Originally Posted by
toddorts
Um, no. Even in the most lopsided of matchups in baseball, the favorite is still only going to win about 75% of the time. And those are really rare. Most matchups fall in the 53-60% range. Betting baseball is all about finding value. I may think that the Yankees are going to win a game, but I'll also figure out what the probability of them winning is, and that's how I set my own line. If the opposing team is getting better odds than my line indicates that they should be getting, then I'll bet on the team that I think isn't the likely winner. Over the long haul, that is how you make money. Just trying to pick winners and only betting when your projected winner is at a good price will still make you money, but your total profit will be much less over time, because you're passing on lots of dogs that you should be taking because of their value.