[Ganchrow]

Philadelphia 56% - Nolasco has had a tougher time on the road than he has at home. The Philadelphia lineup might be coming into its own now, boosted by Utley's hot hitting. If the game is close, however, Philadelphia's pen will be in a more vulnerable situation.

Yankees 68% - It's difficult to guage Corcoran's likely performance, as he has been mostly used as a reliever this season. His starts have been decent, and he clearly has shown the potential to be consistently effective. The Yankee lineup poses a stiff challenge. Still, they have been overachieving recently and may well come down a notch soon. Wang has pitched extremely well at home his entire career, and he is likely to do so again here, although the Tampa Bay offense is waking up a bit.

Boston 58% - Escobar has the potential to be dominant, and his last start gave indications that he might be ready to be so in the final months of the season. He had troubles in the first inning, but then shut down an admittedly sub-par but still reasonable Kansas City lineup. Lester brings excellence to the table, but he will get hit with a bunch of losses soon, and it could begin tonight, going against the hot Angels' lineup. They are no doubt overachieving at the moment, but they are still a capable lineup, and if Lester's control problems flare up again, they will take advantage.

Baltimore 63% - This game involves two teams and pitchers headed in starkly opposite directions. Bedard has been tremendous, and it is not a mirage, and Garcia is likely headed for tough times. The White Sox' lineup has turned cold, and while that is sure to radically turn around in the relatively near future, this game is not a promising spot for that to happen. Baltimore's lineup is capable and should be able to get to Garcia.

[Illusion]

Ganch, do you have any numbers yet on Det/Min?

[Ganchrow]

Our INITIAL number on that game was Minnesota 66%. We made our maximum bet on Minnesota at -157. But we will be looking at that game again closer to game time, and if the percentage changes i'll post the writeup and number.

Also, we don't post confidence numbers in the writeups, although we refer to them sometimes, but this game has a somewhat low confidence number due to a bunch of factors, including high volatility with the Detroit starter, and situational volatility involving the Minnesota schedule.

[Illusion]

Thanks, because I am leaning towards Detroit and would love to see your thoughts.

[Ganchrow]

Minnesota 66% - Liriano's struggles in relief against Detroit earlier this year were probably anomalous. Miner's struggles since the break probably are not. Detroit does have a pen capable of going more innings, so they will have a small edge if the games goes into extra innings. But if Liriano has a 7-inning, 2-run type of outing, which is likely, Detroit will have a hard time managing a win.