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Florida 56% - This is a dangerous spot for Trachsel. The Florida lineup has some pop to it, and he might be wearing down a bit and could get hit as hard as he got hit in his last start. The Mets crushed Nolasco the last time they faced him, but if he is on top of his game he will be able to have a quality start, putting Florida in a good position to win. Their bullpen is not dominating, but it is capable of holding a lead of a few runs for a few innings against even strong offenses like the Mets'.

Yankees 65% - Wang has been excellent at home, and that is not a mirage. How he will respond to the extreme heat is another question, and one that has no historical precedent, as he missed most of July/August in his rookie season. Lilly has been poor against the Yankees in his career, and here he is likely to have either another mediocre outing, or at the very least, a short one. The Toronto lineup has gone cold, and facing Wang here in uncomfortable conditions on the road gives the Yankees a big edge.

Boston 55% - Sowers was phenomenal in his last 2 starts, but rookie volatility looms large for him in this game. Going up against a strong lineup at Fenway after 2 home complete game shutouts has "letdown" written all over it. Even if he does have another sharp outing, the heat will probably limit the duration of his start, and Boston will have an edge if the game becomes a bullpens vs. offenses slugfest. Lester has serious control problems, but he is still likely to have a 6-inning, 3-run variety of start.

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Arizona 54% - This is a very evenly matched game in all areas. Two young starters with decent talent who have had good starts to go along with their rookie struggles. Two mediocre lineups which will produce well at Wrigley in the promising offensive conditions for this game. And two so-so bullpens which are generally shaky but can also get the job done some of the time. This should be a high-scoring back and forth affair, but Marmol's propensity for walks will hurt him more in this game than in any other he has started. That is likely to prove to be the key factor in this game, and Arizona is likely to get to the Cubs' bullpen with a lead.

Philadelphia 61% - Philadelphia should have an edge in starting pitching here. Their lineup is producing well right now, and that spells trouble for a pitcher like Weaver, who is susceptible to the long ball. He will likely suffer a big inning at some point, which will give Philadelphia a good-sized lead. Myers has been pitching well and has a much greater likelihood of having a quality start. Philadelphia's current run of winning will taper off at some point, but this is not a likely spot for that to begin to happen.

White Sox 53% - Hudson actually rates an edge over Garcia here. They are two starters headed in opposite directions in their respective careers, and the Kansas City lineup hits well at home, taking advantage of vulnerable pitchers who visit them. The Kansas City bullpen is a wild card of course, but there is a modest yet significant chance that Garcia will get hit hard and Kansas City will be staked to a multi-run lead heading into the later innings.

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San Diego 57% - Williams is shaky, but he knows how to pitch and win at Petco, and the Houston lineup does not present a formidable challenge. He still may get hit, but a 6-inning, 2-run outing is more likely. Backe does not seem to be in shape to have deep quality starts yet. He is likely to have a better one here, but it still is not likely to be dominant or deep. San Diego will have small additional edges in lineups and bullpens, giving them a solid overall advantage.