Hey all,
I'm looking really hard at two prop lines for Albert Pujols tonight:
1) Over 2.5 hits, runs, RBIs (+105)
Breaking down the stats this looks to have a huge lean in favor of Pujols. Pujols has a career .545 BA vs Gallardo (6 of 11 with 3 HRs and 7 RBIs). He is also hitting .414 in the playoffs this year (12 of 29 with 5 runs scored and 6 RBIs) and is coming off a monster game where he went 4 for 5 with 3 runs scored and 5 RBIs. Now he is coming home where he has hit .042 points higher than on the road this season and .074 points higher at night compared to day games. My only worry is that the Brewers might intentionally walk him a lot tonight to try and mitigate his impact on the outcome.
2) More hits, runs, and RBIs than Ryan Braun (-130)
While I just laid out the favorable stats for Pujols, Braun's are considerably less impressive. He has a career .227 BA vs Carpenter (5 of 22 with 1 HR and 2 RBIs). He is batting .036 points lower on the road than at home and .079 points lower at night than during the day. He has a lifetime BA of .225 against the Cardinals and .152 at Busch Stadium. All of that being said, he is having a stellar postseason hitting .500 with 7 runs scored and 8 RBIs and he does have a career BA of .414 in the postseason.
Like I said, I am really considering both of these plays, but I wanted to get some input from everybody (especially on the intentional walk angle). What do you think?