Atlanta 63% - Smoltz is very steady, and that gives Atlanta a big edge going in a hitters' park against a suspect Cincinnati starter. Lohse is likely to have some good starts before the season is over, but he will be vulnerable here against what will likely be a solid Atlanta lineup. When Lohse was starting for Minnesota earlier in the year, he had a high degree of volatility. In this game, if he gets crushed, Cincinnati will have little chance, and if he doesn't, Atlanta will still have a reasonable chance of winning.
Yankees 53% - The Yankees should have a modest lineup edge here. Lopez has been having some good starts of late, but will still be very vulnerable. This game should be a high-scoring affair, with neither starter going deep. This scenario confers only a small edge to the Yankees overall.
Boston 56% - Howell has been terrible in the majors so far, but he showed some promise in Triple A recently, and he may well be able to keep up with the very shaky Johnson here. Even if he does, Boston will still have an edge if the game is close, but Tampa Bay should be able to stay in this game the whole way. This game will feature a parade of sub-par pitchers until the very end.