[BeatingBaseball]

Love it when there’s only 1 game to handicap - time to look at everything. Maybe too much – great chance to over analyze.

Line - Gm 3 opened at TEX -1.73. Got all the way up to TEX -1.86. Now at TEX -1.80 with over 58% of the public play on the Rangers. Total 9.5 across the board. TEX -1.5 Runs + 1.14.

Implied Win % - The -1.73 was a .634 break even percentage for the chalk players. The current -1.80 takes it up to .643. The +1.14 RL implies .467.

Team dynamic – Many expect that the huge turn of events in the 9th inning of Gm 2 will prove the pivot point in the Cards’ downfall – the stroke of midnight for Cinderella - but I don’t think this team will fall apart. Granted it was a tough one – but the STL Dead Men Walking have survived numerous other generally fatal shots both down the stretch and in the playoffs (see 6th Inn Philly Gm 1; 1st Inn Philly Gm 2). This is a special club. I think they can turn the page on it. No doubt it has pumped up the Rangers but for Tony’s Troops it’s just 1-1.

Season numbers – In baseball you usually are what the season record says you are - but the Cards have played at a premium to their overall numbers for two months now. And even without adjusting for the September transformation - they finished the season with a road record identical to the home. 45-36 - white or gray - .556 road ball over 81 games – strong - and they’re better than that right now. They’ve just won 4 of their last 5 road games at Philly and Milwaukee. But -

Texas was great at home - 52-29 - the top home scoring team in MLB this year. They averaged an ungodly 6.2 runs per game (ave. 9.6 hits per home game). They won at home against average opponents at .642 – and won 11 of their last 12 home games.

Pitchers – STL RHer Lohse – TEX LHer Harrison.
Pretty comparable other than L/R. Lohse a big guy 6-2, 210 - Harrison even bigger 6-4, 230 – but neither is overpowering – both low 90’s – neither can survive up in the zone – esp Lohse.

Regular season records were incredibly identical – 30 starts each, 180+ innings each, 14 Ws each and both with exactly a 3.39 ERA. But Lohse has struggled post season 0-2, 7.45 - whereas Harrison 1-0 in 2 playoff starts with a 4.22. Stuff-wise:

Lohse - 5.30 Ks per 9 - 2.01 BB per 9 - 0.76 HR per 9.
FB (Sinker at 89-92), Slider, Change, rare Curve.
I’d call him a Change specialist but he’s on the Duncan model of pounding Sinkers at the knees in and out early in the count - then his out pitch – SL to Rhers/Chng to Lhers.
Low 40’s GB%.

Harrrison – 6.11 Ks per 9 - 2.76 BB per 9 - 0.63 HR per 9
Strikes out a few more/walks a few more - a little less location dependent, likes his 4 seamer vs the slower bats
2 FBs (4 seamer 93, 2 sm Sinker a little less), Slider, Change 83, Curve 78
Some say he throws Cutter - but looks more like a Slider
He uses the 2 FBs and SL to LHers – no Curve, no Chng
Out pitch to LH is that SL (ahead 0-2, 1-2, 2-2)
Doesn’t trust the SL to Rhers – 2 FB, Curve, Chng – Curves early in count
FB centric when he’s behind – esp 4 seamer.
Big improvement this year in BBs per 9 – and pretty good ground ball % (48).
Was left off playoff roster last year – 2011’s 14 Ws his best ever.

Some decent video on Lohse/Harrison and their stuff:
http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=13453077

Both lineups will be looking to hit the FB early in the count – thigh high/belt high and mistakes over – take the low FBs - make them get it up or get in hitter’s counts, cripple counts.

TEX was 70-45 (.609) vs RH starters in reg season - lost to Verlander, Carp.
STL went 19-20 (.487) vs LH starters - just beat C.J. Wilson.

Injuries - Hamilton’s the most significant - the infamous Gilmore’s Groin – his inguinal ring may be facing the blade after the Series - still in the 3 spot - but he probably shouldn’t be. Advantage Cardinals. Cruz (oblique) and Beltre (knee) also will play. Same with Albert (wrist, ankle, tweaked ego), Holliday (finger), Schumacher (oblique) available.

Plate umpire – Alphonso Marquez – MLB since ’99 – but don’t recall ever noticing him – so probably pretty good/consistent. Bio says he was born in Mexico (wouldn’t want him back there if I was against Garcia).
34 plate jobs in 2011– somewhat to the Under (14o-19u-1) overall – But he was 8o-8u-1 in non-extreme matchups (Totals of 8.5 to 10). 6.4 BBs per game - 14.4 K’s per game - 8.5 runs per game.
Overall stats - somewhat of a hitter’s ump
Stats also appear fair to road clubs - home teams 18-16 but lost money.

The Play – Texas should win the game - but laying -1.80 is prohibitive. Rangers don’t win this matchup more than 64 times in 100. Their average opponent playing in Texas played there at .358 - I figure the Cards match up here almost 100 points better - about .450. The line value is in the Cards +1.70 (only a .370 break even %). I still like Texas to win the Series - a lot of value in the +1.10 I got there after Gm 1 - but anyone liking Texas today is better off on the RL at +1.14 (breaking even at .467).

Have a feeing Albert will have a big night if they pitch to him. Harrison can get a little frisky challenging guys.

[Avenger]

thanks for the great write-up.

[7secondsOrLess]

prohibitive lmao

[BeatingBaseball]

thanks for the great write-up.

Thanks for the points, Av. You're a gentleman and a scholar.