[doc]

Ever since the all star break the dogs have gone to crap. They are all I bet and I am in the worst slump of my career.

That being said, if you go on this kind of losing streak on faves you lose 20-40% more easy...

[Illusion]

I usually slow down after the break because that's when dogs stop cashing on a regular basis.

[bigboydan]

Ever since the all star break the dogs have gone to crap.

now you know why i always quit at the all-star break bud

[doc]

No, I know what you guys are saying believe me I have seen the results after 4 years + of putting together what I do.

With that said the Dogs don't just stop cashing or we could all make a fortune on the Faves, Bud.

[bigboydan]

this is the time of the year where the teams start to jockey for there playoff runs. then you have to factor in the trade deadline as well.

it's just not the time of the year i wanna go taking any chances on something i know is happening, and has been for roughly 20 years. although, theres still a handful of teams out there that do wait to the very last minute

[doc]

Yea but none of that should have anything to do with Capuano getting shelled. Or the Royals dumping to 4-0 leads in back to back days to the Tigers...

Play off runs with 80 games left is a little bit of a reach as well IMO.

If you truly believe favorites will cash more often than Dogs at a high rate for the next 80 games then you should be able to cash big time by betting it.

[onlooker]

I moved this little convo out of the "Blindly betting dogs" Thread. So others can get into it, and also so that other thread dont get off track.

[bigboydan]

accoding to my numbers. the chalk will really start to cash at an extremely high rate about the las few days of august on threw.

[doc]

Wow, that is very interesting BBD. I would love to see you bet and track that... I might tail...

[onlooker]

Wow, that is very interesting BBD. I would love to see you bet and track that... I might tail...

Well we will see that in the thread Im tracking the Dogs in. If they start losing at a high rate, then Dan is correct.

Post all star break is the time to choose dogs wisely. Im on the side of Dan, that the chalk usually starts cashing more in the 2nd half of the season. Lines get tighter and dogs lose the big value they had in the 1st half.

[bigboydan]

well, you won't see me betting it bud. i just don't lay that kind of wood.

the chalk that mainly cashes is the chalk that still has a fighting chance to make the post season.

[doc]

Well once again Bud I am not a rookie to all of this but I will be much more interested after tonight in what happens in onlookers thread.

I will say that if I had numbers which showed that Chalk that had a shot at the playoffs covered much more than Dogs that did not I would bet it.

An edge is an edge, if you find one you bet it.

[bigboydan]

what will be more interesting is how the runline pans out on this one doc. now thats something you might wanna really look into, because go back and look how those numbers have done in the last 4 years.

[doc]

Yea, that would be interesting. My guess is that RL on chalk blindly would make one lose their ass, but I don't know.

[bigboydan]

at the point of the season i was refering too doc. when the chalk cashes, the runline cashes in at about an 80% clip as well. so, thats something you might wanna watch for when the time comes.

ask homedog about this one. he will tell ya it's 100% fact.

[doc]

at the point of the season i was refering too doc. when the chalk cashes, the runline cashes in at about an 80% clip as well.

So do you bet this edge Dan?

[bigboydan]

nope doc... i stop betting bases at the all-star break every year. i focus on my football capping at that time.

[imgv94]

So the squares fair alot better after August then I imagine?

[doc]

nope doc... i stop betting bases at the all-star break every year. i focus on my football capping at that time.

BBD - I hope I am not coming across as an ass, but I am very curious why you talk about an obvious edge you believe in yet you do not bet it?

[bigboydan]

because i'm focused on football, and i don't like laying the grossly overpriced chalk.

[imgv94]

I kind of understand BBD, even if you do know chalk'
is going to win,there is a small margin for error when
only betting chalk.

Lets say there are 15 games and you expect 10 or 11
chalks to win out of the 15, that still means 4 or 5
dogs are going to win.

I know BBD he is old school like my father, even if my
father expects chalk is going to win he will just not bet.

[bigboydan]

of course this only with teams in contention, and not just playing out the string.

it's been like this for about 20 years that i know of already. so why would i expect anythng differently this year to happen.

[doc]

I am just having a hard time understanding how you know of an angle that has been proven over 20 years and you don't bet it.

I am not calling you out or trying to be a prick by any means BBD, I just bet any angle that I can prove over 1-3 years and I have made a ton of money doing it.

So it is kind of unheard of to me for someone to know of an angle but they don't bet it...

[doc]

I kind of understand BBD, even if you do know chalk'
is going to win,there is a small margin for error when
only betting chalk.

Lets say there are 15 games and you expect 10 or 11
chalks to win out of the 15, that still means 4 or 5
dogs are going to win.

I know BBD he is old school like my father, even if my
father expects chalk is going to win he will just not bet.

Sorry man I don't follow what you are saying here. If you have 15 games and you know 10-11 of the faves are gonna win you would bet it unless the 4 or 5 that are gonna miss are -300 lines.

[bigboydan]

I am just having a hard time understanding how you know of an angle that has been proven over 20 years and you don't bet it.

I am not calling you out or trying to be a prick by any means BBD, I just bet any angle that I can prove over 1-3 years and I have made a ton of money doing it.

So it is kind of unheard of to me for someone to know of an angle but they don't bet it...

well bud... if you don't understand what i'm saying here. then please disregard what i'm saying