on3's MLB 2014 Opening Day System Thread

[on3]

UPDATED for 6/23/2014
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 95-5-0; Profit: +75 units (NYY one game loss, -2.3 units, OAK loss -7.07 units, KC -8.5 units, COL -10.25 units, CLE -7 units)
Filtered System: 11-1-0; Profit: +6 units
5/2 chase: 1-1-0; profit: -11.80 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 65-35; 9-3
Game 2 (B) win = 17-18; 1-2; 1-1
Game 3 (C) win = 13-5; 1-1; 0-1

Labby
20-15-22-15
x-38-39-14
x-10-18-34

Labby filtered (changing to single line labby since there arent enough plays to justify a 3-line)
10-30-10-33

Regular -- all (A) plays must close at -145 or higher to be an official play
(A) TB -153 to win 35
(A) SF -157 to win 37

Filtered -- all plays must meet 'Regular' requirement and close at an O/U of 9 or higher to be an official play
none

5/2
none

[on3]

UPDATED for 6/24/2014
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 95-5-0; Profit: +75 units (NYY one game loss, -2.3 units, OAK loss -7.07 units, KC -8.5 units, COL -10.25 units, CLE -7 units)
Filtered System: 11-1-0; Profit: +6 units
5/2 chase: 1-1-0; profit: -11.80 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 65-37; 9-3
Game 2 (B) win = 17-18; 1-2; 1-1
Game 3 (C) win = 13-5; 1-1; 0-1

Labby
20-44-22-42
x-65-59-23
x-10-18-34

Labby filtered (changing to single line labby since there arent enough plays to justify a 3-line)
10-30-10-33

Regular -- all (A) plays must close at -145 or higher to be an official play
(B) TB -133 to win 65
(B) SF -151 to win 59

Filtered -- all plays must meet 'Regular' requirement and close at an O/U of 9 or higher to be an official play
none

5/2
none

[md3324]

LAA will also be a play tonight. They are currently at -176 starting a three game series with MIN. Not sure what ON3 would bet using the labby but it is a play.

[TenCount]

LAA will also be a play tonight. They are currently at -176 starting a three game series with MIN. Not sure what ON3 would bet using the labby but it is a play.

Yeah I was thinking the same thing.

[on3]

Early game, (C) TB -165 to win 81

[on3]

UPDATED for 6/25/2014
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 96-5-0; Profit: +76 units (NYY one game loss, -2.3 units, OAK loss -7.07 units, KC -8.5 units, COL -10.25 units, CLE -7 units)
Filtered System: 11-1-0; Profit: +6 units
5/2 chase: 1-1-0; profit: -11.80 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 66-37; 9-3
Game 2 (B) win = 17-20; 1-2; 1-1
Game 3 (C) win = 13-5; 1-1; 0-1

Labby
20-44-22-42
53-65-59-53
45-63-18-34

Labby filtered (changing to single line labby since there arent enough plays to justify a 3-line)
10-30-10-33

Regular -- all (A) plays must close at -145 or higher to be an official play
(C) TB -165 to win 81
(C) SF -115 to win 79

Filtered -- all plays must meet 'Regular' requirement and close at an O/U of 9 or higher to be an official play
none

5/2
none

[on3]

LAA will also be a play tonight. They are currently at -176 starting a three game series with MIN. Not sure what ON3 would bet using the labby but it is a play.

sorry for missing the LAA post, but yes it was a play. for future reference if i forget to post a play, the default 'to win' would be 1 unit, or $20.

[J.M. Disciple]

Finally!!! Tb comes through. Starting to flat bet all games -1.5 rl. if team wins by 1 i don't continue the chase. Hitting above 50% with plus odds this season. looks promising over short sample. ill try and back test a couple years for next season.

last season was worse season anyone know? Be a good season for a backtest

[TenCount]

sorry for missing the LAA post, but yes it was a play. for future reference if i forget to post a play, the default 'to win' would be 1 unit, or $20.

Hey On3 you don't need to apologize to anyone for missing a post man. I'm just glad I came across your thread at the start of this season. Although I gave up on using or understanding the labby lines and started a martingale, it's been all gravy.... Thanks for putting the time in. Bol the rest of the way.

[on3]

Finally!!! Tb comes through. Starting to flat bet all games -1.5 rl. if team wins by 1 i don't continue the chase. Hitting above 50% with plus odds this season. looks promising over short sample. ill try and back test a couple years for next season.

last season was worse season anyone know? Be a good season for a backtest

i play my (C) bets on the RL for 70% of my wager. it also seems to be working out well. that +180 on SF today was nice.

