I agree that this is the time of the year to look for good value on the plus side. My take on this season is that it's different in that there are so few races left so not many teams playing with significance in losing. Only real races left are Boston/Yankees (and that's debateable since they'll both make it to the postesason) and Texas/Angels. The Giants, Indians, and White Sox are in desperation mode and thus might feel pressure to win so they could be susceptible to dogs when applicable for another week or so but they may be close to fade material when they are virtually eliminated (very soon). Conversely, the D'backs and Tigers are playing with confidence right now and for the first time this year feel like they could afford to lose a game and still not be concerned (not playing afraid to lose)...good to tail. Of course with all that, value needs to be determined in the day to day lines.
Other teams aren't really motivated now so it becomes a matter of finding a hot pitcher (rarely good value there) or play a total with a hot or cold hitting team.
Looking at today's card wiih this in mind, home dogs are Toronto, Tampa, Minnesota that qualify. Then analyze those games for value.
Just my two cents but not as many opportunities in September as there might ordinarily be.
I think those are all valid points, I struggle at picking the right dogs unless I'm giving them the +1.5 handicap in a parlay to buffer against not winning SU. I due tend to rely on the must-win theory but I think that can be overstated in baseball as opposed to other sports.
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