MLB 2nd Half Strategy - +318u last 3 years

[ledjend]

TODAY 7/7


- KC B bet (vs TB) - currently -116, play Alternate Run Line +1.5 at -210 (210 est)
- Was A bet - currently -143, play Money Line (705 est)
- Pit A bet (vs SD) - currently -137, play Money Line (705 est)
- Tex A bet - currently -142, play Money Line (805 est)



As a side note, there are 2 doubleheaders today. The outcomes of those games could potentially produce more plays for today. I'll be sure to post if that happens.


*IMPORTANT: Be sure to monitor the lines on Covers.com and wait as long as you can to place your action. Closing lines of -130 or lower should be made on the Run Line/Alternate Run Line.

Good luck!

[sportsbetter21]

How is it sketchy? It's more profit with less risk!

And you can play whichever way you choose. I'm posting results for both.

Didnt realize you were tracking both.

So how does a series qualify again?
Knowing this info would validate your past numbers

[ledjend]

Didnt realize you were tracking both.

So how does a series qualify again?
Knowing this info would validate your past numbers

Past numbers will be validated with upcoming results.

[sportsbetter21]

Past numbers will be validated with upcoming results.

Cmon now,
You're really starting to sound like scam or a soon to be tout.

Still havent answered the question: how does a series qualify?
Am I not asking the right question?
Usually when someone creates and post a "system" it usually sound something like this: home team that scored XX amount of runs on even number days win 95% of the time for a 5 game chase......

Good luck with your system and please don't think i'm trying to knock your plays.
It takes some time and effort to even post something like this but at the same time dont waste everyones time here
promising gold and riches at the end rainbow by saying all your "hard work and efforts" are validated by upcoming results.
Its easy to say your good when your hitting 80% and someone with your 20 years of betting experience knows NOBODY hits 80% for an entire season.

Just sayin

[bob6199]

jesus man, Ya'll are some haters, who cares if he is a tout, enjoy the plays, if it hits now, who cares if he goes tout? Does it really matter enjoy the free plays damn and stop complaining, you PPL really are POS...

[R.P. McMurphy]

Agree Bob guys on here post free plays fade or follow. Bout as asinine as the clueless troll morons with the line "post a ticket or it didn't happen". Lol that classic I'm a fukktard line never gets old

[bob6199]

IDK if he becomes tout nor do i care if he ever does, as long as the results back up the talk he has been doing, I'll enjoy it.

[sportsbetter21]

IDK if he becomes tout nor do i care if he ever does, as long as the results back up the talk he has been doing, I'll enjoy it.

Im not trying to speak for the guy. Just wanted to check for myself his claim of making over 100 units in 3 months over the last 3 years. If he is seriously capping at this win rate and making all those units and doubling his bankroll then thats great but when he keeps dodging the question of what qualifies his chase system then that makes me 2nd guess his claim. Anyone here aware of who jeff the hat is? google him for yourself and you will know exactly what im talking about

[ledjend]

Im not trying to speak for the guy. Just wanted to check for myself his claim of making over 100 units in 3 months over the last 3 years. If he is seriously capping at this win rate and making all those units and doubling his bankroll then thats great but when he keeps dodging the question of what qualifies his chase system then that makes me 2nd guess his claim. Anyone here aware of who jeff the hat is? google him for yourself and you will know exactly what im talking about

I read a book recently that talked about why we tend to focus more on negative things than positive. The author explained that the ancient part of our mind is built for survival. Focusing on negative rather than positive could potentially save your life.

It served a purpose back in the day when people would hear noises in the woods. If they ignored that noise and it turned out to be a mountain lion, regardless of the million good things that could've been happening in their lives at that moment, it wouldn't matter because they'd be dead.

I'm not going to tell you what the strategy is. Doesn't matter what the reason is - it's just what I've decided.

So it's up to you to figure out which part of your mind to listen to. Is the noise I'm making the sound of a mountain lion - or is the sound just similar to a mountain lion from your past?

[trobin31]

Good luck today led

[ledjend]

YESTERDAY 7/7

Flat Betting (Entered day 15-7, +2.9 u)

- Was at -145 - Loss
- Tex +1.5 at -220 - Loss
- Pit - Win
- KC - Win

2-2, -1.65 u on day

Year to date - 17-9, +1.25u



Chase (Entered day 14-1, -.5u)

- Was A bet - Loss
- Tex A bet - Loss
- vs TB B bet - Win
- vs SD A bet - Win

Year to date - 16-1, +1.5u

[ledjend]

TODAY 7/8


- NYY A bet - currently -101, play Run Line +1.5 at -170 (705 est)
- Was B bet - currently -149, play Money Line (705 est)
- Bos A bet (vs Mia) - currently -177, play Money Line (710 est)
- Tex B bet - currently -111, play Alternate Run Line +1.5 at -185 (805 est)


*IMPORTANT: Be sure to monitor the lines on Covers.com and wait as long as you can to place your action. Closing lines of -130 or lower should be made on the Run Line/Alternate Run Line.

Good luck!

[ledjend]

Good luck today led

Thanks buddy - you too!

[sportsbetter21]

I read a book recently that talked about why we tend to focus more on negative things than positive. The author explained that the ancient part of our mind is built for survival. Focusing on negative rather than positive could potentially save your life.

It served a purpose back in the day when people would hear noises in the woods. If they ignored that noise and it turned out to be a mountain lion, regardless of the million good things that could've been happening in their lives at that moment, it wouldn't matter because they'd be dead.

I'm not going to tell you what the strategy is. Doesn't matter what the reason is - it's just what I've decided.

