[Ganchrow]

Detroit 65% - Both starters have question marks for this game. Verlander has been less sharp of late, and he has a minor soreness problem with his finger on his pitching hand. Pettitte has been underperforming for most of the year. For this game, Verlander has a higher likelihood of throwing a strong start. Pettitte's problems are likely to be real, either due to some kind of injury or age-related skill erosion. Facing the Detroit lineup will not give him a break. Verlander, on the other hand, is likely to have more dominating outings soon. Detroit again has a bullpen edge that could well factor in significantly here.

Yankees 63% - Wang has been very effective at home, and he is likely to throw another strong start vs the weak Atlanta lineup. Smoltz was hurt in his last start and reports concerning his condition now are mixed. That, combined with his inconsistency this year when he was healthy, combined with the bad Atlanta pen, does not bode well for Atlanta overall. The Yankees have a very extended bullpen right now however, and Wang's performance greatly affects the expected outcomes of the game. If Wang does not go deep into the game, the Yankees will be in trouble. He is likely to do so, but there is a small chance he will leave the game early.

[Ganchrow]

Milwaukee 60% - Having an umpire with a "big" strike zone will be a benefit to Marmol, as one of his biggest problems in general is control. Bush has been throwing very well and he should have another strong outing here. Milwaukee has a small to moderate edge in all areas for this game, giving them a substantial edge for the game overall.

[Ganchrow]

White Sox 62% - Maholm has a higher than usual likelihood of throwing a good game here. This clashes with the White Sox' strong lineup's likelihood of having a good day, but Pittsburgh benefits slightly from it anyway. Garcia is likely to throw a strong game as well. Pittsburgh will have a small bullpen edge. While the White Sox have major edges in both starting pitching and lineup for this game, those edges are of a somewhat lesser magnitude than normal.

Boston 52% - This game has a very high degree of uncertainty to it. The emotional impact of Martinez returning to Boston and facing his old team is difficult to ascertain. He is likely to throw a good game here. Our estimation is that the situation will benefit him. Beckett's expected performance also has a high degree of uncertainty, for more traditional reasons. He has been prone to getting hit at times this year, and while he is likely to throw a good game here, he also has a modest chance of getting hit. Boston has a small lineup edge as well.

Toronto 64% - This game has a high degree of uncertainty to it and a relatively low confidence factor. Lilly has been very effective most of the year, but has been inconsistent this year and in his career as well, and that benefits Washington a bit here. Hill has had much better outings at home than he has on the road, and he is likely to get hit here. However, he does have a modest chance at throwing a quality start. The bullpens are roughly even for this game.

[bigboydan]

anything on the seattle/d'backs game ganchrow ?

[moses millsap]

Got a % for the big game of the night? (Devil Rays/Marlins)

[Ganchrow]

Got a % for the big game of the night? (Devil Rays/Marlins)

Florida 63%, sorry no write-up.

[moses millsap]

Thanks.

[Ganchrow]

Seattle 63% - Hernandez is likely to have a quality start here, as his recent performances have not been as bad as they seem in the stat lines. Gonzalez' expected performance has a high degree of uncertainty, but he was only mediocre in the minors, and he will be vulnerable here vs the hot Seattle lineup in a hitters' park. Along with their edges in starting pitching and lineups, Seattle will have a modest bullpen edge as well.

[Willie Bee]

Ganch, you got anything in that math of yours that might suggest when my beloved Astros might stop sucking pond water?

[Ganchrow]

Angels 55% - This game has a high degree of uncertainty due to conflicting statistical likelihoods. Both Santana and the Colorado lineup are likely to have strong games, and both Francis and the Angels' lineup are likely to have weak ones. The Angels will have a minor edge in bullpens for this game. However, if the game is close in the later innings, the Colorado edge with their lineup will factor in more than in the earlier innings.

[darkghost]

Is that all that your crystal ball has to say for tonight? or are there more divinations forthcoming? (I got leans on SD & SF)

Thanks for all your responses. Great stuff BTW.

[Ganchrow]

San Diego 52% - The most important factor for this game will be the bullpen disparity between the 2 teams. San Diego has a very deep and capable pen, and Oakland's is very thin, and will be likely be even moreso without the availability of Calero. Oakland will have modest edges in both starting pitching and lineups, but they will be vulnerable if Blanton comes out. He is likely to throw a very good game, however.

[Ganchrow]

Texas 56% - This is a tough spot for San Francisco. Lowry is likely to get hit, and he reportedly has been having problems with his velocity. Rheinecker is likely to have a quality start, and the Texas pen, which is usually a significant weakness, will be as little of a liability for this game as it can be.

[RickySteve]

Texas pen, which is usually a significant weakness

?

Texas' bullpen is a significant strength not weakness. Ranger relievers have a .692 OPS allowed, behind only Detroit in the AL. Factor in Texas plays in the richest scoring environment in baseball and they may very well have the best bullpen in the league.