[Ganchrow]

St Louis 53% - Carpenter is likely to have a strong outing. Verlander is as well, but slightly less strong. Everything else in this game rates close to even.

Boston 62% - There is a moderately high degree of uncertainty in this game. Both starters have had high volatility this year. Boston does rate edges in lineup and in starting pitching.

Cleveland 53% - Westbrook is likely to have a lower degree of volatility in the coming months than he has had so far this year. That benefits Cleveland slightly here. Harang is likely to have a good outing. The lineups and bullpens rate even.

Yankees 70% - Moehler is likely to get hit, and Wang is likely to have a strong outing. The Yankees' pen is at full strength for this game, and their recent weakness in that area is likely to be close to a non-factor here. Florida has been playing well but this is a tough spot for them.

Washington 51% - There is a very high degree of uncertainty for this game. Patterson seems to be fully recovered from his injury, although his limited rehab starts went ok but not great. He could be vulnerable vs big league hitting here, and he is not likely to go deep at any rate. The Washington pen is rested and capable, but mediocre and will be vulnerable in this park. On the other side, Lopez has an unusual statistical situation, in that he had a string of decent starts after a bad start to the season, then had one bad start, and now goes off of extended rest. That scenario gives a low degree of certainty to his expected performance. Both lineups are on the weak and slumping side, which benefits Baltimore.

Mets 60% - This is a bas spot for Toronto. Janssen has been having problems and he is likely to get hit here. Glavine is likely to get hit as well, but the Mets have a big bullpen edge for this game. A slight edge in lineup and starting pitching for the Mets gives them a substantial edge for the game.

Atlanta 56% - This game rates roughly even in lineup and bullpen. Atlanta has an edge in starting pitching, but not as great of an edge as it might seem at first glance. Smoltz is likely to have a solid outing, but Fossum is capable of one as well, and his high volatility this year benefits Tampa Bay here. Due to the evenness in all other areas of this game, and to the extreme disparity between Smoltz' strength and the Atlanta bullpen's weakness, small variations in Smoltz' possible performances greatly affect the expected possible outcomes of the game. This gives this game a relatively low confidence factor.

Milwaukee 58% - Bush has had a high degree of volatility this year, which benefits Kansas City. Keppel started the season well, but has since been hit, and his minor league record this year was not good. He is likely to get hit here. Milwaukee has a substantial edge in the pen for this game, which is likely to factor in significantly.

[bigboydan]

St Louis does look perty inticing to me as well tonight ganchrow.

[darkghost]

How do u factor in losing streaks (ie Braves) or winning streaks for that matter into your numbers? Does a long losing streak help or hinder or a team's ability to win?

Thanks for any input

[Ganchrow]

How do u factor in losing streaks (ie Braves) or winning streaks for that matter into your numbers? Does a long losing streak help or hinder or a team's ability to win?

Thanks for any input

That is a very interesting and complicated topic.

The short answer is that "current form" is factored in quite highly. However, current form is not necessarily the same as a literal "streak". A good example of that would be Arizona. They've lost 15 of their last 17 games. So does that factor into our analysis any differently than if they had lost all 17 games, which would put them on a 17 game "streak"? Not at all. Interestingly, when talking about literal "streaks", shorter ones factor in much more than longer ones.

When it comes to a streaky "current form", as both Arizona and Atlanta are in right now, and as Oakland was in a few days ago, the answer to how much that factors in is, it factors in differently in different situations, sometimes a lot, and sometimes less so.

From a betting standpoint of course, if the lines are not taking streaky play into account as much as they should, we do at times wind up repeatedly betting on or against that "streaky" team.

The best example of that I can remember is 2 years ago, in September, I remember Seattle was repeatedly a +200 underdog, and repeatedly won, and we were on them almost every game. Again, I don't remember how big any of their literal winning streaks were, but they were definitely on a streak of form, which to us was essentially a winning streak even if they didn't literally win every game.


Peter.

[bigboydan]

ganchrow, whats your thoughts on the minny/cubs game ?

[Ganchrow]

Minnesota 76% - Santana is likely to throw another very good game here. Marmol will likely have some good outings this year but this is not a good spot for him. His command problems are likely to flare up here in a dome on the road vs the consistent Minnesota lineup.

[Ganchrow]

White Sox 63% - Contreras is likely to throw a solid game here, and the White Sox are likely to hit Pettitte. Pettitte has shows signs of returning to his former level of effectiveness, and that is likely to happen soon, but this game does not present promising circumstances for that. With both teams, the lineup announcement could significantly affect the game percentage one way or the other.

[Ganchrow]

Colorado 59% - Colorado has a bullpen edge in this game which is likely to factor in significantly, and gives them a modest overall edge. Both starters can be very good but are also erratic, giving this game a relatively low confidence factor. Koronka has had a high degree of volatility this year, which benefits Colorado slightly.

[Ganchrow]

Arizona 53% - This game has a very high degree of uncertainty and a corresponding low confidence factor. Gonzalez is somewhat likely to throw a good game. Santana is less likely to throw a good game. The Angels have a modest bullpen edge. Both lineups are weak and slumping.

[Ganchrow]

San Diego 57% - This game has an added degree of uncertainty due to Peavey's health problems this year. His last start was very sharp, and the reports we have seen say he is fine, so we will believe he is, with a small amount of reservation. He should throw another sharp game if he is. Meche is likely to throw another good game as well, although he also had health concerns before his last game, which was very sharp. If this game goes to extra innings, which it is more likely to than most, San Diego will have a small edge.

San Francisco 58% - Schmidt's last poor start was likely a blip, and he is likely to throw a good game here. Blanton has been hit on the road, but he is also likely to throw a good game here in a pitchers' park vs a sub-par offense. The bullpens and lineups are roughly even for this game.

[Ganchrow]

Dodgers 54% - There is a lot of uncertainty for this game, and the confidence factor is very low. Perez has had a very up and down year, and his likely performance is difficult to ascertain. The Dodgers' bullpen has been sub-par recently, and their offense overachieved for a few weeks recently. The Pittsburgh offense had been in a slump, but returned to its more normal level in Kansas City, and they are likely to continue to do well here. Tomko has been getting hit for a while now, and for this start he has had a lot of rest, so he is more likely than normal to have a good outing.

[RickySteve]

I have a "current form" strategy I use at the craps tables. Very successful.