So it's up to you to figure out which part of your mind to listen to. Is the noise I'm making the sound of a mountain lion - or is the sound just similar to a mountain lion from your past?

Ive wished you nothing but the best of luck.
Thank you for answering my question.
You simply could have said youre keeping a secret from the start.

I believe in give a man a fish you feed him for a day. Teach a man to fish you feed him for a lifetime.

[Hawk007]

Curios as to why you list Run Line/Alternate Run Line. Kind of confusing...
Maybe I missed something but aren't all the plays on the ARL, fav -130 or less?

Thanks and best of luck!

[Hawk007]

One other thing are you flat betting this year or are you using the RL's?

[ledjend]

Curios as to why you list Run Line/Alternate Run Line. Kind of confusing...
Maybe I missed something but aren't all the plays on the ARL, fav -130 or less?

Thanks and best of luck!

In my experience, Run Lines are on the main betting page while Alternate Run Lines are normally in a separate section. For the most part, Alternate Run Lines will be needed for favorites -111 to -130.

One other thing are you flat betting this year or are you using the RL's?

Using Run Lines.

[ledjend]

YESTERDAY 7/8

Flat Betting (Entered day 17-9, +1.25 u)

- Tex +1.5 at -185 - Loss
- NYY - Win
- Bos - Win

2-1, +.15 u on day

Year to date - 19-10, +1.40 u



Chase (Entered day 16-1, +1.5u)

- Tex B bet - Loss
- NYY A bet - Win
- Bos A bet (vs Mia) - Win

Year to date - 18-1, +3.5u

[ledjend]

TODAY 7/9


- CHW A bet (vs Tor) - currently -113, play Alternate Run Line +1.5 at -185 (210 est)
- Atlanta A bet - currently -114, play Alternate Run Line +1.5 at -240 (840 est)
- Atlanta A bet (vs Col) - currently -114, play Alternate Run Line +1.5 at -240 (840 est)
- LAA A bet (vs Sea) - currently +126, play Run Line +1.5 at -180 (1010 est)


Yes, Atlanta should be played as two separate bets/series.


*IMPORTANT: Be sure to monitor the lines on Covers.com and wait as long as you can to place your action. Closing lines of -130 or lower should be made on the Run Line/Alternate Run Line.


Good luck!

[blackHIPPY]

so Toronto +1.5 and risk 2 to win 1
and if that loses next is 6 to win 3?

[Hawk007]

Thanks ledjend.

I have a $500 BR I am setting aside for this system.
Being a 3GM chase and the juicy lines, I'm thinking to try and win $10 would be about right, and that might be a little high.
What do u think?

[blackHIPPY]

and bet atl twice?

[ledjend]

so Toronto +1.5 and risk 2 to win 1
and if that loses next is 6 to win 3?

If you're chasing, yes. Average series loss will cost about 18 units. In my experience, playing to win 2% of your bankroll is a good rule of thumb to follow.

[ledjend]

Thanks ledjend.

I have a $500 BR I am setting aside for this system.
Being a 3GM chase and the juicy lines, I'm thinking to try and win $10 would be about right, and that might be a little high.
What do u think?

$10 would be 2% so I think that's a good idea.

[ledjend]

Yes, bet Atl twice.

[blackHIPPY]

thanks

[keel44]

Thanks ledjend.

I have a $500 BR I am setting aside for this system.
Being a 3GM chase and the juicy lines, I'm thinking to try and win $10 would be about right, and that might be a little high.
What do u think?

You could also flat bet each game to win $40 which is 8% of your bankroll

[keel44]

not a good day at all....I would really hate to be the guy chasing all of that juice. For anyone who is flat betting, reset your 8% daily. When you have losing days, you bet less. When you have winning days, you bet more.

[VegasPlayer]

I'm experimenting with the -1.5 run line. A little easier to stomach. Got the CWS @ +180 today.

[Hawk007]

I think if you're going to play a system that has been back tested for 3 or more years, you play the system the way it was created. I went in knowing the juice is going to be outlandish. But, as long as it wins, that's all that matters.
Let's have a great weekend
ledjend!

[ledjend]

thanks

My pleasure!

[ledjend]

not a good day at all....I would really hate to be the guy chasing all of that juice. For anyone who is flat betting, reset your 8% daily. When you have losing days, you bet less. When you have winning days, you bet more.

Today I'm going back through the last 5 years and tallying every single A, B, and C loss and the juice for each. The -165 average you/I came up with was really just an assumption.

So far this year, the average loss has been -179. Which, even though still profitable, considerably decreases the value of flat betting. At -190, there's no value at all.

I'll share this info as soon as I finish.

[ledjend]

I'm experimenting with the -1.5 run line. A little easier to stomach. Got the CWS @ +180 today.

I like this idea as well - on my to-do list.

[ledjend]

I think if you're going to play a system that has been back tested for 3 or more years, you play the system the way it was created. I went in knowing the juice is going to be outlandish. But, as long as it wins, that's all that matters.
Let's have a great weekend
ledjend!

Yes! You definitely need to have an investor's mindset for it to work - looks like you've got that.

[ledjend]

YESTERDAY 7/9

Flat Betting (Entered day 19-10, +1.40 u)

- Atl +1.5 at -195 - Loss
- Atl +1.5 at -195 - Loss
- LAA +1.5 at -180 - Loss
- CHW - Win

1-3, -4.7 u on day

Year to date - 20-13, -3.3 u



Chase (Entered day 18-1, +3.5u)

- Atl A bet - Loss
- Atl A bet (vs Col) - Loss
- LAA A bet (vs Sea) - Loss
- CHW A bet (vs Tor) - Win

Year to date - 19-1, +4.5u