2009 MLB Preview: Chicago Cubs
Chicago Cubs should cruise to NL Central title
Sent home early from the postseason last October when the Dodgers swept them in LDS play, the Cubs are out for blood this year as the National League favorites.
No doubt, the Cubs have questions and concerns entering the season. But they have far fewer of each than a good 90% of the MLB teams at this stage.
If the projections hold up, Lou Piniella and this team could be the talk of the Windy City for decades to come. Along with the Angels, the Cubs should have a fairly easy path to a division title in 2009. They boast an everyday lineup that combines power and speed, and their defense should be above average. A couple of questions linger on the pitching side of the equation, but then, I’ve got at least two questions about every mound at this time, and Chicago’s concerns aren’t near as bad as at least 20 other MLB squads.
So I’ll take a little extra time here to talk more about the simulations and just how they’re set up. Stats are entered for every player, based primarily on three-year averages and projections here and there for some older players dropping off and younger players improving, pretty straight forward there. Where it gets more subjective is when I make determinations for ‘best case’ and ‘worst case’ scenarios.
For example, with the Cubs it went like this:
Oh, and the simulations included nothing about a goat.
OFFENSE / DEFENSE
With seven of their nine regulars back, I’m expecting this offense to be even better than 2008 when they topped the NL with 855 runs (5.31 per game) while leading the league in on-base (.354) and slugging (.443). That’s an OPS of nearly .800, and anytime a team can breach the .780 mark, you’re good, very good.
Of the two regulars at the end of their season that aren’t around any longer, Mark DeRosa and Jim Edmonds, only DeRosa would be much of a concern for me right now just because he was so damn versatile. Chicago did go out and sign Aaron Miles who can play the middle infield, but as of this time they don’t have anyone who could spell Aramis Ramirez at third if he was to miss meaningful time.
But that’s it, the only weakness I can see, if you really want to call that a weakness.
According to Piniella, he’s looking to get Miles 400 AB in 2009. Sweet Lou also expects Mike Fontenot to get 400 AB this year, so I’m guessing that math really wasn’t Piniella’s strongest subject in school. For both of them to get 400 AB, it’s going to mean that either Ryan Theriot at short or Ramirez at third, or both, will miss significant time.
Right now, Fontenot and Theriot should be the normal middle of the diamond for the Cubs. Assuming they both stay healthy and don’t forget how to hit and field, my projections for Miles have him at about 300 AB.
Derrek Lee rounds out the infield at first.
The outfield is set with Alfonso Soriano in left, and leading off in the batting order, Kosuke Fukudome in center and newcomer Milton Bradley in right. Fukudome could be on a short leash in center, especially with Reed Johnson waiting in the wings and having a defensive edge in my opinion over Fukudome. All signs point to a Fukudome-Johnson platoon to start the year in center.
Bradley adds some of the punch that was lost with both DeRosa and Edmonds gone. He’s off a very productive season with the Rangers posting a .999 OPS, 22 homers and 77 RBI in 126 games. Probably can’t count on him for more than 125 games again this year, which isn’t exactly going out on a limb once you realize he’s played more than 126 games just once in his career that now spans nine seasons.
I’ve mentioned several times before that I really, really, really don’t like the Cubs, with my distaste going back to 1962. Only reason I mention that again is that I really, really, really love good catchers. So it’s a bittersweet pill for me to swallow when I see the Cubs on TV or in person and watch Soto behind the plate. What a stud! His backup will be Paul Bako, who I don’t expect to see in a Chicago boxscore more than 20 times this year.
PITCHING
The Cubs could’ve won 85 games last year if their offense was teamed with average pitching. But they didn’t have average pitching at all, sporting one of the better overall groups on the mound in the NL, good enough to finish second with a 3.87 ERA, first in fewest hits allowed and first in most opposing hitters that went back to the dugout with a K on their linescore.
With one notable exception from their ending roster last season, it’s the same pitching corps returning this time around. That one exception is Kerry Wood who handled the closing chores, picking up 34 of the team’s 44 saves. The task this spring is to find Wood’s replacement, with the battle between Carlos Marmol and Kevin Gregg.
Marmol has to be the favorite at this time, if only because he’s proven to be a very reliable arm in the pen for Piniella the last couple of years while Gregg is the new fish in the pond after coming over from Florida during the winter. Either way, it’s a strong duo for the back of the pen, and really no more of a question mark than last spring when everyone wondered how Wood would perform in the position.
The Cubs also lost setup/middle relief arm Bobby Howry, though Cub fans won’t miss his 5.35 ERA in relief last season. How the rest of the bullpen shakes out in front of Marmol and Gregg will depend largely on exactly how Piniella and pitching coach Larry Rothschild settle their rotation. Luis Vizcaino, acquired from the Rockies for Jason Marquis, and left-hander Neal Cotts figure into the pen somewhere.
