[Ganchrow]

Mets 62% - Milton is more effective this year than he has been in the past, and he is doing especially well on the road where he is less likely to give up home runs. Martinez is very likely to have a strong outing. The Mets again have a bullpen edge.

[bigboydan]

i have a small lean toward the reds in this game myself ganch.


you have anything on the Minnesota/Houston game ?

[Ganchrow]

Texas 57% - Both rookie starters bring a lot of uncertainty to this game. San Diego maintains a bullpen edge here, which is likely to factor in significantly. The confidence factor for this game is very low.

[moses millsap]

Interested in seeing your thoughts on the Toronto/Atlanta total of 9.5 if possible.

[Ganchrow]

Interested in seeing your thoughts on the Toronto/Atlanta total of 9.5 if possible.

The factors that go into our baseball totals are more nuanced than those that go into our money lines, but some of our totals picks are implied by the write-ups.

For this game we like the under, which we took at -106. Of course Burnett is the big question mark, and while we have very little statistically to go on with him, he has been good in the minors, his velocity has been good, and the reports we have read are positive in general, so we think he'll do well based on that. Ramirez is a guy who is well-suited to his home park, like Jamie Moyer and a few others, so we see a relatively good game from him as well. The danger will come with the bullpens, but for now we have the under. If you are going to take the under, taking the 5 inning under (which is right now at 5 +111 on Pinnacle) we would say is a better play.

[Ganchrow]

Baltimore 51% - Olsen is likely to throw a quality start here, as is Benson. This game rates close to even in all aspects.

Toronto 57% - Both starters are likely to have good outings, but Burnett's is likely to be a bit better. Toronto has a modest edge in its pen and lineup as well.

[darkghost]

are more analysis coming for the later games?

today seems a funny/interesting day for bases. braves are on a huge losing streak. the wacky games between StL & Chi now throw in the mix Pujols coming back. Clemens back on the mound. i'm leaning minny but waiting to see ur analysis.

[Ganchrow]

Minnesota 58% - Clemens is a big question mark, but an off day from Liriano, while more likely for him as a rookie than for other starters with his recent performances, is unlikely. Minnesota also has a modest bullpen edge here.

White Sox 62% - Reyes is likely to be a good starter this year, but this is not a good spot to bring him in. He is likely to have a solid outing, but there is also a chance he could get hit hard. Garcia is likely to have a quality start. The edges the White Sox have in their pen and lineup confer a big overall edge to them. Possible lineup changes could affect the percentage significantly.

[Illusion]

ganch, do you have any thoughts on the Sea/LAD game?

[Ganchrow]

Dodgers 58% - Lowe is likely to throw a good game. Hernandez has had a high degree of volatility, which benefits the Dodgers here. The Dodgers' pen has been hit recently, and they will be vulnerable again here, although Lowe's performance is likely to minimize the impact of the pen's weakness.

[Illusion]

That was fast, thanks ganch.

[bigboydan]

my numbers weren't quite as high as yours are on this sea/dodgers game. i ended going with seattle on this one ganchrow.

[Ganchrow]

my numbers weren't quite as high as yours are on this sea/dodgers game. i ended going with seattle on this one ganchrow.

Actually after the lineups were factored in our number was reduced, we wound up on the side of Seattle as well.

[Illusion]

my numbers weren't quite as high as yours are on this sea/dodgers game. i ended going with seattle on this one ganchrow.

What were your numbers?

[bigboydan]

my numbers had seattle at 51%

[Illusion]

Dodgers 58% - Lowe is likely to throw a good game. Hernandez has had a high degree of volatility, which benefits the Dodgers here. The Dodgers' pen has been hit recently, and they will be vulnerable again here, although Lowe's performance is likely to minimize the impact of the pen's weakness.

Thanks for the winner ganch. I was just gonna pass on this one until I saw your writeup.

[bigboydan]

ILL, did you miss ganchrow's follow up post on that game.

Actually after the lineups were factored in our number was reduced, we wound up on the side of Seattle as well.

[Illusion]

No I didn't see the follow up because my bet was already placed. Either way, I won.