It's A New Week. Time To Make Some $$ On Monday

[mgoncalves10]

Yeah the Dodgers blew it. I had them ML before the game, then they had man on 2nd, no outs, so i took them live to win by 2, go figure, they stranded that lead off double.

Going to take a look at today's picks shortly, and then I'll share my thoughts.

I was also trying to lock in Under 3.5 Total in the Bruins/Canadians game midway through the 2nd, and the live bet keep locking on me, so I wasn't able to get it in, and sure enough it would have hit.. Annoyed the hell out of me.

[RollinDo]

Yeah the Dodgers blew it. I had them ML before the game, then they had man on 2nd, no outs, so i took them live to win by 2, go figure, they stranded that lead off double.

Going to take a look at today's picks shortly, and then I'll share my thoughts.

I was also trying to lock in Under 3.5 Total in the Bruins/Canadians game midway through the 2nd, and the live bet keep locking on me, so I wasn't able to get it in, and sure enough it would have hit.. Annoyed the hell out of me.

Dude. I hate when that happens!
Same happened to me last night. I did a live bet with LA Kings +1 and a parlay with Ducks ML.
With 5 min. To go there was a TO, but 5 Dimes had stopped doing the game. I wanted to put in Over 4 goals, which would have won.

[mgoncalves10]

Twins @ Tigers

First up, I'm taking a look at Verlander at home tonight. At first glance, without even looking at stats, I clearly thought Detroit takes this game.

Detroit is coming off a loss at home against the Astros, while the Twins have lost 7 of their last 10. They were just swept by the Indians, and in their last 10, they've scored 32 runs, an average of 3.2 runs per game. Now they get to go up against one of baseball's best pitchers in Justin Verlander.

Verlander's numbers against the Twins in the last 3 years are ridiculous. At home since 2011, Verlander has gone 7-0 with a 2.01 ERA against the Twins. At Commerica Park since 2011, he's 25-12 with a 2.57 ERA. He has only given up more than 2 ER's once this season, which was in his last outing in Kansas City.

Phil Hughes on the other hand has been better lately, but away from home, he is still 0-1 with a 5.73 ERA. And since 2011, he's 1-2 at Commerica Park with a 4.15 ERA, and against the Tigers where he's been the home side, Hughes is 1-4 with a 5.96 ERA. So as you can see Verlander's numbers against the Twinkies are lights out, while Hughes' stats aren't as impressive, which isn't surprising.

And adding to the Twins' struggles, Mauer is likely going to be out of today's game as well. They had said he could return today, but it looks like tomorrow is more realistic for his return.

I can't find anything that leads me away from taking the Tigers. With the ML at -215 right now, that is a lot of juice, so I will most likely play that in a parlay, but the -1.5 RL at -110 will likely be a straight bet for me.

What are your thoughts on this game?

[RollinDo]

I don't like juice of any kind over -170.
I did a parlay: Tigers -1 / Texas +1.5
2 great hurlers...just don't see this losing. Bucholz has been shaky and Darvish at home is spectacular. He has struggled a bit vs Boston, but I'll take my chances...and give a little cushion just in case. Boston's bats have been weak all year and don't see them score G more than 4 vs Rangers, while Texas should be able to muster 3 or more vs Buchholz.
What about SF tonight? MadBum has been spectacular at Chavez - Ravine. Great price now at -130. Maholm has seen better days and Giants rip lefties pretty good, while Dodgers struggle last 2 seasons.

[mgoncalves10]

I don't like juice of any kind over -170.
I did a parlay: Tigers -1 / Texas +1.5
2 great hurlers...just don't see this losing. Bucholz has been shaky and Darvish at home is spectacular. He has struggled a bit vs Boston, but I'll take my chances...and give a little cushion just in case. Boston's bats have been weak all year and don't see them score G more than 4 vs Rangers, while Texas should be able to muster 3 or more vs Buchholz.
What about SF tonight? MadBum has been spectacular at Chavez - Ravine. Great price now at -130. Maholm has seen better days and Giants rip lefties pretty good, while Dodgers struggle last 2 seasons.

