[Ganchrow]

Cincinnati 52% - Arroyo has been significantly less effective in the daytime the past 3 years, and his likely performance here is very up in the air. It is also key to this game; if he doesn't have a dominant start, Cincinnati will be at a major disadvantage. Their bullpen is modestly improved, to be fair, but it will still be very vulnerable against strong lineups like the Mets'. Glavine is likely to have a mediocre outing. Watch the lineup announcements, as important players could be sitting on either side or both sides in this early day game after a long and difficult rain-delayed night game yesterday.

White Sox 62% - This year Rogers may very well have the same second half decline he has suffered each of the past 2 seasons, and he may also be in the thick of it right now; his last 4 starts have been bad, and have come against modest lineups at that. Facing the White Sox off of a loss in this big series does not bode well for him. Conteras has come back down to earth recently, and he will likely never again be as astoundingly dominant as he was in the second half of 2005 and the first half of 2006. Still, he should have a relatively strong game here, as he is still sharp and has always had good success at Comerica Park.

Minnesota 78% - Santana has been a tick or two off of his game recently, but the Tampa Bay offense is in a weak state right now, and he is very likely to have a dominant outing here. Shields has been mediocre, and although he might match Santana for a while, Minnesota will likely get to him at some point. If they don't, they will then have a substantial edge in the later innings with their bullpen and lineup as well.

[Illusion]

I'm surprised you have the White Sox so high. Rogers really pitched well against the White Sox last month only giving up two runs in 7 innings.

[Ganchrow]

Arizona 60% - Webb has been throwing great, but he is set up for a somewhat sub-par outing in this game. Still, the Dodgers' lineup is also likely to have a poor game, and Webb is very likely to have a quality start. Hendrickson should also have an effective start, but less so than Webb. Arizona enjoys a solid starting pitching edge, but other than that, every other area of this game for both teams rates even and mediocre.

San Diego 51% - Both starters have at times been effective but have in general been shaky. San Diego's bullpen confers much less of an edge now than it did earlier in the season, as Hoffman's recent problems might not be a mirage and he may well be vulnerable to blown saves for the rest of the season. Both teams are roughly evenly matched, but San Diego's undervaluation on the road gives them a slight edge here.

[DrSlamm]

so when you say 60 perccent.. is this a 60 percent chance of victory or what.. i mean how does this factor in with the odds that the line presents you

[Ganchrow]

so when you say 60 perccent.. is this a 60 percent chance of victory or what.. i mean how does this factor in with the odds that the line presents you

Yes, 60% would be our estimate of the likelihood of victory.

Not sure I understand the second part of your question, however.

[DrSlamm]

60 percent chance of victory into a -200 line = - EV

that is my question.

[RickySteve]

60 percent chance of victory into a -200 line = - EV

that is my question.

Err...

[DrSlamm]

err??

if the line is -200 a team needs to win 66 percent of the time to be break even.

Am i missing something here?

[Ganchrow]

60 percent chance of victory into a -200 line = - EV

that is my question.

Yes. An EV of -10% to be exact.

if the line is -200 a team needs to win 66 percent of the time to be break even.

Yes. A 60% win probability would imply a line of -150.

Am i missing something here?

I don't know. Perhaps I am? Am I addressing your question? If you're just asking how to calculate an expectation from a win percentage and a line, you may want to check out this thread.

[darkghost]

The "Ganchalysis" are simply analysis on some games not necessarily plays on the given teams.