[BeatingBaseball]

For the Rangers – a big test of character. For the Cards - a free shot at virtually ending the Series.

Texas needs this one to stay alive and La Russa needs to get away with David Freese defensively for only 2 more W’s.

Of big interest to me will be to see if all the heat Ron Kulpa took for his blown call at 1st base last night will in any way affect him behind the plate in this one. La Russa//Duncan are going to be very attentive to any indication that he’s in any way making it up to the Rangers for his mistake. They know that deep down Kulpa would prefer that this series get tied up again – that the conversation move past last night’s game being the turning point. They’ll be on him early from the dugout on any borderline calls that don’t go their way. Don’t be surprised if one of them gets ejected by him tonight – more likely Duncan than La Russa.

Sure a lot of pressure on Derek Holland facing this very potent, very RH lineup tonight – esp with a fairly short bullpen behind him. He has the big 4 seam FB (95-96) but not always great command/control - had a WS disaster in relief last year walking 3 Giants in a row. He pitches up in the zone more than anyone we’ve seen so far in this Series. Also he’ll often try to get Sliders in on RHers – wouldn’t recommend trying that with Pujols - and he better not leave any of those over the plate to Freese, Craig et al – esp in that ball park.

With Jackson and Holland out there it’s going to be Sliders galore. Jackson is almost pure FB – SL to RHers. He also throws a lot of them to LHers - along with his Change. The SL is really Edwin’s out pitch to all hitters. Holland works much like Jackson except the other way around – to LHers his FB/SL – to RHers FB/SL along with some Changes and Curves.

I expect La Russa's lineup will again be very aggressive vs a hard throwing lefty - swinging at a lot of first pitch FBs. They’ve been doing that for 2 months and it’s worked out great - even though with a guy like Holland I think you’re often better off working the count. But you can’t argue with success. They’ve been jumping all over them and getting early leads almost every time out.

Rangers are again a little over priced at -1.70 take +1.60 – but not as badly as last night. They’re again a better value on the RL at +1.15. For me, I’ll have some STL +1.60 to hedge my Series bet on the Rangers and take an equivalent amount on the Rangers minus 1.5 Runs +1.15. If STL wins tonight or Texas wins by 2 I take down some profit on the game. The best overall outcome would be Texas by 2 – but if it’s worst case scenario tonight (Texas by 1) at least my Series bet is alive and well.

Enjoy the game. Not much baseball left.

[No coincidences]

Good post BB. At this point, it might be better to take the Rangers series price tonight at +140 instead of messing around with this game. Obviously, if they lose tonight, it's virtually over. If they win, though, you're back in good shape for either taking StL Game 5 or waiting to see if you can get a good arb. opportunity with the series price again.

[BigDofBA]

I find it very funny people still doubt St. Louis.

Everyone thought the series was over after Motte blew the save in game 2. I'm not sure why people would think this. This team has been facing adversity for over a month.

The Cardinals lost a heart breaker to Philly on a pinch hit three run homer in the 8th inning and were down 2-1 with the daunting task of beating Halladay on the road in a game five. Having the World Series tied at 1-1 wasn't a back breaker.

I kind of feel like Texas wins this game but I don't feel like they should be as big of a favorite as they are.

St. Louis has been the better team this series. After three games, Texas has only had the lead for half an inning and that was the 9th inning of game two.

I've had a good time just watching my team play and rooting them on.

[Paradroid]

do do do do it food time

[BeatingBaseball]

Holland/Maddux had a great game plan and the kid executed it perfectly - pitched all those RHers backwards tonight - used his breaking pitches to set up the FB - looked like Steve Carlton out there. A Michaelangelo.