What do you use for betting? I use BetOnline & a bookie, and neither offer -1 on Baseball either ML or -1.5 which stinks.. Wish I could get the -1..

[mgoncalves10]

Marlins @ Padres

Marlins are -123 ML against the Padres who can't seem to hit a baseball right now, and they have the worst offense, and Fernandez is on the mound...? How can anyone pass up on that?

Yes I know the Marlins are only 3-10 on the road, but they beat the Padres last night, and with Fernandez getting the start today, I think it's going to be VERY difficult for the Padres to break out of their offensive slump.

Fernandez already beat the Padres once this season, and they are collectively batting .128 against him in 39 at bats. Away from home he is just 1-1 with a 4.50 ERA, but I can't convince myself that today is the day that the Padres bats' wake up..

Tyson Ross hasn't been all that bad either, with a 2-1 record at Petco Park and a 1.67 ERA this season at home. His struggles have come away from home (1-2, 5.94) but at night (2-3, 4.25) he hasn't been too great either. Since 2011, he's only faced the Marlins once, he didn't even pitch a full inning, and got tagged with a 108.00 ERA.. Yea you read that right.. In 6 at bats, the Marlins are tagging him with a .333 BA.

So regardless of Miami's struggles, they are on a good streak right now, and with Fernandez taking the mound, -123 is some good value. I may even get adventurous and take the RL depending on how my picks go earlier in the day.

[mgoncalves10]

Red Sox @ Rangers

Red Sox are road underdogs at +130 ML, with the RL at -160. Clay Buchholz gets the ball for Boston and although he has a 2-2 record with a 5.63 ERA, he actually hasn't been all that bad. He's had two bad outings, which have hurt his ERA. He gave up 6 ER's at home against Baltimore in 2.1 IP. And he gave up 6 ER's in his season debut at home against the Brewers in 4.1 IP. In his four other outings, he's given up 8 ER's in 25.1 IP. Both the games he got lit up, you would have expected him to have a good outing. In his games at Toronto, at New York Yankees, I would have expected him to get lit up because he has been hit or miss lately, but he had a decent outing.

I feel like tonight is another one of those situations where everyone expects Buchholz to implode against a Rangers team that can hit the ball, and shutout the Rockies last night 5-0. Clay is o-1 against Texas since 2011, and they are hitting .133 against him in 75 at bats.

Yu Darvish on the other hand has pitched well this season, but he hasn't done so well against the Red Sox. He's 0-1 against them since 2011, with a 5.93 ERA. In 27 at bats, the Red Sox are hitting .222 against him.

As a Red Sox fan, and someone who lives just outside Beantown, my opinion may not matter, but I could see the +1.5 for the Red Sox at -160 as a good choice. This is one of those that can go either way, and I may take my chances with the Sox RL, just going by Darvish's numbers against the Red SOx, which leads me to believe that if Buchholz can avoid a horrific inning, the Sox can keep this close.

[whtsox13]

What do you use for betting? I use BetOnline & a bookie, and neither offer -1 on Baseball either ML or -1.5 which stinks.. Wish I could get the -1..

Can make your own -1RL with two wagers: risk amt on the RL equal to win amt on the ML. Theres a calculator too that makes it easy I'll post a link when I find it.

http://www.bangthebook.com/picks/wagertools/calculator/mode/risk/league/MLB/

[mgoncalves10]

I'm taking a look at the Angels/Blue Jays game.. as well as the Phillies/Mets game..

McGowan's numbers this season at home are terrifying.. While Richards has pitched well, but his numbers at the Rogers Centre aren't flattering either... Any thoughts on this game..?

