[SpartyPt11]

Cliff Lee 5 starter to ace My prediction 8-17 this year if he doesnt get hurt
Cole Hamels offense is getting weaker has to pitch SO
R Holladay unless he is pitching vs the yanks or sox
J Saunders Loss of K-rod older team
Dice K under .500 this year!!!

all these guys will be favored early!!!!
ARI pitchers expect webb!!
Pettitte not sure... NYY line is soo stong but he will usually be favored so I would go againist him


meche and greinke bet them strong will be dogs and the royals will be much improved!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[wild willy]

Roy's pretty good against anybody

[SpartyPt11]

I agree with you but 8 wins vs those two teams!! he was 20-11 last year... very consistent the last 7 years (dont count 2004)! I just see a decline in his game! if im wrong im wrong but its how I feel in that strong strong AL east

[SpartyPt11]

[yisman]

You mean Halladay? Doc is really good.

Also, I wouldn't count on Daisuke finishing under .500. I would get in on that action.

[Willie Bee]

Sparty, I agree with you that they might be good candidates for fading early in certain situations. But not sure about some of your season-long predictions.

Cliff Lee and Daisuke Matsuzaka are the du jour favorites to slide back. I have yet to read one preview piece on either player that doesn't include some line like 'look for a drop-off from their 2008 stats.' And the reasoning is very simple: Difficult to repeat W-L records from one year to the next. I could see Lee having roughly the same season in ERA and WHIP and going 15-9 this time just because of the other factors involved.

Everyone points to Dice-K's walk totals as the reason he's iffy this year. That's only partly the case. The high BB numbers increase his pitch count and he's very often unable to go more than 5 IP. In fact, it's an outright rarity it seems to see him pitch 6+. That means he's totally dependent upon the BoSox relievers to hold the lead, i.e., his wins are almost entirely out of his hand, no pun intended.

Though Francisco Rodriguez is gone from the Angels, the relievers who set K-Rod's 62 saves up remain. Saunders's positive numbers were helped along by a very hot start to 2008 (6-0 through May 4, 9-2 through early June). Not sure he will have a stretch like that again, especially early on, but something like a 15-9 mark is very possible for the lefty.

Halladay is one guy I wouldn't bet against, period.

And the bit about the Phillies being weaker on offense, hmmm, as important as Pat Burrell was to the lineup, the real key for me will be Chase Utley's health and whether or not he's anywhere close to 100% early on. Their offense could be down a bit, but then, Hamels could also be a better pitcher this season as he gains experience. Here again, will their bullpen be able to hold those leads in the 8th and 9th innings? Hard to imagine Brad Lidge having as strong a year statistically as he did in 2008.

FYI: My team-by-team previews will start tomorrow (Mon, Feb 16).

[ANDYW15]

Sparty, I agree with you that they might be good candidates for fading early in certain situations. But not sure about some of your season-long predictions.

Cliff Lee and Daisuke Matsuzaka are the du jour favorites to slide back. I have yet to read one preview piece on either player that doesn't include some line like 'look for a drop-off from their 2008 stats.' And the reasoning is very simple: Difficult to repeat W-L records from one year to the next. I could see Lee having roughly the same season in ERA and WHIP and going 15-9 this time just because of the other factors involved.

Everyone points to Dice-K's walk totals as the reason he's iffy this year. That's only partly the case. The high BB numbers increase his pitch count and he's very often unable to go more than 5 IP. In fact, it's an outright rarity it seems to see him pitch 6+. That means he's totally dependent upon the BoSox relievers to hold the lead, i.e., his wins are almost entirely out of his hand, no pun intended.

Though Francisco Rodriguez is gone from the Angels, the relievers who set K-Rod's 62 saves up remain. Saunders's positive numbers were helped along by a very hot start to 2008 (6-0 through May 4, 9-2 through early June). Not sure he will have a stretch like that again, especially early on, but something like a 15-9 mark is very possible for the lefty.

Halladay is one guy I wouldn't bet against, period.

And the bit about the Phillies being weaker on offense, hmmm, as important as Pat Burrell was to the lineup, the real key for me will be Chase Utley's health and whether or not he's anywhere close to 100% early on. Their offense could be down a bit, but then, Hamels could also be a better pitcher this season as he gains experience. Here again, will their bullpen be able to hold those leads in the 8th and 9th innings? Hard to imagine Brad Lidge having as strong a year statistically as he did in 2008.

FYI: My team-by-team previews will start tomorrow (Mon, Feb 16).

Excellent post. Look forward to your team previews.

[jgbgsox]

two more pitchers sabathia and burnett will be going against them all year

[SpartyPt11]

Wille I like your logic and I appreciate it!! I agree with everything you say and most of those comments I believe make my point (your detail is perfect). Roy is just the guy we really disagree on, and im just looking at the teams he throws against being +150 to +250 dogs and I just think the value is there.

As for going against CC and burnett! your a sox fan soooo I can see why you say that but going aganist that yankees offense is dangerous! Plus can burnett stay healthy?

[therookie300]

Halladay is a tough pitcher to bet against. He is really good. The problem is the Toronto offense scoring enough runs when he is on the mound.

[Rio DiNero]

I don't know what your list is based on, but I like to see performance and spot the guys who have "dead arms''. I'm looking for this years Matt Morris or Mark Redmen. I made a killing fading guys like these!

[BouncedCheck]

Pettitte sucks.

[Unitage]

Halladay is the best pitcher in baseball.
Even with the juice betting against him every game is just plain foolish.
Unit wise he might even be up units by the end of the year because the Jays are expected to suck as a team.

[whatisit]

I don't know what your list is based on, but I like to see performance and spot the guys who have "dead arms''. I'm looking for this years Matt Morris or Mark Redmen. I made a killing fading guys like these!

Ryan Dempster could be one of these guys. Actually think he's a lock as last year was a huge statistical anomaly compared to teh rest of his career numbers...

[Spanks]

[Rio DiNero]

Ryan Dempster could be one of these guys. Actually think he's a lock as last year was a huge statistical anomaly compared to teh rest of his career numbers...

I agree, I watch this guy all the time. He recieved very good run support last year, his stuff was average,not to mention he has one of the slowest deliveries in baseball. Good find, I'm with you on fading Dempster.