[SBRforum Staff]

Rocky Mountain high no longer as totals are still set too high despite the humidor effect this season.

Coors Field has been a very strong under park all season long, and while the totals for games there have adjusted down to a slightly lower range, they are still in general too high. For this game, there are many other additional factors likely to cause limited scoring, giving strong value to the under.

First of all, Rich Hill is being given entirely too little credit. He was dominant in the minors, and while he has been terrible in the majors to date, his last two starts have been deep and very good. It was only a matter of time before he settled himself and became at least a decent major league pitcher. It appears that has already happened. He is very likely to have a quality start, and may well have a dominant one.

On the other side, Aaron Cook has been generally quite good, and a bit underrated, for the past 2 seasons. While he admittedly has been less effective for the past month and a half, those modest struggles are not too concerning. He has still mixed in top-notch starts with his mediocre ones, and he has never gotten crushed. For this game, while he may not have a shutdown start, he is very likely to have a decent one.

And finally, neither of the offenses involved are particularly strong or hot right now. During Colorado's last home stand, three offenses came in (Milwaukee, San Diego, and St. Louis) and all got shut down. Chicago's offense is comparable to those three, in fact rating a few ticks weaker than all of them. They have been a bit more productive of late, but they are fundamentally not a strong lineup, and going into the thin air of Colorado facing Cook's sinker will likely render them quite feeble. Colorado's lineup is modest as well, and has been particularly weak recently. They haven't scored more than three runs in any of their past six games.

With two promising starters, not much offensive firepower, a strong under ballpark, and a relatively high total, there is great value with the under in this game.

Play: UNDER

[bigboydan]

not a game that really excites me at all from a betting stand point.

i think that humidor thing the rockies have been using this year has been a blessing for the under bettors. combine that with the cubs shakey offensive numbers, and i can see the under cashing in this game tonight as well.