And the Phillies/Mets game.. Mejia and Hernandez haven't seen much of eachother. Hernandez pitched 0.1 IP against the mets this season, striking out the batter he faced. Mejia has only faced the Mets' bats 14 times, but they are hitting him with a .500 BA.The Phillies pitching let them down against the Blue Jays, but they still put runs 12 runs in three games, despite getting blanked in the 2nd game. New York has lost 6 of their last 7, and they aren't scoring much. Mejia is also coming off two terrible games, giving up 14 ER in 10 innings pitched. He's 2-0 at home with a 3.44 ERA, and Hernandez is 1-1 away from home with a 7.04 ERA. Is Hernandez the most dominant pitcher? Absolutely not, but given the Phillies offensive weapons, if they are even remotely swinging the bat decently, they could do damage against the Mets. And not to mention the Phillies are underdogs at +104... +1.5 RL is at -200...

Thoughts?

[RollinDo]

Marlins are -123 ML against the Padres who can't seem to hit a baseball right now, and they have the worst offense, and Fernandez is on the mound...? How can anyone pass up on that?

Yes I know the Marlins are only 3-10 on the road, but they beat the Padres last night, and with Fernandez getting the start today, I think it's going to be VERY difficult for the Padres to break out of their offensive slump.

Fernandez already beat the Padres once this season, and they are collectively batting .128 against him in 39 at bats. Away from home he is just 1-1 with a 4.50 ERA, but I can't convince myself that today is the day that the Padres bats' wake up..

Tyson Ross hasn't been all that bad either, with a 2-1 record at Petco Park and a 1.67 ERA this season at home. His struggles have come away from home (1-2, 5.94) but at night (2-3, 4.25) he hasn't been too great either. Since 2011, he's only faced the Marlins once, he didn't even pitch a full inning, and got tagged with a 108.00 ERA.. Yea you read that right.. In 6 at bats, the Marlins are tagging him with a .333 BA.

So regardless of Miami's struggles, they are on a good streak right now, and with Fernandez taking the mound, -123 is some good value. I may even get adventurous and take the RL depending on how my picks go earlier in the day.

I think I may hop on...but be advised I am a major streak breaker! Only 1 time in 5 tries have I hopped on board the wagon and the team wins when a team had a streak of 6+ games...I don't think Marlins are at 6 yet, but am I hopping on too late?

[RollinDo]

I think BOTH Reds ML and Rockies +1.5 have a good shot at hitting. Cueto is a beast at home so I don't see Rockies getting more than 3. At the same time, I think Reds can get a few off Nicasio, but their bats haven't been on fire lately.
I may go with Reds -1 and Rockies +1.5.
Another option is a parlay: Red Sox +1.5 / Rockies +2.5
This is about +100 payout I believe.

[RollinDo]

Check out this parlay:
Rockies +2.5 / Red Sox +1.5 / Marlins +1.5
+200 payout
What do you guys think?

[mgoncalves10]

Check out this parlay:
Rockies +2.5 / Red Sox +1.5 / Marlins +1.5
+200 payout
What do you guys think?

I like that one.. Surprised it pays out +200.. What's the line on the Rockies +2.5?

[mgoncalves10]

In hockey tonight. I like for the Penguins to put an end to the series today at home. Might take them straight up in regulation in the 3-way (-125). May also take them straight up ML as well (-175) and I'm also exploring the Rangers U2.5 at (-150)

[mgoncalves10]

Marlins lines have moved..

ML was -123, now it's at -134
RL was +150, and it's now at +135

[mgoncalves10]

Thinking: Tigers (ML), Penguins (ML), Marlins (ML) - Risking $30 to win $91.53...

Thoughts?

[RollinDo]

I would play it safe and go Marlins +1.5
Bullpen for Marlins could blow it if Jose doesn't go distance.