[on3]

UPDATED for 6/26/2014
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 98-5-0; Profit: +78 units (NYY one game loss, -2.3 units, OAK loss -7.07 units, KC -8.5 units, COL -10.25 units, CLE -7 units)
Filtered System: 11-1-0; Profit: +6 units
5/2 chase: 1-1-0; profit: -11.80 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 66-37; 9-3
Game 2 (B) win = 17-20; 1-2; 1-1
Game 3 (C) win = 15-5; 1-1; 0-1

Labby
20-44-22-42
53-65-59-53
x-x-x-x

shuffle

32-32-32-32
43-40-39-38
20-20-20-20

Labby filtered (changing to single line labby since there arent enough plays to justify a 3-line)
10-30-10-33

Regular -- all (A) plays must close at -145 or higher to be an official play
(A) TOR -165 to win 32
(A) PIT -149 to win 32
(A) MIL -195/+115 to win 32

Filtered -- all plays must meet 'Regular' requirement and close at an O/U of 9 or higher to be an official play
(A) TOR -165 to win 43
*MIL is at 8.5 right now, if it moves to 9, it becomes a play to win 40

5/2
none

[J.M. Disciple]

Shaping up to be a real nice day.

[Primet76]

Great day yesterday. This morning I thought the O's would be a play (and potentially a filtered play), but the line has taken a dive. Stay tuned. That said, I may play the series anyway as I don't see TB taking a 4 game sweep.

[on3]

Congratulations on passing the 100 win mark. Next stop +100 units.

UPDATED for 6/27/2014
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 101-5-0; Profit: +82.5 units (NYY one game loss, -2.3 units, OAK loss -7.07 units, KC -8.5 units, COL -10.25 units, CLE -7 units)
Filtered System: 13-1-0; Profit: +10 units
5/2 chase: 1-1-0; profit: -11.80 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 69-37; 11-3
Game 2 (B) win = 17-20; 1-2; 1-1
Game 3 (C) win = 15-5; 1-1; 0-1

Labby
15-15-15-15
28-25-24-23
20-20-20-20

Labby filtered (changing to single line labby since there arent enough plays to justify a 3-line)
10-10-10-10

Regular -- all (A) plays must close at -145 or higher to be an official play
(A) TEX -142 to win 30 **potential play

Filtered -- all plays must meet 'Regular' requirement and close at an O/U of 9 or higher to be an official play
(A) TEX -142 to win 20 **potential play

5/2
none

[on3]

btw, this is the best the system has performed in the last 3 years. truly remarkable especially with this type of volume.

[hagball52]

btw, this is the best the system has performed in the last 3 years. truly remarkable especially with this type of volume.

Good stuff On3. The JM MLB system is having a great year also. Let's keep it rolling.

[swngus44]

good stuff on3. The jm mlb system is having a great year also. Let's keep it rolling.

do you mind if i ask what this system is? Or where it can be found?

[J.M. Disciple]

Just search john Morrison under mlb threads

[hagball52]

do you mind if i ask what this system is? Or where it can be found?

http://forum.sbrforum.com/baseball-betting/2838560-2014-jm-mlb-thread.html

[J.M. Disciple]

What days do new series start on? Heard someone mention it before but i usually just check the games every day. feel like im wasting time.

[on3]

What days do new series start on? Heard someone mention it before but i usually just check the games every day. feel like im wasting time.

majority start monday and friday. but series' can start tuesday or thursday as well.

[BarstoolProphet]

Really like the results for this year so far. just some thoughts. Is there a site that has past series prices. I think that a good filter for this is to look at the overall series price as well.

Because a team might have their ace pitching in Game 1 and get a good price of -160 , but then have 2 bums pitch game 2 and 3. They would be a play given this system yet they might have been the dog at the series price. I always look at series prices because that tells me I can expect a team to be favored in at least 2 of the 3 games.

Sure this looks great at 101-5 , and may not need to be polished. But It might just turn for the worst or have bad results next year. Just looking for ways to refine this, thats all.

[Primet76]

Barstool - I posted the same thought a few pages back. For instance, I laid off the Indians series loss a few weeks back because I believe Detroit was favored in the series (or it might have been even). I have been watching series prices, and set my marker at -200. I believe there has only been one series that lost since I started tracking (Giants series where they blew saves in first two games of the series against the Rockies).

