[Ganchrow]

Atlanta 63% - The Atlanta lineup was shut down by Carpenter last game, but Lidle and the Philadelphia bullpen will not pose the same challenge, and Atlanta should have at least a solid offensive game here, and likely another explosive one. Smoltz has been very effective and consistent, and he is likely to have a quality start here against the underachieving Philadelphia lineup.

Cleveland 66% - This is not a good spot for Silva at all. After seeing him 5 days ago, the potent Cleveland lineup will be primed for a better effort aginst him at home. Sabathia, on the other hand, should have a quality start against Minnesota, which hits much worse on the road than at home, and which is tired and was hitting low-quality pitching backed by their own top-tier starters in their recent Tampa Bay series. The edge Minnesota has in the bullpen will be of lesser than normal importance in this game.

Detroit 57% - This game should be a classic pitchers' duel, just as it was on July 4th in Oakland. Verlander may rate a small edge over Haren, but the bullpens rate roughly even, and Detroit's normally solid lineup edge may be significantly reduced by the mental fatigue of the tight and tense series with the White Sox.

Cincinnati 53% - Both teams have iffy bullpen situations for this game, with Milwaukee's probably being worse. Furthermore, Capuano will not have as much of an edge over Ramirez as it might at first seem; Capuano is not well suited to pitch in hitter friendly parks, and the Cincinnati lineup has some guys who hit lefties well. Ramirez has been consistent, and he will likely have his usual 6 IP 3 ER outing, which is also likely to be similar to Capuano's line. If that happens, Cincinnati will have an edge, playing at home with a decent lineup going against the struggling Milwaukee bullpen.

Toronto 52% - Burnett will be a big question mark for this game. It's not clear what kind of outing he will have, but it is likely to be either notably good or notably bad, as his others have been since his return from the DL. Whenever Wright starts for the Yankees, their bullpen situation is of paramount importance, since he is almost certain not to go more than 6 innings. Villone and Rivera will likely be used, and will likely be effective. If the Yankees need more than that, however, either due to extra innings or other reasons, they will be in trouble. Toronto will not be in good shape with their bullpen. Ryan seems like he is getting fatigued, and if he is used here he will be vulnerable. Burnett's outing is the key factor for this game, and that gives the game a high degree of uncertainty and a low confidence factor overall.

[DrSlamm]

My basic question is.. when you list the bluejays at 52 percent you are actually suggesting a yankees play as the line currently stands. (-127) Therefore wouldnt it make more sense to list the play as yankees 48 percent..

[Ganchrow]

The way we do our numbers involves coming up with an expected win percentage for the favorite. This is initially done without regard to the underlying line, and is initiated prior to the lines being released. Lines can and do readily change as can game circumstances. As such, posting picks would be disingenuous, and would run counter to our own skeptical philosophy.

Think of this as a tool you can choose to use in your analysis and not as a replacment for your own handicapping.

[Ganchrow]

Mets 65% - Buchholz has had a very high degree of volatility this year, and interestingly, has had his better starts in situations where he would be more expected to get hit, and vice versa. He seems to be evening things out recently, but he should still be vulnerable in this game. Unless he has one of his dominant shutout outings, which is certainly possible, Houston will be in trouble. The Mets' lineup is very powerful, and they will be poised to hit Buchholz and any relievers Houston trots out. Houston, on the other hand, has had trouble scoring runs of late. Hernandez is vulnerable to getting hit hard, but he is likely to bounce back from his last disastrous start, and if he has one of the 7-inning, 1 or 2 run outings he had reasonably frequently this year, Houston will have very little chance of winning.

Baltimore 63% - Despite Baltimore's troubles against lefties, they are likely to pull out a win here. Bedard has been lights out for a while now, and it is not a mirage. Additionally, he has always pitched well at Tropicana, and the Tampa Bay offense is not in a position to hit anyone hard right now. Fossum may well have a good outing too, but it is likely to be neither as good nor as deep as Bedard's, and when the bullpen comes in Baltimore will be able to add a bit of insurance.

Florida 61% - Florida's offense is likely to rebound from its last 2 poor outings against the very hittable Maholm. He has had major problems on the road and he is likely to run into trouble against the capable Florida lineup. Olsen is likely to have a better start than his last one where he had trouble with his pitches, but even if he doesn't, his less effective starts are still not too bad. Additionally, the Pittsburgh bullpen is in an extended state, while the Florida bullpen is better rested. With small to moderate edges in every area of the game, Florida has a big advantage in the game overall.

[Ganchrow]

Colorado 56% - Cook has had only so-so starts against Arizona this season, but he is still an effective overall pitcher, and he is likely to have a decent game. The same cannot be said for Vargas who has a tendency to give up runs in bunches. Colorado also has a modest lineup edge, as the heart of Arizona's lineup has little pop. Colorado's weakness here will be their suddenly shaky bullpen, but they will be rested and perhaps will return to a better state in the near future.

[Ganchrow]

Dodgers 57% - Penny was hit by St. Louis in his last start, and Suppan threw a very good game against the Dodgers in his, but the tables are likely to turn for this game. Suppan has had a very rough year, especially on the road, and even though the Dodger lineup is also struggling, they do have some reasonable hitters in their lineup, and returning home against a hittable pitcher may well get them going a bit tonight. Penny may have health problems, and if he does, the Dodgers will be in trouble, but for now, it can be assumed that he is reasonably sound physically. If Isringhausen is needed for a save situation, the Dodgers will have a better than normal chance of coming back to win.