The front three of the rotation should already be set in ink with Carlos Zambrano, Ryan Dempster and Ted Lilly back. That trio made 97 starts, with the Cubs going 64-33 in those 97 games. Dempster’s solid campaign was the biggest surprise as the Canuck set new personal bests in wins (17) and ERA (2.96). So he will have the pressure of trying to repeat after so many years of not reaching his potential.
The final two slots are a bit of a mystery right now. Chicago hopes they can keep Harden healthy to make 25 starts, the same number he combined to make for the A’s and Cubs a year ago which were the second-most he’s made in a single season over his injury-plagued career. Assuming he is healthy coming out of Spring Training, it leaves Sean Marshall and a pair of former Notre Dame standouts, Aaron Heilman and Jeff Samardzija, fighting for the last spot in the order. Given Harden’s health history, we’ll probably see all three of them get starts during the season. The two that don’t get starting assignments should find roles in the pen unless the club decides it would be best to let Samardzija go back to Triple-A and work as a starter there.
SCHEDULE
No question, but the Cubs have the most favorable schedule of any team in their division. And with the team they have on paper, they should be ready to take full advantage of the gift the schedule maker gave them this year. They have a tough Opening Week, based on 2008 standings, but that’s it.
Chicago blazed through the simulations averaging 90.6 wins in the five runs, pushing it as high as 94 and coming in as low as 85. If I was a betting man, and I am, I’d project the books to come out with a break mark in the 93½-95 range. One of my golden rules in futures wagering is always – ALWAYS – take the Under on a mark of 95 or higher, either that or just leave it alone. The Cubs could win 100, wouldn’t shock me at all, but I won’t bet the house on any team doing it.
Chicago is the odds-on favorite to win the NL Pennant at The Greek where they are drawing a +265 price right now, a full 100 ahead of the Mets. Assuming they win their first NL flag since 1945, the Cubs are +825 to win their first Series in 101 years. That price puts them No. 3 in line behind the Yankees and Red Sox.
Sent home early from the postseason last October when the Dodgers swept them in LDS play, the Cubs are out for blood this year as the National League favorites.
No doubt, the Cubs have questions and concerns entering the season. But they have far fewer of each than a good 90% of the MLB teams at this stage.
If the projections hold up, Lou Piniella and this team could be the talk of the Windy City for decades to come. Along with the Angels, the Cubs should have a fairly easy path to a division title in 2009. They boast an everyday lineup that combines power and speed, and their defense should be above average. A couple of questions linger on the pitching side of the equation, but then, I’ve got at least two questions about every mound at this time, and Chicago’s concerns aren’t near as bad as at least 20 other MLB squads.
So I’ll take a little extra time here to talk more about the simulations and just how they’re set up. Stats are entered for every player, based primarily on three-year averages and projections here and there for some older players dropping off and younger players improving, pretty straight forward there. Where it gets more subjective is when I make determinations for ‘best case’ and ‘worst case’ scenarios.
For example, with the Cubs it went like this:
- Best Case: Rich Harden makes 28 starts; Worst Case: Harden makes 10 starts
- Best Case: Geovany Soto builds on his phenomenal rookie campaign, hits .290 with 28 HR and 95 RBI; Worst Case: Soto suffers the dreaded sophomore jinx and falls off to .260, 14 HR and 60 RBI
- Best Case: Carlos Marmol takes to the closer’s role like a duck to water, posts up a 2.50 ERA, 0.95 WHIP; Worst Case: Neither Marmol nor Kevin Gregg can handle it and combine for a 3.85 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 15 blown saves between them
Oh, and the simulations included nothing about a goat.
OFFENSE / DEFENSE
With seven of their nine regulars back, I’m expecting this offense to be even better than 2008 when they topped the NL with 855 runs (5.31 per game) while leading the league in on-base (.354) and slugging (.443). That’s an OPS of nearly .800, and anytime a team can breach the .780 mark, you’re good, very good.
Of the two regulars at the end of their season that aren’t around any longer, Mark DeRosa and Jim Edmonds, only DeRosa would be much of a concern for me right now just because he was so damn versatile. Chicago did go out and sign Aaron Miles who can play the middle infield, but as of this time they don’t have anyone who could spell Aramis Ramirez at third if he was to miss meaningful time.
But that’s it, the only weakness I can see, if you really want to call that a weakness.
According to Piniella, he’s looking to get Miles 400 AB in 2009. Sweet Lou also expects Mike Fontenot to get 400 AB this year, so I’m guessing that math really wasn’t Piniella’s strongest subject in school. For both of them to get 400 AB, it’s going to mean that either Ryan Theriot at short or Ramirez at third, or both, will miss significant time.
Right now, Fontenot and Theriot should be the normal middle of the diamond for the Cubs. Assuming they both stay healthy and don’t forget how to hit and field, my projections for Miles have him at about 300 AB.
Derrek Lee rounds out the infield at first.
