and 2) to see whether that decision will turn out to be profitable or not.

[ledjend]

TODAY 9/10


- NYY B bet - currently +130, play Run Line +1.5 at -135 (705 est)
- Pit A bet - currently -172, play Money Line (705 est)
- CHC A bet - currently -250, play Money Line (705 est)
- NYM A bet - currently -144, play Money Line (710 est)


Good luck!


*IMPORTANT: Be sure to monitor the lines on Covers.com and wait as long as you can to place your action. Closing lines of -130 or lower should be made on the Run Line/Alternate Run Line.

[ledjend]

YESTERDAY 9/10

Flat Betting (Entered day 153-98, -22.87 u)

- Pit at -172 - Loss
- NYM +1.5 at -330 - Win


1-1, -.72 u on day

Year to date only -199 lines and below - 103-73, -14.42 u
Year to date only -200 lines and above - 51-26, -9.17 u

Year to date combined - 154-99, -23.59 u



Chase (Entered day 152-8, -10 u)

- Pit A bet - Loss
- NYM A bet - Win
- NYY B bet - PPD
- CHC A bet - PPD


Year to date - 153-8, -9 u


Important Note: As of 7/23, lines of -200 or greater I have not been flat betting - but I continue to keep records for both: 1) for those of you who still are, and 2) to see whether that decision will turn out to be profitable or not.

[ledjend]

TODAY 9/11


- CHC A bet - currently -275, play Money Line (505 est)
- Pit B bet - currently -175, play Money Line (705 est)
- KC A bet - currently -114, play Alt Run Line +1.5 at -255 (705 est)
- NYY B bet - currently +141, play Run Line +1.5 at -120 (705 est)
- Bos A bet - currently +143, play Run Line +1.5 at -160 (710 est)
- Was B bet - currently -146, play Money Line (710 est)
- LAD A bet - currently -127, play Alt Run Line +1.5 at -305 (940 est)
- SF A bet (vs SD) - currently -145, play Money Line(1015 est)


The Cubs play a doubleheader today so be sure to place your B bet on the 2nd game if we lose the first.

Good luck!


*IMPORTANT: Be sure to monitor the lines on Covers.com and wait as long as you can to place your action. Closing lines of -130 or lower should be made on the Run Line/Alternate Run Line.

[ledjend]

YESTERDAY 9/11

Flat Betting (Entered day 154-99, -23.59 u)

- KC +1.5 at -255 - Loss
- NYY +1.5 at -125 - Loss
- Bos +1.5 at -160 - Loss
- Was at -146 - Loss
- LAD +1.5 at -280 - Loss
- CHC at -275 - Win
- Pit at -171 - Win
- SF +1.5 at -300 - Win


3-5, -6.66 u on day

Year to date only -199 lines and below - 104-76, -17.73 u
Year to date only -200 lines and above - 53-28, -12.52 u

Year to date combined - 157-104, -30.25 u



Chase (Entered day 153-8, -9 u)

- KC A bet - Loss
- NYY B bet - Loss
- Bos A bet - Loss
- Was B bet - Loss
- LAD A bet - Loss
- CHC A bet - Win
- Pit B bet - Win
- SF A bet (vs SD) - Win


Year to date - 156-8, -6 u


Important Note: As of 7/23, lines of -200 or greater I have not been flat betting - but I continue to keep records for both: 1) for those of you who still are, and 2) to see whether that decision will turn out to be profitable or not.

[ledjend]

TODAY 9/12


- KC B bet - currently not listed yet (105 est)
- NYY C bet - currently not listed yet (105 est)
- Bos B bet - currently -104, play Run Line +1.5 at not listed yet (610 est)
- Was C bet - currently +147, play Run Line +1.5 at -160 (710 est)
- LAD B bet - currently -115, play Alt Run Line +1.5 at not listed yet (810 est)


Good luck!


*IMPORTANT: Be sure to monitor the lines on Covers.com and wait as long as you can to place your action. Closing lines of -130 or lower should be made on the Run Line/Alternate Run Line.

[stacks on deck]

Damn. This a crucial day coming up.. see if cueto can redeem himself.

[chief42]

It was a great idea on paper, but this system is done, time to scrap this idea and go back to the drawing board. You should probably consider giving the parameters of the system so people can come together and try and turn this around to make it profitable. I lost too much money following this and after a while stopped tailing blindly and picked my spots. Still hard to make profits when these C bets are losing at this high rate. Thanks for sharing legjend, but very frustrated with the performance of this.

[sportsbetter21]

There is no shame in cutting this off.
It's painful watching this spiral out of control

[VegasPlayer]

Quick math shows a 95% hit rate on the chases. Too bad the juice was so damn high. Wonder how many of the wins would have hit on the -1.5 and if it would have helped this or not?

[stacks on deck]

Done?

[bob6199]

Done?

he lost 2 chases and was at -10, it's clear he was trying to have a good year then go tout. He has no system and was just picking good teams not to lose 3 in a row. Google Jeffthehat, systems NEVER work.

[sportsbetter21]

I tried to warn you guys from the start and got called hater of the year. Everyone thought I had an agenda just because I asked him to justify his picks and past results, which he still hasn't done. Please don't think for a minute this guy lost a dime betting on his own picks.
Now that his intentions of trying to go tout on your dime and his lack of integrity have been exposed, I'm curious how many of still welcome this guy with open arms and willing to throw him a pity party?

i have this feeling he has nothing to say now and has been given plenty of opportunity to do so. no apologies, no remorse for talking shit and not even the common courtesy to officially close this out with some final numbers. Just remember he is the one who said

Past numbers will be validated with upcoming results.

[stacks on deck]

Damn. Done for real? Lol

[sportsbetter21]

Damn. Done for real? Lol

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IoyvvEWHodk

[Slanina]

Last post 8 days ago. Either died or high tailed it. I didn't bet any of the plays but I browsed periodically. What a monumental fail.

[sportsbetter21]

Cmon dude
Be a man and post final numbers

[jaxjonesdrew32]

lol @ anyone who played this stupid 'system'

[ledjend]

FINAL NUMBERS

189-11, -31.5 u


My apologies to anyone who tailed this trainwreck of a season. I personally did not make another play with this system after the 2 losses on 9/12 - because of that, I stopped posting.

The remainder of the season finished 30-1, but the loss cost 26 units which would've eaten into most of the profits anyway. So we didn't miss much.

I didn't keep track of the flat betting but there were 21 A wins, 6 B wins, 3 C wins, and the 1 loss - which probably would equate to losing another 5-10 units.

I do still think the idea of the system has promise and I found a very common theme in most of the losses. The mistake I probably made was rushing to post the system before back testing it a little further - which won't happen again.

In the meantime, for those who care, I've put together an NHL system using some of the same ideas. Only difference is I went back over the last 10 years this time. I am personally playing it, so I will be posting it. There's no thread yet, but I will be creating one in the next week or so.

Again, I'm sorry for the way things played out over the last 3 months - and hopefully I can make it up to you in the future.