NC...stay away from the whole "picking a winner" versus "beating the closer" argument. That's not a good place to go.
Think of it this way. You bet the Cubs -105 and the closing number was +105. Regardless of whether the Cubs win, this is a bad bet because you missing out on 10 cents of value. If you are continually missing out on this ten cents of value over 500 or 1000 plays, you are getting killed long term.
Who makes more money? The 53% bettor over 100 plays who averages -110 in juice or the 53% bettor over 100 plays that averages -105?
When you play less juice by beating the efficiency of the closing line, you are a long term winner. Period.
http://www.pinnaclesports.com/bettin.../sharp-players
That link should help...