[SBRforum Staff]

By: SBR Staff
8/9/2006 2:01:43 PM


This game has a low total of 8 because Jeff Francis has pitched well of late, and Derek Lowe, after having been terrible for a stretch, finally pitched a good game in his last start.

But the Dodgers have been an extremely strong "over" team at home this year, and this game has a lot of good statistical likelihoods that could drive the score over the total.

First of all, we are not at all convinced that Lowe has solved his problems after just one decent start. He was facing a young, wearied, and slumping Florida lineup, and his tendency towards having inexplicably bad outings is firmly entrenched. He has not been injured or fatigued, just ineffective. If he reverts to that form in this game, the Colorado lineup will be able to take advantage, just as the 3 mediocre lineups Lowe faced in his last 3 home starts were able to.

On the other side, while Francis can be very good, he has also been given to inconsistency throughout his career, and particularly on the road. A sub-par outing against the resurgent Dodger lineup would not at all be a surprise. Bolstering this likelihood further is the fact that the Dodgers have hit lefties particularly well this year.

If either pitcher has an off day, which is likely, the score will be at least close to the total by the 6th inning. The number of the line, and the pitchers and offenses involved, give strong value to the over.

PLAY: COLORADO/DODGERS OVER

[bigboydan]

i can see this one being a pitchers dual though.

[Illusion]

i can see this one being a pitchers dual though.

I can as well. I like the Rockies ml, rev rl and the under.