1. #1
    Ganchrow
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    August 6 Ganchalysis

    Atlanta 63% - Smoltz is very steady, and that gives Atlanta a big edge going in a hitters' park against a suspect Cincinnati starter. Lohse is likely to have some good starts before the season is over, but he will be vulnerable here against what will likely be a solid Atlanta lineup. When Lohse was starting for Minnesota earlier in the year, he had a high degree of volatility. In this game, if he gets crushed, Cincinnati will have little chance, and if he doesn't, Atlanta will still have a reasonable chance of winning.

    Yankees 53% - The Yankees should have a modest lineup edge here. Lopez has been having some good starts of late, but will still be very vulnerable. This game should be a high-scoring affair, with neither starter going deep. This scenario confers only a small edge to the Yankees overall.

    Boston 56% - Howell has been terrible in the majors so far, but he showed some promise in Triple A recently, and he may well be able to keep up with the very shaky Johnson here. Even if he does, Boston will still have an edge if the game is close, but Tampa Bay should be able to stay in this game the whole way. This game will feature a parade of sub-par pitchers until the very end.

  2. #2
    Ganchrow
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    Angels 55% - Although Saunders has been excellent in his first 2 starts so far, Texas' offense is strong right now, and he may run into trouble in the daytime at home. His success is not a mirage, and is very likely to continue for the rest of the season, but there will be bumps, and this might be one. Eaton is also likely to have a letdown after his first successful start back from the DL. This game has a very high degree of uncertainty to it, as both starters' likely outings are unclear, and both offenses are productive and will be able to take advantage of any weaknesses they encounter. This game has a very low confidence number.

    Oakland 53% - Seattle's offense has been underachieving, and they are sure to have a strong run at some point soon. Statistically, this is a very good spot for them to rebound, however, it is also a strong spot statistically for Blanton. He has tended to get better as the season wears on, and he does well in pitcher-friendly parks. His brief record at Safeco is sharp. Meche is also likely to have a strong start against the weakish Oakland offense, and he should keep Seattle in the game. Even though Oakland has won many games in a row against Seattle, they rate only a very small overall edge in this game.

  3. #3
    Ganchrow
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    Houston 57% - Pettitte has struggled this year, but he may well have a much better second half. If he struggles again in this game, he is still not likely to struggle more than Vargas, which gives Houston a decent edge overall. The Houston bullpen is shaky, and reduces their statistical edge significantly, but they will likely be called on to protect a multi-run lead. Another strong offensive day for Houston is likely.

    Mets 58% - Maine has a nice shutout-inning streak going, and he is likely to have a good start again here. However, he is very likely to experience great volatility for the remainder of the season, and the resurgent Philadelpia lineup is likely to give him at least a little trouble in this game. On the other side of the same coin, Mathieson has some talent and will likely have some good starts the rest of the way. The difference between the two starters is not as great as it may seem based on their recent performances. The Mets do have a significant bullpen edge, which is likely to factor in their favor at the end of this game.

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