[Ganchrow]

Detroit 58% - Clemens is likely to throw a strong game here. Robertson is likely to throw a quality start as well, but also to give up a few runs. Detroit has a major bullpen edge, and while the game is likely to be close with the starters in, Detroit will have a substantial edge when the bullpens get involved.

Baltimore 54% - Both starters are likely to have strong outings, but each have a small likelihood of getting hit hard. The lineups and bullpens are likely to rate roughly even.

Yankees 58% - Both starters are likely to get hit and leave the game early, and both bullpens are in bad shape right now. The Yankees rate a modest lineup edge, and while Ramirez has a greater likelihood of getting deeper into the game than Wright, Wright has a higher likelihood of a good outing. All this confers a modest overall edge to the Yankees, but with a high degree of uncertainty and a low confidence factor.

Boston 53% - This game features 2 similar lineups and starting pitchers. The Mets rate a significant and important edge in the pen, however. The expected performances of both starters have a high degree of uncertainty.

White Sox 62% - The powerful White Sox lineup will lose one of their big hitters with no DH here, and that somewhat mitigates their major edge in that area. Snell will still be very vulnerable to getting hit, however. The bullpens do rate roughly even. Buehrle is more likely than usual to get hit here, and his slightly high degree of volatility this year benefits Pittsburgh in this game.

Florida 53% - Kazmir has been very sharp this year, and he is likely to have another good outing, but it is also likely to be less dominant than usual. Nolasco on the other hand, is likely to have a stronger outing than usual. Tampa Bay has a small bullpen edge here, but it is not likely to factor in significantly unless the game goes into extra innings.

Toronto 64% - This game has a moderate degree of uncertainty to it. It is a somewhat dangerous spot for Burnett, although he is likely to throw another quality start. Ortiz is likely to get hit. The Toronto pen has had a high degree of volatility which benefits Washington here.

[moses millsap]

Boston 53% - This game features 2 similar lineups and starting pitchers. The Mets rate a significant and important edge in the pen, however. The expected performances of both starters have a high degree of uncertainty.

So, the Sox are priced 15c too high in your estimation? I think with Curt and Josh going next for them in the rotation, the bullpen isn't as bad off as I originally thought.

[Ganchrow]

So, the Sox are priced 15c too high in your estimation? I think with Curt and Josh going next for them in the rotation, the bullpen isn't as bad off as I originally thought.

yes, we do think the Mets at +120 has a small amount of value

[bigboydan]

the baltimore/philly game was rained out tonight ganchrow.

any thoughts on the cubs/brewers game ?

[moses millsap]

any thoughts on the cubs/brewers game ?

That game seems like it's the game of the night on the board, lol.

[Illusion]

ganch, if you get a chance I would like to see your thoughts on the Brewers/Cubs and Dodgers/Twins....thanks.

[Ganchrow]

Cubs 62% - This game has a very high degree of uncertainty to it, not because of the usual reason, which is high volatility in one or more areas, but because of strong and conflicting statistical likelihoods. Both Zambrano and the Milwaukee lineup are likely to have strong outings, and both Jackson and the Cubs' lineup are likely to have weak ones. Strong pitching statistical likelihoods take precendence over offensive ones, conferring and edge to the Cubs here. Adding further uncertainty to this game is that minor variations in Zambrano's inning count imply major variations in the expected outcomes of the game.

Minnesota 60% - The most important factor in this game is Lowe's inferior performance in his career on the turf and indoors. He is likely to have troubles again tonight. Liriano has been dominant, however he has faced a weak slate of lineups so far, and the Dodgers' lineup is stronger, especially vs lefties. He has a minor likelihood of a bad outing here. Minnesota does maintain a solid bullpen edge, which is likely to factor in significantly.

[tacomax]

Clemens getting typical run support tonight.

[Ganchrow]

Arizona 57% - Webb is likely to throw a sharp game here, although he is not likely to throw a shutout. Washburn's likely performance has a very high degree of uncertainty, which benefits Seattle here. If the game is close in the later innings, Seattle will have an edge.

[Ganchrow]

Oakland 55% - Oakland rates a small edge in lineup and in starting pitching, and the edge San Diego has in its pen is not likely to factor in unless the game goes to extra innings. Both starters are likely to throw good games, but Zito is slightly more so.

Colorado 56% - Weaver will be vulnerable here vs the Colorado lineup, while Cook is likely to have a strong outing. The Angels will have a strong edge in bullpen depth, which is only moderately likely to matter.