1. #1
    Ganchrow
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    July 4 Ganchalysis

    Washington 52% - Patterson left his last start with a "tired arm" after 3 innings. It's not clear what that was about, but it's not a good sign, and until he puts together a string of quality outings, his dominance of last season should be ignored. Olsen has been sharp and consistent of late, but this could be a trouble spot for him. The Washington offense's recent resurgence is likely not a mirage, and they might have another productive day.

  2. #2
    bigboydan
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    i had a small lean toward florida in this game myself, but will be passing

    you have anything on the Reds/Brewes game ganchrow ?

  3. #3
    Ganchrow
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    Cincinnati 51% - The outcome of this game rests very heavily on the quality and duration of Arroyo's start. The Cincinnati pen is in shambles, and it is likely to get hit if it is exposed to the Milwaukee offense for any length of time. Arroyo, however, is very capable of throwing 8 or 9 dominant innings. The Milwaukee pitching situation is similar, but less starkly contrasted. The pen is iffy, but not as bad as Cincinnati's, and Davis has a likelihood of excellence, but not as great as Arroyo. For this game, the situation is modestly promising for Davis, and somewhat less so for Arroyo, conferring an edge to Milwaukee.

  4. #4
    Ganchrow
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    White Sox 60% - Although Contreras has been off since his return from the DL, his problems are likely not fundamental, and he should return to a more effective state soon, especially considering the reports by the pitching coach from a bullpen session he had recently. Lopez, however, should also finish out the first half on a strong note in this game. The White Sox have a lineup edge here, but there is a decent chance that Lopez will match Contreras' outing.

  5. #5
    bigboydan
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    anything on texas/toronto ganchrow ?

    i like texas tonight, and i'd like to get your thoughts on it.

  6. #6
    Ganchrow
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    Cleveland 53% - The Cleveland pen is in a dangerous spot for this game. If Westbrook can go deep, Cleveland's prospects of winning improve dramatically. Westbrook's high degree of volatility benefits Cleveland here, because if his sinker is working, the strong part of the Yankees' lineup will be neutralized. Chacon has been off of his game for a while now, and going into Cleveland facing some tough hitters will not help change that.

  7. #7
    Ganchrow
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    St. Louis 63% - The Atlanta pen has been better of late, but they are still vulnerable, and that is especially important with Thomson going, as he does not tend to go deep into games. Carpenter has dominated mediocre lineups recently, and the same should happen here vs Atlanta.

  8. #8
    Ganchrow
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    Toronto 58% - This game has a very high degree of uncertainty to it. Toronto has had a strong offense the whole season, particularly vs lefties. However they did not do well yesterday vs a struggling Texas lefty, and tonight presents a similar scenario. Koronka made an adjustment to his mechanics for his last start, and saw good results. His likely performance here is very uncertain. Statistically, he is likely to have an off night. Halladay, while enjoying a return to his former Cy Young form, has struggled both recently and in Texas his entire career. Statistically, however, he is likely to have a strong game. So much uncertainty favors Texas.

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