[J.M. Disciple]

If anyone does backtest or find past series prices please post. last year even though it profited thanks to the labby would be good year to backtest. just remember it may lower the variance but will also lower the profits because of less plays depending on how you bet of course.

[on3]

UPDATED for 6/30/2014
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 101-5-0; Profit: +82.5 units (NYY one game loss, -2.3 units, OAK loss -7.07 units, KC -8.5 units, COL -10.25 units, CLE -7 units)
Filtered System: 13-1-0; Profit: +10 units
5/2 chase: 1-1-0; profit: -11.80 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 69-37; 11-3
Game 2 (B) win = 17-20; 1-2; 1-1
Game 3 (C) win = 15-5; 1-1; 0-1

Labby
15-15-15-15
28-25-24-23
20-20-20-20

Labby filtered (changing to single line labby since there arent enough plays to justify a 3-line)
10-10-10-10

Regular -- all (A) plays must close at -145 or higher to be an official play
(A) BOS -155 to win 30 (series -170)
(A) WAS-220/-105 to win 30 -- play RL (series -330)
(A) ATL -164 to win 30 (series -240)

Filtered -- all plays must meet 'Regular' requirement and close at an O/U of 9 or higher to be an official play
(A) BAL -143 **potential play to win 20 (series -180)

5/2
none

[Primet76]

Thanks for including series price, on3. Should be interesting to follow.

JM - I spent some time looking (but not too much) and was unable to find historic series prices.

[md3324]

BOS is currently a play as well at -148. DET should also be watched....currently at -140.

[BarstoolProphet]

Tried to give points but would not let me. Good call on adding the series price. Prime is correct I think this might stop some off us from walking off a cliff. lol

Thanks again on3

[BarstoolProphet]

I wonder if there is some site that has series prices listed from the past. I wonder how this would stand up if it was filtered on the series price alone. Instead of game 1 @ -145 , how would this perform if it were the series price of -145 or better.

A good example of this is the LAD today. Heavy favorites in the series at -170, yet are listed as dogs today. A real good 2 game chase will be them on Game 2 and 3. Because that is precisely what the line is indicating.

[Legend_beatz]

I like this system. Will have to give it a shot. Thanks for everything, on3.

[on3]

i updated BOS as a play and it has filtered potential with the 8.5 juiced to -120

[J.M. Disciple]

Was going to say BAL would be filtered and regular but it did not meet the closing line criteria. Only have it listed under filtered.

Got lucky and missed out on boston. I'll be on them tomorrow though.

Good Luck everyone on the B.

[on3]

UPDATED for 7/1/2014
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 103-5-0; Profit: +85.5 units (NYY one game loss, -2.3 units, OAK loss -7.07 units, KC -8.5 units, COL -10.25 units, CLE -7 units)
Filtered System: 13-1-0; Profit: +10 units
5/2 chase: 1-1-0; profit: -11.80 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 71-38; 11-3
Game 2 (B) win = 17-20; 1-2; 1-1
Game 3 (C) win = 15-5; 1-1; 0-1

Labby
x-x-30-23
28-15-14-36
20-20-20-20

Labby filtered (changing to single line labby since there arent enough plays to justify a 3-line)
10-10-10-10

Regular -- all (A) plays must close at -145 or higher to be an official play
(B) BOS -168 to win 50 (series -170)

Filtered -- all plays must meet 'Regular' requirement and close at an O/U of 9 or higher to be an official play
none

5/2
none

[J.M. Disciple]

Only Boston today? not Monday or Friday so i think that's it.

[on3]

UPDATED for 7/2/2014
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 103-5-0; Profit: +85.5 units (NYY one game loss, -2.3 units, OAK loss -7.07 units, KC -8.5 units, COL -10.25 units, CLE -7 units)
Filtered System: 13-1-0; Profit: +10 units
5/2 chase: 1-1-0; profit: -11.80 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 71-38; 11-3
Game 2 (B) win = 17-21; 1-2; 1-1
Game 3 (C) win = 15-5; 1-1; 0-1

Labby
x-x-30-23
28-35-34-36
20-20-20-64

Labby filtered (changing to single line labby since there arent enough plays to justify a 3-line)
10-10-10-10

Regular -- all (A) plays must close at -145 or higher to be an official play
(C) BOS -160 to win 84

Filtered -- all plays must meet 'Regular' requirement and close at an O/U of 9 or higher to be an official play
none

5/2
none