[Ganchrow]

Mets 53% - Ramirez has had unusually low volatility for a rookie, but this is a spot where he will be more vulnerable to getting hit than any of his other starts. Trachsel however, is also likely to have a mediocre outing. The Mets rate an edge in the pen, although for this game Cincinnati will be at maximum strength.

Florida 51% - This game has a high degree of uncertainty, due to Cabrera'a control problems. He is likely to have a good outing here, however. Willis has also been up and down this year, and his relatively high likelihood of having an off day clashes with Baltimore's sustained terrible record vs lefties.

Boston 65% - Wakefield is likely to have another quality outing, and Hernandez is off of a tough game where he labored with a lot of pitches, and he is likely to get hit here. Boston is likely to score a bunch off of Hernandez and the extended Washington pen.

Cleveland 64% - Maddux is likely to be better soon, although this is not a promising spot for that to happen. Lee is likely to have a mediocre outing, as the Cubs offense is likely to come back down from their explosion last game.

Yankees 57% - Both starters are likely to have mediocre outings, which benefits Philadelphia. Philadelphia does not have the edge in the pen for this game that they would normally have.

Tampa Bay 58% - Hendrickson has been worse at home this year, and he is likely to have another modest outing. However, Tampa Bay rates sizable edges in both lineup and bullpen today. Batista is likely to throw a solid outing.

Atlanta 52% - Towers is a big question mark here, but he may have found his touch in the minors, as he pitched decently. Atlanta is having problems in all areas, and while Sosa is likely to throw a quality start, their bullpen and lineup problems give Toronto an edge.

[bigboydan]

i feel Cincinnati is the way to go in that game ganchrow.



anything on the San Diego/Texas game ?

[moses millsap]

I'm interested in the Pitt/KC and Oak/Col games.

Boston 65% - Wakefield is likely to have another quality outing, and Hernandez is off of a tough game where he labored with a lot of pithces, and he is likely to get hit here. Boston is likely to score a bunch off of Hernandez and the extended Washington pen.

I hope you're wrong on this one.

[Ganchrow]

I hope you're wrong on this one.

Actually we adjusted our percentage for that game a bit more in Boston's favor later on, closer to 70%.

[Ganchrow]

Pittsburgh 54% - There is a very high degree of uncertainty for this game, and our confidence factor is low. Wells is the big question. We think he will have a good outing, but that is based entirely on anecdotal research. His last start in the minors was effective. Redman has a high degree of uncertainty as well, but is likely to have a mediocre outing. Pittsburgh's bullpen edge will be greatly reduced for this game, but they still maintain a minor one.

[moses millsap]

Actually we adjusted our percentage for that game a bit more in Boston's favor later on, closer to 70%.

More like 90%, lol.

[Ganchrow]

Oakland 52% - There is a high degree of uncertainty surrounding Loaiza here. Jennings, on the other hand, is likely to have a mediocre outing. The Oakland pen is at full strength for this game. Both lineups rate about even.

[Ganchrow]

Angels 51% - Both lineups are weak and struggling right now, but Lackey and the Angels' pen are likely to have a better game than Morris and the San Francisco pen. A tied game benefits San Francisco slightly, but a small lead will benefit the Angels more than it normally would.

Dodgers 69% - The Dodgers have a strong edge here. Penny is likely to throw a good game, and his tendency toward high pitch counts and relatively early exits will hurt the Dodgers at a minimum in this game. The Dodgers' pen is capable and rested, and Piniero is likely to get hit, so the Dodger pen will likely have room for error.