The outfield is set with Alfonso Soriano in left, and leading off in the batting order, Kosuke Fukudome in center and newcomer Milton Bradley in right. Fukudome could be on a short leash in center, especially with Reed Johnson waiting in the wings and having a defensive edge in my opinion over Fukudome. All signs point to a Fukudome-Johnson platoon to start the year in center.
Bradley adds some of the punch that was lost with both DeRosa and Edmonds gone. He’s off a very productive season with the Rangers posting a .999 OPS, 22 homers and 77 RBI in 126 games. Probably can’t count on him for more than 125 games again this year, which isn’t exactly going out on a limb once you realize he’s played more than 126 games just once in his career that now spans nine seasons.
I’ve mentioned several times before that I really, really, really don’t like the Cubs, with my distaste going back to 1962. Only reason I mention that again is that I really, really, really love good catchers. So it’s a bittersweet pill for me to swallow when I see the Cubs on TV or in person and watch Soto behind the plate. What a stud! His backup will be Paul Bako, who I don’t expect to see in a Chicago boxscore more than 20 times this year.
PITCHING
The Cubs could’ve won 85 games last year if their offense was teamed with average pitching. But they didn’t have average pitching at all, sporting one of the better overall groups on the mound in the NL, good enough to finish second with a 3.87 ERA, first in fewest hits allowed and first in most opposing hitters that went back to the dugout with a K on their linescore.
With one notable exception from their ending roster last season, it’s the same pitching corps returning this time around. That one exception is Kerry Wood who handled the closing chores, picking up 34 of the team’s 44 saves. The task this spring is to find Wood’s replacement, with the battle between Carlos Marmol and Kevin Gregg.
Marmol has to be the favorite at this time, if only because he’s proven to be a very reliable arm in the pen for Piniella the last couple of years while Gregg is the new fish in the pond after coming over from Florida during the winter. Either way, it’s a strong duo for the back of the pen, and really no more of a question mark than last spring when everyone wondered how Wood would perform in the position.
The Cubs also lost setup/middle relief arm Bobby Howry, though Cub fans won’t miss his 5.35 ERA in relief last season. How the rest of the bullpen shakes out in front of Marmol and Gregg will depend largely on exactly how Piniella and pitching coach Larry Rothschild settle their rotation. Luis Vizcaino, acquired from the Rockies for Jason Marquis, and left-hander Neal Cotts figure into the pen somewhere.
The front three of the rotation should already be set in ink with Carlos Zambrano, Ryan Dempster and Ted Lilly back. That trio made 97 starts, with the Cubs going 64-33 in those 97 games. Dempster’s solid campaign was the biggest surprise as the Canuck set new personal bests in wins (17) and ERA (2.96). So he will have the pressure of trying to repeat after so many years of not reaching his potential.
The final two slots are a bit of a mystery right now. Chicago hopes they can keep Harden healthy to make 25 starts, the same number he combined to make for the A’s and Cubs a year ago which were the second-most he’s made in a single season over his injury-plagued career. Assuming he is healthy coming out of Spring Training, it leaves Sean Marshall and a pair of former Notre Dame standouts, Aaron Heilman and Jeff Samardzija, fighting for the last spot in the order. Given Harden’s health history, we’ll probably see all three of them get starts during the season. The two that don’t get starting assignments should find roles in the pen unless the club decides it would be best to let Samardzija go back to Triple-A and work as a starter there.
SCHEDULE
No question, but the Cubs have the most favorable schedule of any team in their division. And with the team they have on paper, they should be ready to take full advantage of the gift the schedule maker gave them this year. They have a tough Opening Week, based on 2008 standings, but that’s it.
- Open with six on road at Houston and at Milwaukee and at Milwaukee, their closest challengers in the NL Central last season; in fact 11 of their first 32 games are in Houston or Milwaukee
- 16 of first 18 games vs. NL Central foes
- 28-23 (Home-Away) through May; 66-65 though August
- 42-38 (Home-Away vs NL Central. Once again, let me know when the Yankees or Red Sox have four extra home games against AL East opponents.
- 3-6 (Home-Away) vs. San Diego, 9-6 vs AL opponents. Advantage: Cubs
Chicago blazed through the simulations averaging 90.6 wins in the five runs, pushing it as high as 94 and coming in as low as 85. If I was a betting man, and I am, I’d project the books to come out with a break mark in the 93½-95 range. One of my golden rules in futures wagering is always – ALWAYS – take the Under on a mark of 95 or higher, either that or just leave it alone. The Cubs could win 100, wouldn’t shock me at all, but I won’t bet the house on any team doing it.
Chicago is the odds-on favorite to win the NL Pennant at The Greek where they are drawing a +265 price right now, a full 100 ahead of the Mets. Assuming they win their first NL flag since 1945, the Cubs are +825 to win their first Series in 101 years. That price puts them No. 3 in line behind the Yankees and Red Sox.