[mgoncalves10]

And just as a side note, Marty St. Louis' mother passed away I believe today, so it is unclear if he will play tonight against the Penguins. Could this help or hurt the Rangers? I'm thinking the Penguins still put things away tonight

[mgoncalves10]

Johnny Cueto has been fantastic this season, but he's also given up at least 1 HR in 4 of his 6 starts. How will that benefit the Rockies who despite getting shut out yesterday, have been slapping the hell out of the baseball? Chacin has only one start this season, and it came against the Mets where he gave up 8 hits and 4 ER's in 5 IP. Nothing to write home about considering the Mets aren't that great offensively. Chacin's numbers against the Reds are a little more promising (0-2, 3.38).. Yes I know he's 0-2, but Cueto is only 2-1 against the Rockies since 2011, with a 4.58 ERA.

At Great American Ballpark, Cueto is at his best. 16-5 with a 2.16 ERA since 2011. Impressive. Rockies have tagged him with a .388 BA in 49 at bats, while the Reds have hit Chacin at a .241 BA in 54 at bats..

So what gives here? O/U is set at 7, and I think that is a bit low, given how well the Rockies can hit the ball. Yes they are up against Cueto, but these guys can hit. Seeing how Cueto has struggled with the long ball, I like the Rockies +1.5 at -150, but I also think that the Rockies ML at a +146 underdog would not be a bad gamble.

[mgoncalves10]

Alright. Here go my picks. I haven't been posting my picks until the games are finished because I was being superstitious haha.. So I'll post them here today, maybe it will bring some good fortune.. I need to start wagering more on my favorite picks, and not wagering on so many games.. but anyways, here you go.. Depending on how the early games go, I will prob play some late night action as well.

Marlins, Tigers, Penguins - Risking $30 to win $91.53
NY Rangers (U2.5) - Risking $37.50 to win $25
Penguins (Regulation) - Risking $37.50 to win $30
Detroit Tigers (-1.5) - Risking $25 to win $25
Pacers/Wizards (O181.5), Giants, Cardinals/Pirates (U7), Yankees/Brewers (U7.5) - Risking $25 to win $225.50
Phillies, Red Sox (+1.5), Rockies (+1.5) - Risking $25 to win $113.12

[pokerwhiz90]

Hey what do you think of no runs scored in the 1st inning for the houston/baltimore game?

[mgoncalves10]

well looks like it's going to be an 0 for 6 night for me.. WOW!

[RollinDo]

What an awful week. Can't believe what's happened.
Hockey results tonight...are you kidding?
My 2 plays that saved me tonight were Reds ML / Rockies +1.5
(Hit both sides)
Rangers Under 8.5
Lost Clippers ML...Can't stand OKC...Most jekyll and hyde team.
Tigers. Huh???

[RollinDo]

So tomorrow guys, I have a big big play...

IF bet:
LA Kings ML

Parlay: Tigers -1 / Boston Bruins ML

TB Rays +1.5 (Laying juice)
This team has to win sooner or later.

Dodgers ML (Greinke will give LA a win in the series)

Going big on Blackhawks ML in Game 5.

Not much time to research anything else.
And I'm sure not gonna waste hours like I have this week only to lose 8 straight days.

[pokerwhiz90]

hey what do you think about detroit to score first for -135? scherzer is on the mound today against the twins

[mgoncalves10]

After another shit stretch of picks, back at it today. Was thinking of playing Yankees ML and Cardinals ML in a parlay.. Thoughts...

[pokerwhiz90]

I like the Yankees ML and the Over in the baltimore game... Cardinals look good on paper but they might lose this one since they were up late last night in Pitt....

[RollinDo]

I like Detroit/Balt Under...probably my strongest Under play for tonight.
Was thinking Yankees too, but isn't Kuroda really struggling?
Like Giants and M's tonight.

[RollinDo]

For Angels/Jays both starters just 1 ER in 7 1st innings.
Going with No Score 1st inning.

Also Heat ML.

[mgoncalves10]

I was thinking the U1 1st inning in the Angels game as well, but Wilson's #'s at the Rogers Centre are not great.. Worries me a little..