[Ganchrow]

Boston 62% - This game has an extremely high degree of uncertainty and a low confidence number. Cormier has very little statistically to evaluate. Beckett is slightly more likely to throw a good game than a bad one, but his performances have been very unusual, and it would not be surprising to hear of an injury soon. The expected performances for the starters, lineups, and bullpens are all poor, which gives an edge to Atlanta.

Yankees 60% - Chacon is likely to have a strong outing here. He was pitching well before he got hurt, and after a game back he is likely to resume his effective form. Going in a pitchers' park vs a weaker offense enhances that likelihood. Ortiz is also likely to have a quality start, but very unlikely to have a strong start. The Yankees' significant edge in their lineup gives them a moderate edge in the game.

[bigboydan]

not a game i'm playing myself today ganchrow. but, i do have a small lean twords the braves in this game.

[Ganchrow]

San Diego 54% - The key to this game is Peavy, and how injured he really is. It is possible he will be fine and shut the Angels down, but we believe that is not likely to be the case, although that is not based on any statistical foundation, but rather on the reports that have been coming out on his condition over the past few weeks. While this confers an edge to the Angels, their pitching situation for this game is not good either. Their bullpen has been overworked, and Santana has exhibited a meaningful vulnerability in the daytime, when the ball carries more at home. Significantly more runs are scored in the daytime than at night in Angel stadium, and that protection Santana benefits from at night is also what he misses on the road, causing his less effective performances. Despite the major questions surrounding Peavey, San Diego rates an edge from the even bigger issues with the Angels today.

Detroit 65% - Marmol threw well in his first start, in an outing that demonstrated his upside. This game however, he is likely to display his downside. His problems in AA were with command and control, and with an ump that should have a tight zone, vs Detroit's top-notch offense, he will be very vulnerable. Verlander hit a small bump vs some tough teams recently, but he is likely to have another strong outing here, vs the weak and slumping Cubs' offense. The Cubs do have a small pen edge for this game, but it factors in at a minimum.

San Francisco 66% - Schmidt has been dominant this season and until he has an outing or a stretch that suggests otherwise, it should be expected to continue. Meche has had a nagging injury of late, and even on his top game, is not able to match Schmidt inning for inning. He is likely to have a mediocre game here.

[bigboydan]

this game is too tough for me to call bud, so i'm just passing on it.

on a side note.

i see vlad isn't playing today, so you gotta like that ganch.

[Ganchrow]

Toronto 59% - Janssen has been effective this year and is likely to have a quality start here. Moehler is likely to get hit, however the few runs of variance in his expected performance are statistically more critical than in most other games, giving this game a low confidence factor.

White Sox 63% - Contreras is roughly back to where he was before his injury, and he is likely to continue with a good game here. Milton has been effective this year on the road but he has struggled at home, and that is for real reasons, as the Cincinnati park is particularly ill-suited to his style of pitching. The White Sox are likely to take advantage of that weakness as they did yesterday with Claussen, a similarly-styled lefty.

[bigboydan]

the way the fish are playing as of late, i just can't fade them today.

passing on this game myself ganchrow.

[Ganchrow]

Pittsburgh 58% - Maholm is likely to have a quality start here, and Bonser is likely to have a mediocre start, which along with playing at home, confers a solid edge to Pittsburgh. Every other factor for this game is very close between the two teams.

Tampa Bay 60% - Kazmir has a high degree of volatility, but he is likely to have a strong outing here. Benefits to Tampa Bay from that are greatly mitigated by their pen, which is likely to be exposed here due to Kazmir's propensity for high pitch counts. They will be vulnerable vs the tough Philadelphia hitters in this park. Mathieson is a big question mark, but the jump from AA to facing Tampa Bay in this park does not bode well for him. Tampa Bay's offense has not produced well vs strong big league pitching, but they should jump on Mathieson here.

Milwaukee 58% - Westbrook is likely to get hit here, and Bush is likely to have a solid start. Bush's last rough outing was likely an aberration, which confers an edge to Milwaukee. Westbrook has had a very high degree of volatility, which benefits Milwaukee.

[Ganchrow]

Texas 70% - Koronka is likely to have a solid start here, both from a statistical standpoint, and from a researched standpoint, as he has supposedly identified a mechanical flaw in his last start that was preventing him from keeping the ball down. If he has successfully fixed it, the slumping Arizona offense is not likely to give him problems. Arizona's pitching plan for this game is a bad mix with the Texas offense in this park. Texas rates a major edge in this game.

[bigboydan]

anything on the A's/Dodgers game ganchrow ?

[Ganchrow]

Dodgers 53% - The Dodgers rate a small edge with Lowe over Saarloos, but only a small one. A close low-scoring game favors Oakland slightly. The Dodgers' lineup has a relaitvely high degree of volatility which benefits Oakland slightly as well.

[Ganchrow]

anything on the A's/Dodgers game ganchrow ?

All the lines I've seen have been right at the number we have for the game, and they have barely moved all day.

[tacomax]

Milwaukee 58% - Westbrook is likely to get hit here, and Bush is likely to have a solid start.

Westbrook is an oddball. He can get knocked about most games and then he comes through today and pitches a scoreless 8 innings (aside from a fielding error). Unless I'm mistaken and/or thinking of someone else, that's the 3rd appearance within about a month where he hasn't allowed neither a run nor a walk.

[bigboydan]

Milwaukee just won this game 3-2

this game was wild indeed though. westbrook pitched a gem, and even drove in an rbi. meanwhile, bush was throwing wild early and often. it's truely amazing how cleveland didn't score more runs than the 2 runs they scored.

[onlooker]

Westbrook is an oddball. He can get knocked about most games and then he comes through today and pitches a scoreless 8 innings (aside from a fielding error). Unless I'm mistaken and/or thinking of someone else, that's the 3rd appearance within about a month where he hasn't allowed neither a run nor a walk.

Even though he didnt give up much, the Tribe just lost. Classic Wickman, giving the game away.

[darkghost]

I'm happy bout that. Woke up just in time to catch that.