[Ganchrow]

White Sox 61% - Maddux has taken another clear step down from his skill level of the past couple of years, but he is at least consistent, and he is likely to avoid getting shelled here. That is significant, because Vazquez always has a real chance of getting hit hard, even by poor offenses. In this spot, however, he is more likely than usual to have a decent outing.

Texas 56% - Buchholz has had an extremely high degree of volatility this year. While he is likely to get hit here, that likelihood is starkly competing with the Texas lineup's likelihood of having another weak game. Along the same lines, both Wasdin and the Houston lineup are likely to have bad performances. This adds up to a high degree of uncertainty and a low confidence factor for the outcome.

[bigboydan]

anything on the mets/yankees game ganchrow ?

[Ganchrow]

Yankees 63% - Despite not having Delgado available, the Mets' lineup will be able to hit Johnson if he has an off day. If he doesn't, Delgado's presence wouldn't have made much of a difference. Trachsel is likely to have a mediocre outing, but if Johnson does as well, the Mets will have an advantage. The Mets have a pen edge here, as the Yankees' pen is in a somewhat extended state. The Yankees will be relying on a strong start from Johnson, which is likely, but not at all a guarantee.

[Ganchrow]

Angels 52% - Escobar is the big question mark for this game. He has had problems this year, but this start is more promising than most for him as far as the likelihood of a quality start is concerned. Hendrickson is likely to have a solid outing as well. The Dodgers rate a lineup edge, while the Angels rate a bullpen edge, rendering this game very even overall.

[Ganchrow]

Boston 62% - The big question for this game is how well Moehler will throw. He has been solid recently at home this year, but he does not have great stuff and he will clearly be vulnerable vs the Boston lineup. In this game he is likely to have a mediocre start at best. Wakefield has been very consistent, and he is likely to throw his typical game of 7 innings and 3 runs, which benefits Boston a bit as it somewhat neutralizes the effectiveness of the strong Florida lineup. The excellent Boston closers will be rested for this game, although if it goes into extra innings, Florida will have a significant advantage.

Cleveland 53% - This is an interesting game with a very high degree of uncertainty to it. Lee is throwing well right now, and he is likely to have another good game here. However, he is also prone to giving up home runs, and facing the Cincinnati lineup in this park puts him at great risk of giving up a few. Behind Lee, the Cleveland pen is awful, and another implosion similar to what happened yesterday would not be a surprise at all. Mays has been terrible for a long time, but he claims to have made adjustments that have made him better. While that is unlikely in the long run, his last start vs the strong Mets lineup was effective, so in this situation he may well have another quality start.

[Ganchrow]

Atlanta 64% - Leo Mazzone has undoubtedly been able to enhance the performances of many pitchers over the years, but it's hard to imagine he will have any effect at all on Russ Ortiz. The only indication that Ortiz has anything left in the tank is that Baltimore is willing to give him a shot, which presumably they wouldn't be doing unless they had a somewhat legitimate reason to think it would be a good idea. Hudson's problems this year are difficult to figure, but he is likely to have a quality start here vs the Baltimore lineup, which is a notch less powerful than those he has faced in his last few starts. The Atlanta offense, however, is a liability in this game. They have not produced well at all for a while now, and they are not likely to in the near future. Their prospects vs Ortiz are difficult to ascertain, but they are likely to have the upper hand for once in this game.

Tampa Bay 59% - The Washington lineup is not producing at all, and they are not likely to here either vs Shields, who is likely to bounce back with a strong outing. Hernandez has been inconsistent at best this year, and the Tampa Bay lineup, which is stronger now than it was in the first parts of the season, should be able to get to him at least a bit, if not more.

Detroit 69% - Gorzelanny was generally sharp in the minors, but coming up to face the strong Detroit lineup in his first start is not likely to yield similar results. Bonderman was probably the most dominant pitcher in the majors in June, and while he is sure to come back down to earth soon, this is still likely to be a quality start. Detroit will have a big edge in the bullpen as well, as the Pittsburgh pen is in a very extended state right now. With a substantial egde in starting pitching, the bullpen, and the lineup, Detroit rates a major edge for the game overall.